IT'S another FA Cup weekend and as punters we know what to expect these days.
Firstly, all the big guns will rest players which means those with the biggest pockets will survive longest.
So even if the likes of Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea field weakened sides they'll still beat most teams in their path.
Secondly, there will be shocks so try to avoid them. This weekend sides in danger include Everton at Millwall, Wolves at Shrewsbury and West Ham at Wimbledon.
To be honest apart from last night's Arsenal v Man United tie and possibly Palace v Spurs it's a really dull set of fixtures.
I'm interested in Man City at home to Burnley and Pep Guardiola could go fairly strong as he eyes a potential domestic treble having reached the EFL Cup Final.
This is City's fourth games in seven days in four different competitions if you count the EFL Trophy – and an indication of why they need a huge squad.
Burnley are the visitors to the Etihad and they must be a “Burnlay” as their full focus is on Premier League survival.
City are no bigger than 1-9 to win but with the expectation they'll field a strong side I'm on City -2 at 4-5 with Paddy Power.
The last three meetings at the Etihad have been 12-1 on aggregate to City including a 5-0 earlier this season.
In their last four games in all competitions City have netted 23 with just none conceded.
If Sergio Aguero starts back him at 10-3 with boylesports to score first – as he did at Burton on Wednesday.
Newcastle always play reserves in the Cup so if Watford want this one it's there for them. You might want to check teams but Watford look good at 7-5 with McBookie.
Wolves and West Ham are both priced up at about 1-2 but I wouldn't back them until line-ups are revealed.
Everton will be tested at The Den and Millwall draw no bet is 14-5 at betfair.
Elsewhere I like Derby at Accrington considering they fielded a strong side that knocked out Southampton in a replay. County are 17-20 at McBookie.
If FA Cup's not your thing there are plenty of lower-league games to look at.
In the Championship Aston Villa should pick up a much-needed first win in six when basement boys Ipswich visit. Villa are 1-2 at McBookie.
There should be goals when Norwich entertain Sheffield United. The Canaries have netted exactly three in their last three homes games – winning just one – and as the Blades should counter too so both to score at 4-6 with bet365.
I can also see goals at Blackburn v Hull and Stoke v Preston while Leeds should get back on track by winning at Rotherham but are no bigger than 4-7 with bet365.
In League One Derek Adams' Plymouth are making their usual surge in the second half of the season and are going for five wins in a row at Wycombe. They are 13-5 at Marathonbet.
League two game of the day is Bury v Lincoln – second v first – and while I fancy the home it's a little short at 11-10. Should be goals though and both to score is 4-6 at sportingbet.
Recommended Bets
- Man City -2 (4-5, Paddy Power)
- Watford (7-5, betfair)
- Millwall draw no bet (14-5, betfair)
- Derby (17-20, McBookie)
- Norwich (11-8, Ladbrokes)
- Plymouth (13-5, Marathonbet)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
