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Sunway was a good placed horse at 16/1 after being well-supported, but the others were poor. Tees Spirit was on the wrong side of the track, which happens so often in the big field sprints, one side of the track is the place to be and if you're on the other side then you have no chance. Spycatcher was the worst performance, he was terrible and I expected so much more.
Doncaster 3:35 – Cachet 9/4 (1pt WHill)
Going for Cachet is obviously a big risk because she hasn't run in 457 days, but if she is firing on all cylinders, this should be her race to win.
This isn't a particularly strong race, and Cachet is the best horse in the race, even over 7f. She won the 1000 Guineas last year and was kept to the top level for obvious reasons, where she was 2nd in the French 1000 Guineas and then 5th/12 in the Coronation Stakes which was won by Inspiral. If you compare the races Cachet has won and run in, this is such a downgrade and if she possesses anywhere near the same level of ability of last year, she should have far too much class, but a lot of the doubts has to be based on the long layoff, which raises eyebrows on her fitness/wellbeing. However, you've got to think that they could've easily retired her and she would've been a very expensive broodmare, so they have no reason to keep running her unless she is still performing at home.
The drop to 7f isn't a concern to me, she has always shown plenty of pace in her races and it was more of a surprise when she did win the 1000 Guineas because I didn't think she would stay the trip out. The ground is still soft, but it has to dry out to at least good to soft, and will probably be that ‘tacky' ground, so her added stamina over 7f is going to be an advantage. She seems to handle any ground and with the yard and jockey being in top form, there's very little against her, other than the fitness questions.
Doncaster 4:10 – Rogue Lightning 2/1 (1pt Bet365)
I can't believe only four horses have turned up for this Listed race, especially with 34k up for grabs to the winner, but with what there is I think Rogue Lightning can win a maiden Class 1 race.
Raasel is the class angle in the race, and that is why he is the top-rated in the race, but I feel like the sprinting division is one of the only divisions where handicappers can bridge the gap to Class 1 level with the least amount of fuss. Rogue Lightning has been in tremendous form of late and has won his last two handicaps, and the form of those wins look fairly solid. He recorded an RPR of 114 at the Shergar Cup meeting when beating Intrinsic Bond by 1.75L. The runner-up has been running very solid races in a lot of the top sprint handicaps this year, and he finished 3rd in the Portland yesterday to frank that form even further.
The pace of this race might be muddling but I'd imagine that Fine Wine would run from the front and ensure a true gallop is set, he is an out-and-out front runner, and even if it does become muddling I think Rogue Lightning will have the tactical nouse to win as she is 2/2 since transitioning to a 5f sprinter. The slower ground raises a few questions, but it won't be bottomless and his pedigree suggests he should be fine.
Doncaster - 3:35 pm
9/4 @ William Hill
Doncaster - 4:10 pm