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2.10 Kempton
LEWISHAM (nap)
Placed in four of seven starts. Beaten a nose by Robot Boy when second of 11 at evens fav on his latest outing at Doncaster over 5f (good) last month.
4.10 Kempton
NEAMOUR @ 7/1 PADDYPOWER
Placed once in three starts. Third of 4 behind Lilbourne Eliza beaten 2l at 9-4jt-fav on her latest outing at Chester over 7f (heavy) in September last year.
Got to mention STREET POWER 6/1 in the 4.40 at Kempton. I own quite a few shares in this one. Will it win? I doubt it but hopefully get some nice place money. RED LARKSPUR (13/8) will be the horse to beat in this one.
3.50 Yarmouth
ATHLETIC @ 5/1 BET365
A winner at 7f on the all-weather. Beaten 1l by Mary's Pet when second of 9 at 4-5 fav on his latest outing at Lingfield over 7f in March. Having his first run for a new stable, previously with J R Jenkins.
5.20 Yarmouth
THE DUCKING STOOL @ 12/1 BET365
She has won three times from 1m 2f to 1m 3f on good to firm and good ground. Well beaten at 12-1 behind Day Of Destiny when last of 10 on her latest outing at Southwell over 1m 3f last month.
2.30 Fakenham
NOT TILL MONDAY @ 1/2 BETVICTOR
Winner of six hurdle races from 2m to 2m 4f on ground varying from good to heavy. A winner at 5-2 in a selling hurdle race at Stratford over 2m (good) on his latest outing last month, beating Swift Lord by 7l.
3.30 Fakenham
COWARDS CLOSE @ SP
A winner at 6-1 in a hurdle race at Exeter over 2m 7f (soft) on his latest outing last month, beating Return Spring by 5l.
4.0 Fakenham
THEMILANHORSE @ 7/4 PADDYPOWER
Winner of four hurdle races, a NH flat race and a chase from 2m 1f to 3m on ground varying from good to firm to good to soft. Won on his latest outing in a chase when 11-10 fav at Southwell over 3m (good) last month, beating Flichity by 3 1/2l.
4.30 Fakenham
LITTLE LEGEND @ 8/15 BET365
A winner at 5-1 in a chase at Folkestone over 3m 2f (good) on his latest outing in May last year, beating Behind The Scenes by 4 1/2l.
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
hi milesey you got good double at kempton and good single at kempton :)
Magique 6/4
4:10 Kempton
Red Larkspur 9/4
4:40 Kempton
Milesey
14:10 Kempton Park
1st 2. Lewisham 1.05
14:30 Fakenham
1st 1. Not Til Monday 1.36
Milesey
15:30 Fakenham
1st 1. Cowards Close 1.52
16:00 Fakenham
1st 2. Themilanhorse 3.36
16:10 Kempton
1st 7. Thwart
2nd 4. Neamour 9.01
16:30 Fakenham
1st 1. Little Legend 1.49
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2.30 Fakenham
NOT TILL MONDAY ** 1st **
3.30 Fakenham
COWARDS CLOSE ** 1st **
4.0 Fakenham
THEMILANHORSE ** 1st **
4.30 Fakenham
LITTLE LEGEND ** 1st **
2.10 Kempton
LEWISHAM (nap) ** 1st **
4.10 Kempton
NEAMOUR ** 2nd **
Milesey
KEMPTON PLACEPOT
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14:10 – Right, first leg and we are going to take on short-price favourite Lewisham with… Actually no I’m just joking, we’re going to do no such thing. Lewisham, currently trading at 1.09, is definitely a banker.
14:40 – The Tom Dascombe-trained Noble Bacchus, who is out of the Irish Oaks-winning mare Vintage Tipple, is expected to step up on the form he showed in a trio of maidens now handicapping and granted a test of stamina. A small amount of early market support is certainly a positive so we are quite happy to side solely with him.
15:10 – The third leg is quite a trappy event as none of the 10 participants make any great appeal. The two that appear to hold the best claims of hitting the places are Flow Chart and Bold Ring, with them both coming into this race in relatively decent form and boasting fairly consistent profiles.
15:40 – Victorian Number’s two recent attempts at six furlongs have resulted in an improvement upon her latest form but, such was the impression created when she tasted success at this venue in March, she ought to go well racing from a mark just 4 lb higher despite today’s race being staged over a furlong further.
16:10 – World Map is a non-runner, reducing this field to seven and leaving us with just the two places to aim at. A number of the remaining participants look open to further improvement so we will need to take two, namely Thwart and Magique, as we attempt to make it through unscathed.
16:40 – I tried to talk myself into including Red Larkspur as a banker, as the four-year-old has every chance of following-up her win at Lingfield in March were she to turn up in the same form here, but the case to be made isn’t quite compelling enough so we shall also stick in Street Power. The eight-year-old hasn’t really fired since scoring at Ascot in July but he has now slipped back down to a workable mark and ought to appreciate the return to six furlongs.
Selections:
14:10 – 2
14:40 – 2
15:10 – 1, 2
15:40 – 2
16:10 – 1, 7
16:40 – 1, 3
= 8 lines
Milesey
MARKET MOVERS
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This afternoon’s market movers come from the meetings at Fakenham, Kempton, and Yarmouth…
Fakenham
15:00
Peak Seasons 3.75 out to 5.3
Monroe Park 14.5 in to 6.4
16:00
Massini Lotto 6.6 in to 4.1
17:00
Grimley Girl 15.0 in to 6.6
Kempton
14:10
Lewisham 1.18 in to 1.09
14:40
Noble Bacchus 7.6 in to 4.4
15:10
Bold Ring 8.0 in to 6.0
15:40
Custom House 10.0 in to 6.6
16:10
Magique 3.05 in to 2.5
High Time Too 13.0 in to 9.2
16:40
Street Power 8.2 in to 5.6
17:10
Yahilwa 5.1 in to 3.75
17:40
Edgware Road 7.5 in to 5.0
Yarmouth
14:20
Autumns Blush 1.99 in to 1.58
Mimi Luke 3.9 out to 5.0
14:50
Speedyfix 4.0 out to 6.2
Beauty Pageant 6.8 in to 4.9
15:20
Jack Barker 3.55 in to 2.85
15:50
Jonnie Skull 3.8 out to 4.9
Norse Song 20.0 in to 12.0
16:20
Cross My Heart 3.44 in to 2.48
17:20
Landesherr 7.5 in to 4.9
Milesey
IPL CRICKET
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Rajasthan Royals v Delhi Daredevils
Start Time: 11:30 BST
TV: Live on ITV4 and ITV.com
Rajasthan Royals
The Royals made it six home wins from six when they mounted a successful run chase against Pune on Sunday and that victory kept them in the top four play-off places, just ahead of the Sunrisers on net run rate. That perfect record was severely tested however, as Rajasthan had just one ball remaining when Stuart Binny scored the winning runs in a nervous finish.
Having tinkered with the side in their defeat against Kolkata, Rajasthan recalled Brad Hodge and their batting looked far more balanced, even if the veteran Australian failed to make an impact. With Rahul Dravid and Ajinkya Rahane putting on 98 for the first wicket, they could even afford a rare failure from Shane Watson but while the batting was undoubtedly impressive, there will be some concerns ahead of this game over a bowling attack that conceded 178 in twenty overs against a poor Pune side.
Delhi Daredevils
Many had expected Delhi to struggle after losing some key batsmen before the tournament had begun but it’s still a little surprising to see them effectively eliminated at this relatively early stage. With David Warner, Mahela Jaywardene and Virender Sehwag in the side, the Daredevils arguably have the strongest top three in the competition but they have received little support from the batters below them.
Delhi have no hope of qualifying for the knockouts so we could see some changes in their line up. Gulam Bodi is an Indian born South African international who scores consistently in T20 around the world while West Indian Andre Russell can be a threat with bat and ball.
It may be a cliché but a team with nothing to lose can be dangerous and with the Royals showing a slight stutter at the important end of the group stages, Delhi have every chance of causing an upset.
Venue and Conditions
Over those six matches at the Sawai Mansingh Stadium, the average first innings score has been 157 but that has picked up over the last three matches. It’s a fast scoring ground that tends to get faster as the tournament progresses so 170 should be a minimum target for the team taking first knock.
It’s an afternoon game with temperatures heading for an uncomfortable low forties centigrade with no hint of cloud cover throughout the forty overs.
Match Odds
Rajasthan’s 100% record at home helps to make them favourites at 1.77 while the Daredevils are out at 2.12 for the win. It’s debatable as to how much advantage you claim as the home team in T20 but the Royals’ run suggests that there is some benefit.
However, it’s also true that these matches remain wildly unpredictable and with the pressure now taken away from Delhi, they should improve and claim the points here.
Rajasthan Top Batsman
Shane Watson remains favourite at 3.30 and after a century and a 98 in this tournament could be your obvious choice. Elsewhere, Ajinkya Rahane top scored in the most recent win over Pune and is on offer at 4 but Brad Hodge is overdue a major contribution and would be my pick here at a very generous 6.0.
Delhi Top Batsman
The Daredevils may rest some players making this hard to call but the clear favourite is David Warner at 3.5. Meanwhile, Virender Sehwag can be found at 3.9 with the skipper Jayawardene out at 4.1.
There are other contenders but Warner has been the most consistent Delhi player and the only one who had been keeping them in with a slim chance of qualification. With the pressure released, the Aussie left hander is set for a big score.
Recommended Bet
Back Delhi to win at 2.12
Milesey
Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders
Start time: 15.30BST
TV: live on ITV4
Mumbai Indians
The Indians went third after they ended Chennai Super Kings’ winning sequence. They did it in impressive style, too. After posting a meagre 139, they looked cooked but their bowling display was magnificent as they skittled Chennai for just 79. Mitchell Johnson and Pragyan Ojha took three wickets each as they chalked up a victory margin of 60 runs. Still, it would be complacent of them not to look at their problems with the bat. Indeed, they have a difficult question to answer: is Sachin Tendulkar worth his place? He has had a terrible IPL so far, recording only 186 runs at 16.90. A strike rate of 116 is not as high as it could be as well. With Ricky Ponting discarded after a horror show with the willow, Mumbai have few options.
Kolkata Knight Riders
The Knight Riders are struggling to defend their crown. Just as they appear to have built momentum, they go on a losing run. Victories have preceded a three-game and two-game losing streak. So it will be interesting to see whether they can put together back-to-back wins for the first time in the tournament after beating Rajasthan Royals. They have lost the services of Brendon McCullum, who has left to be with the New Zealand squad in England. As a result Shakib-al-Hasan, Ryan McLaren and Ryan ten Doeschate will be looking to hold down a regular slot.
First-innings runs
Here are the first-innings totals at the Wankhede Staium in last year’s IPL and the current edition (most recent on the right): 129-197-92–163-100-173-141-140-209-183-194-174-139. That is an average of 156. You will spot that Mumbai’s total against Chennai was irregular. Indeed, both side’s batted as if they were on a terror track, in particular Chennai who never looked interested in chasing the total. We went for more than 160 in that match and the study period is long, and strong, enough to reckon that it’s a decent wager again. However, we’ll be smarter and go for more than 150 at reduced odds just in case this is a fallow period.
Match odds
Three of Kolkata’s four victories have come when they have been batting second. So before you dive in by taking the 2.50 on offer, it may be wise to wait to see if they get to play their favoured way. There is not much fun backing Mumbai at 1.60. And given their problems with their top order, we can forsee a situation (again) when they are two down for very little on the board. That could be the time to back them. As usual, however, we think there is too great a gulf in price and KKR should comfortably trade as favourites at some stage. Of course the problem with that is one requires large stakes to get decent returns. But over the course of a season this strategy will pay good dividends even with bits and bobs here and there.
Top Mumbai runscorer
With Tendulkar and Ponting in hopeless form, Rohit Sharma is Mumbai’s top runscorer with 414 runs. Dwayne Smith, with 62 from 45 balls, top scored in the previous meeting and he could be a decent wager at 3.50 given he is slotted for an opening berth.
Top Kolkata runscorer
Gautam Gambhir and Eoin Morgan were the Mr Reliable for KKR in the early stages. But Jacques Kallis has made a return and is catching them up at the top of the charts. He had a sluggish start but looks in ominous touch. Indeed, he top scored when the sides last met and will go off around 4.00.
Recommended bet
150 or more first-innings runs at 1.90
Milesey
thanks milesey
GREYHOUND RACING TIPS
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The ‘Three Steps to Victory’ final – live on Sky Sports
7:30pm SKY SPORTS 2
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Three Steps
T1 Jazz Tilly
Very consistent bitch, who is rarely out of the first three and one of only two finalists with 600m form. Runner-up in a Monmore 630m contest in March (arguably has her best form there). Three from five record in trap one. Solid performer who can run both on and off the pace.
T2 Romeo Recruit
Unbeaten in four races over four bends here (even mix of 480/500m) including an easy win in a competition here in December. Unbeaten in the Produce (also runner-up in the Swindon version) last year. Untried beyond 500m but breeding suggest should handle the trip.
T3 Welton Arthur
Course and distance specialist who should come into his own back up in trip. Lightly raced this year (two wins from five) but runner-up in the Yorkshire Leger last season. Can sometimes have his own ideas but the most likely winner.
T4 Hather George
Has won his last five races here over 480/500m but another untried beyond that trip. Eclipse finalist last year (got no run) and in red hot form with ten victories in his last twelve outings.
T5 Castlelyons Cofi
Twice behind Romeo Recruit in the preliminaries and also yet to race beyond 500m. Finalist in the Harolds Cross Puppy Derby last year. Best form recently has been at Coventry. Trap five draw means he will need to do everything right
T6 Bubbly Jaytee
Dual S1 winner over 575m at Romford recently but has won only one of his last twenty Opens and a fair bit to find on his form in the two qualifying rounds for this.
Verdict
Welton Arthur will be far more at home over this trip than he has been during the four bend qualifying rounds and given his excellent record over the course and distance rates the most likely winner, albeit that he has been priced up accordingly. If he stays, and the general view appears that he will, Romeo Recruit, boosted by an unbeaten record over four bends at this track, would be an obvious threat, but it remains an ‘if’. Therefore, Jazz Tilly, a solid performer over six bends elsewhere, and with a favourable draw, might be a better value alternative.
19:34 Puppy
Teddy The Legend, a littermate of Golden Wonder and Young Golden, looks a cut above these and rates the night’s best bet. A draw outside railer Swift Ulster can only add to his claims. Droopys Odell, a bang railer, was runner-up in a messy Gymcrack final and is best of the rest.
19:49 Hurdles
Soviet Military has been in good form but hasn’t been round here and can be taken on with Green Amigo, was an A1 performer here previously and could hardly have posted a better trial.
20:04 Stayers
Plenty of possibilities here including Granard Bound, who looks over-priced, but hasn’t won too many recently. Hather Sherlock has been in good form but has a tricky draw to cheat, so Swabys Princess, who likes it here, gets the slimmest of votes.
20:19 480m
Bucks Blade hasn’t run since last July but was a Derby quarter-finalist and has a three from record over CD. His trials suggest he can bounce straight back. Longwood Fantasy has obvious claims but Phanters Capri is a more price friendly alternative.
20:34 Marathon
Not an easy one to solve although Bubbly Capel, open to more improvement on her third race back after a long absence, gets the nod. Aero Rebel can be vulnerable at tracks unfamiliar to her but has oodles of class.
20:49 Sprint
The race of the night by some way but hard to oppose Golden Sprint winner Farloe Barracuda who has an excellent record over this CD. If there is to be a surprise, well drawn Demesne Tornado, who has beaten the selection here before, is far too big in the betting.
21:04 500m
Many Are Called will be popular especially after brother Farloe Warhawk’s clock breaking win the other night, but Pats Legacy likes it here (four wins in his last five over CD) and offers a shade more value.
Recommended Bets
Teddy The Legend 19:34
Farloe Barracuda 20:49
Bucks Blade 20:19
Welton Arthur 21:19
Green Amigo 19:49
Milesey
CHESTER WEDNESDAY
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LIVE ON CHANNEL 4
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It is a typically difficult card on day one of the Chester May meeting, though, so the honest advice is to keep stakes low. But there are three possible value plays, headed by Theology in the feature race at 14:45.
Now, at first viewing, this horse doesn’t have an obvious chance at odds of 24.0 on Betfair. But dig a bit further and he is not without hope.
He didn’t cut the mustard in two starts over hurdles over the winter but there was definite promise in his fifth on the all-weather at Kempton last month. That will have tuned him up nicely and he is arguably the best handicapped horse in here on the form that he showed for Jeremy Noseda in Group races, albeit two or three years ago.
He is now 11lb lower than when third to Berling and Tominator here, with Ile de Re in behind, over 1m6f two years ago, so handles the course. And he was just touched off in the Queen’s Vase in his pomp, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue either, and fast ground is ideal. All in all, I’ve seen far worse 20+ chances.
Smugglers Gold didn’t start his career too promisingly when last of eight on his debut in March, but he could just underline the progress he has made since by taking the Lily Agnes Stakes at 13:45. Odds of around 13.0 would be fair.
To be fair, he missed the break on his first start, but has looked much better since, posting a couple of good speed figures in the context of this race when third at Leicester and when winning decisively at Lingfield last time.
He certainly can’t afford to miss the kick here – which is maybe why connections have put the visor back on that he wore at Leicester – but he is well berthed in stall two and is worth chancing at a price in this better company.
There were plenty of glum faces after Elik was beaten at Wolverhampton last month, as apparently she had been showing up very well at home for a horse with relatively modest form at two. But I suspect that her odds-on backers got very unlucky there as the winner, debutante Woodland Aria, is apparently heading to the Lingfield Oaks Trial next.
The bare form of that second still leaves Elik with plenty to find on the book here. But she is going the right way and she is certainly bred to appreciate the 2f step up in trip, being by Dalakhani out of a French Group 2 winner over 1m2f110yd. She is worth a shot in the 14:15, which looks a very winnable listed race. She would rate a fair bet at around the 10.0 mark when betting settles down.
Silvanus did look very interesting in the 15:15 after his third at Epsom last time, especially as he won over course and distance last season, when making all. But that will be very difficult from stall nine here, so he is reluctantly passed over. It wouldn’t surprise me were Gatepost to run a big race from a falling handicap mark, but the more I look, the more this race looks a no-play event to me.
Recommended Bets
Back Theology in the Chester Cup, 14:45
Back Smuggler’s Gold in the Lily Agnes Stakes, 13:45
Back Elik in the Chester Oaks, 14:15
Milesey
kempton 5.40 no 4 i will have some of that :)
and my double catterick 6.10 no4 and exeter 6.55 no 5 :)
milesey who you think will win catterick 6.10 i think joe fanning should get his own way in front