After a profitable start to September, we kept the momentum going last weekend by landing three from three, helped by Cardiff’s dramatic 97th-minute equaliser at Stockport. Confidence is high heading into this round, and once again the data points strongly towards goals across several fixtures.
Leicester’s clash with Coventry headlines the Championship card, with both sides carrying attacking threats that make a high-scoring contest likely. Ipswich’s trip to Blackburn looks another where the numbers are heavily in their favour, with Kieran McKenna’s side now boasting a front line capable of punishing one of the weakest home defences in the division.
Dropping down to League Two, Salford against Swindon has the profile of a shootout, with neither side showing much ability to keep clean sheets and both carrying plenty of attacking intent. Between them, these three matches combine reliable attacking data with shaky defensive records, giving us several well-priced angles that stand out across the weekend’s card.
Leicester City vs Coventry City
Leicester’s meeting with Coventry looks primed for goals, with both teams to score and over 2.5 both standing out. Leicester have collected two home wins already, a 2-1 against Sheffield Wednesday and a 2-0 over Birmingham, showing both their attacking edge and ability to grind out clean sheets. But across the season their defensive metrics suggest vulnerability, conceding 1.3 xGA per game on average, while allowing 15 shots in the box at home.
Coventry’s away data strengthens the case for goals. They rank 4th for away xPTS (4.8) and have produced 2.60 xG per game on the road while conceding 1.00. They are generating 7.5 shots on target per away match and lead the division for shots in the box away (10 per game). That attacking volume, alongside their +5 SiB differential away from home, makes them more than capable of breaching Leicester’s defence.
Leicester’s own attacking numbers at home are also strong: they average 1.45 xG, 7.5 shots on target and 9.0 shots in the box. With both sides creating consistently high-quality chances, a game with multiple goals looks more than likely.
Both teams to score has landed in three of Leicester’s five league games so far, and four of Coventry’s last five outings. Combining that with the metrics makes over 2.5 a natural addition.
Coventry 2+ goals is also a strong side bet: they have scored at least twice in three of their last four and average more than 2.5 xG away. Against a Leicester side who will attack but leave space, that angle carries value at 6/5
- Best Bet: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Bet365
Blackburn Rovers vs Ipswich Town
Ipswich’s early away data does not reflect their current attacking strength. They have averaged only 0.75 xG and 1.0 shot on target per game on the road, but that was before Kieran McKenna had a settled side. Since the transfer window closed, the squad looks far more balanced, and the frontline is transformed with Jaden Philogene, George Hirst, and Chuba Akpom now in rhythm.
Philogene’s hat-trick against Sheffield United highlighted his sharpness, while Hirst and Akpom provide constant movement and different types of runs to stretch defences. Behind them, Jens Cajuste anchors midfield, and the bench options with Marcelino Nunez, Sammie Szmodics, Jack Clarke, and Ivan Azon give Ipswich genuine depth to maintain pressure across ninety minutes.
Blackburn’s defence at Ewood Park has been among the weakest in the Championship. They sit in the bottom three for home xPTS, xG ratio, and shots on target ratio, underlining consistent structural problems. They average just 1.22 home xPTS, the lowest return in the division, while allowing 2.16 xGA per home game, 8.3 shots inside the box conceded, and 3.67 shots on target faced. On top of that, only three sides have conceded more big chances at home, showing how often their back line is carved open.
Ipswich, meanwhile, look to have found their attacking rhythm. Against Sheffield United they registered 11 shots on target, a huge step up from their earlier away numbers. With a dynamic front three, balance in midfield, and a bench that offers fresh quality, McKenna’s side are built to exploit fragile defences like Blackburn’s.
All the indicators suggest Ipswich have the tools to score freely on Saturday, and the data firmly supports the bet on Ipswich over 1.5 team goals.
- Best Bet: Ipswich to score over 1.5 goals at 6/5 with 888
Salford vs Swindon Town
Salford against Swindon looks primed for goals and is arguably the standout both teams to score and over 2.5 selection in League Two this weekend. The combined records of these two sides point strongly in that direction, with 16 league matches played between them this season and just two clean sheets recorded in total.
Salford at home are as reliable as it gets for action. Every one of their four home matches has seen both teams score, and three of those produced at least three goals. Their attacking intent is obvious, averaging over 16 shots per game and creating seven big chances at home already. The flip side is a defence that ranks among the worst in the league for xGA, conceding over 1.8 per game.
Swindon’s away record mirrors that openness. They have scored in all four of their away games and rank top three for non-penalty xG, shots in the box ratio and set-piece xG created. However, they are far from watertight, allowing consistent chances against and conceding heavily from dead balls. Their overall both teams to score rate is among the highest in the division.
With both sides combining for 14 matches where both teams to score has landed out of 16, the profile is clear. Salford’s attacking strengths meet Swindon’s defensive vulnerabilities, while Swindon’s forward line is more than capable of exploiting Salford’s leaky back line. This looks a high-scoring game where both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is the obvious angle.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals at 1/1 with Bet365
Further Reading
- Sunderland vs Aston Villa Prediction and Betting Tips
- AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United Prediction and Betting Tips
- Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction and Betting Tips
- West Ham United vs Crystal Palace Prediction and Betting Tips
- Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Prediction and Betting Tips
GambleAware