The first round of the EFL Cup throws up plenty of mismatches on paper, but cup football has a habit of producing upsets. This week’s fixtures include three ties where the gulf in quality, form, and squad depth could be telling. Bolton Wanderers will fancy their chances of progressing at home to a depleted Sheffield Wednesday side missing key players, though they did find the net in a 2-1 defeat away to Leicester City.
Grimsby Town have made a lively start in League Two and now welcome a Shrewsbury Town team struggling badly at both ends of the pitch. Southampton, under Will Still, head to Northampton Town with an abundance of attacking options and the possession game to control proceedings, even if they rotate.
Each of these games offers a different betting angle, whether it’s Bolton’s strength at the Toughsheet Community Stadium, Grimsby’s high chance creation against a blunt Shrewsbury attack, or Southampton’s likely dominance in possession against a Northampton side who have carried little attacking threat so far. With early-season form lines and squad situations becoming clearer, these three fixtures could provide some of the strongest betting opportunities in the round.
Grimsby Town vs Shrewsbury Town
Grimsby Town look well placed to progress when they host Shrewsbury Town in Tuesday night’s EFL Cup tie. The Mariners have made a strong start to the League Two season, scoring six goals in their opening two matches. They opened with a 3-0 win over Crawley Town at Blundell Park, producing 2.19 xG from 20 shots and 19 efforts inside the box while conceding just 0.30 xG. They followed that with a 3-3 draw at Harrogate Town, generating 1.05 xG, conceding 1.21 xG, creating three big chances, and showing character to fight back from 3-1 down, with Jaze Kabia scoring his second goal in as many games.
Shrewsbury, by contrast, have endured a miserable start. They drew 0-0 at home to Bromley on the opening day, despite the visitors having just 42% possession. Bromley generated 0.68 xG from 17 shots, with two on target and 10 inside the box. Shrewsbury managed only 0.25 xG from six shots, with two on target, four inside the box, 0.17 xGOT and just 0.14 xG from open play. A week later, they were thrashed 4-0 at Tranmere Rovers, producing only 0.43 xG and again offering no real attacking threat. Across their two games, they have yet to score, created zero big chances, and conceded four goals.
With 3.24 xG created and just 1.51 xG conceded over two matches, Grimsby’s balance looks good. Shrewsbury’s lack of cutting edge and defensive vulnerability make this a difficult assignment, and if the hosts strike first, the data suggests the visitors will struggle to respond.
- Best Bet: Grimsby win at 21/20 with Coral
Bolton Wanderers vs Sheffield Wednesday
Bolton Wanderers look well placed to progress in the EFL Cup when they host Sheffield Wednesday on Tuesday night. Ian Evatt’s side bounced back from their opening-day defeat at Stockport County with a confident 2-0 home win over Plymouth Argyle. That display was dominant in all the right areas — Bolton generated 1.65 xG from 13 shots, with nine coming inside the penalty area, while restricting Plymouth to just 0.23 xG and no shots on target. It was a controlled performance that highlighted their strength at the Toughsheet Community Stadium, where they can tailor their approach to the opponent and still carry a threat.
Sheffield Wednesday arrive in far more difficult circumstances. They have one of the smallest squads in the Championship and are already missing key players. Captain Barry Bannan is suspended after his red card against Leicester City, and Nathaniel Chalobah is unlikely to feature after limping off in the first half. Several other senior players remain sidelined. This leaves Henrik Pedersen either fielding an inexperienced side or asking the same group to go again just days after a physically draining match at the King Power Stadium.
Wednesday’s work rate at Leicester was commendable, but they conceded 28 shots, 2.42 xG, and relied on 11 saves from their goalkeeper to stay in the game. They created no big chances and despite scoring early they looked out on their feet towards the end of the game.
Given Bolton’s greater depth, home advantage, and proven ability to create high-quality chances, backing them to win looks a strong bet. Wednesday’s lack of cutting edge and the likelihood of fatigue make the home win a strong bet.
- Best Bet: Bolton win & under 4.5 goals at 1/1 with Betway
Northampton Town vs Southampton
Southampton should have too much quality for Northampton Town in Tuesday’s EFL Cup tie, even with rotation. Will Still’s side dominated Wrexham at the weekend, producing 4.14 xG from 27 shots and creating four big chances, eventually winning 2-1 with two late goals. The bench that day underlined their depth, with Ben Brereton Díaz, Cameron Archer, Ross Stewart and Ryan Manning all available and players who are likely to start or feature heavily at Sixfields Stadium.
Northampton Town’s early season form has been underwhelming. A 3-1 defeat at Wigan Athletic saw them concede four big chances and 2.39 xG, and they followed that with a goalless draw at home to newly promoted Bradford City, managing just 0.13 xG from four shots. Defensively, they have given up 3.55 xG across two games, and their attack has carried little threat.
Given the gulf in quality, Southampton to win at 11/20 is unsurprisingly short, but the Southampton win and under 4.5 goals at 10/11 offers better value. Northampton Town are likely to sit deep and frustrate, which could slow the scoring. If Southampton get two or three goals ahead, Will Still may rotate heavily or introduce youth players for experience, reducing the chances of a late goal rush.
Southampton’s control in possession and ability to create chances from wide areas should be enough to break Northampton Town down, but a high-scoring rout is less likely given the expected game state. A professional, controlled away win feels the most probable outcome, and pairing it with a goal cap makes the price more appealing.
Best Bet: Southampton to & under 4.5 goals at 10/11 with William Hill
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