This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
The weather for Sunday is a bit all over the place, it's forecast rain in some areas, and none in others. Make sure you always check the forecast before backing your horses, you don't want horse who won't handle the ground.
I wouldn't put anyone off from not backing SKITTLEBOMBZ in this race, as he is an unraced 2yo, but I think he could be quite useful.
There's always a risk attached to backing unraced 2yo's as they can often be green, slow out the gates, or just not that good as you first thought they would be. However, the fact that Tom Dascombe sends his only runner of the day up to Ayr is quite significant. Over the years, Tom has had 2 winners from 8 runners when sending 2yo's to Ayr for either Maiden or Novice races, so he doesn't send them this far if he doesn't think they have a hope. Tom has a +23.25 profit to level stakes at Ayr, with a 22% SR with all of his runners in the last five years.
Another interesting fact about this horse is that it is owned by John & Jess Dance, who also own Sam Maximus who is also trained by Tom Dascombe. Tom was full of praise for that horse before he ran on his debut, and an hour after that statement he won. I think it's interesting that Tom gave Skittlebombz a positive mention in his stable tour which he gave to At The Races at the start of May.
Obviously, you can't be too confident, but I feel like they could've sent him to a more local track like Chester or Haydock if they really wanted to, so it's quite significant they've taken him on a trip for his first run.
Limerick is expecting a lot of rain over the course of Saturday and Sunday, so I expect the ground to be on the soft side, even though it is currently described as Good To Firm (Midday Saturday). With that being said, I think BREAGAGH could run a big race, as he seems to handle cut in the ground, a lot better than the others in the race.
When you take the 7lb claim into consideration from Annalise Cullen, it means that Breagagh will be running off 8st 3lbs, which is bottom weight. If the rain does arrive, which it should, then the low weight could prove to be vital, as carrying heavy weights in stamina sapping ground isn't ideal. Annalise is still an inexperienced rider, and I can't comment too much about her as I've not seen her ride before, however, she has 4 wins from 33 rides, and she returns a profit of +11.13 to level stakes.
Limerick is notoriously known to benefit front runners, so Breagagh should hopefully get to the front and benefit from this. There isn't a strong pace, so if he breaks on terms, and the young jockey has been told to get the lead, then she should be able to do so.
Though he is still a maiden, he has ran many fine races in defeat, especially in the last thre runs where he has finished 2nd, 3rd and 3rd.
Market Rasen 2:25
Olly Murphy is one of the top trainers around Market Rasen, operating at a 20% SR from 191 runners, which generally means his horses are well found in the market. Despite this, I will still be following FIVETOTWELVE as I think she will have a nice chance in the second race.
Even though Olly Murphy's record at this track is very good, if you whittle it down to Novice Hurdle races, when Aidan Coleman was riding, it is scarily impressive. With those conditions, he has won 6 and had a further 2 places from 12 runners, which is a 50% SR. This race that Fivetotwelve competes in isn't that strong, and you'd think that She's All In Gold will go off favourite as she is currently 1 from 1 over obstacles, so hopefully that will drive the price out for our selection. Aidan Coleman goes to Market Rasen for the one ride, so that could be a good indicator of the chances he thinks this 7yo Mare has.