Friday’s Free Racing Tips: Surprise Value looks the value bet at Aintree

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What a fantastic day of racing we have on Friday. Before we go any further hats off to Rizzel with his last selection of the day, The Last Day winning at 12/1! Well done mate!

I’ve decided on two selections both at the meeting at Aintree.

Aintree 2:20

Jonbon was no match for Constitution Hill at Cheltenham but his effort was nothing to be ashamed off and that form stands him pretty hard to beat if showing anything of the sort.

That being said I’ve decided to look elsewhere in the field for some value and I narrowed it down to SURPRISE PACKAGE.

If we are to assume Jonbon wins the race and there’s no upset then 2nd place looks up for grabs between First Street and Surprise Package. Market wise, First Street is clear 2nd favourite at 4/1 and my selection Surprise Package is 12s but I don’t believe for a second there’s that much between these two horses to suggest Surprise Package should be as big as 12/1.

First Street on official ratings is actually the same as Jonbon although I still feel strongly that Jonbon is the classier act.

Surprise Package and First Street met last month in the County Hurdle when Surprise Package finished around 4 lengths behind the Henderson runner. If you catch a replay of the race I thought Surprise Package looked more threatening 2 out but unfortunately found nothing up the hill.

There’s an argument made that maybe the run came too soon and that the race a week prior to that at Sandown, which is also a stiff track, took it out of him. Then there’s the other side of the coin that maybe he was just beaten on the day by better horses. At the prices I’m willing to take the gamble.

Aintree 2:55

Only 4 runners in this race and it’s crazy to say that this looks a two horse race between L’Homme Presse and BRAVEMANSGAME given the quality that both Ahoy Senior and Fury Road pose.

This race will be won by who makes a mistake in their jumping, especially if the mistake comes towards the business end. The top two in the market at present can’t be split price wise with both horses being priced currently at 11/8.

Both Bravemansgame and L’Homme Presse are fantastic jumpers and it could happen that neither horse makes any mistake in their jumping and they both have to fight it out to the line.

Nicholls wasn’t a happy man in his interview at Cheltenham when he decided on withdrawing Bravemansgame due to unsuitable ground conditions.

I’ve decided to take Paul Nicholl’s Bravemansgame, simply on the basis that he comes into the race fresh and if does come down to a sprint to the line I think he could edge out a bit more.

Aintree 3:30

A race that looks set up for Fakir D’Oudaries to make it back to back wins. He’s around 6/4 to win and arrives here fresh after avoiding Cheltenham last month with this race being the aim.

He’s 5 wins of 16 over fences and this trip is bang up his street. He doesn’t always jump the best but he’s very much the one they’ve to beat if he turns up on song. At 6/4 I decided to swerve and again look for some each way value.

I pinned it down to the Skelton front runner ALLMANKIND who if getting his own way in front might be hard to pass.

He kept on well when challenged at this track over the same distance back in October when he jumped the last in front and managed to hit the line with just about enough left in the tank.

He won that day whilst giving weight to the rest of the field. He beat the likes of Nutswell, midnight shadow and itchy feet who are all decent types in their own right.

He looks a nice each way angle into the race and as previously mentioned if getting his own way in-front may be hard to pass.

Good luck and congratulations all Thursday's winners!

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