Our season so far in the EFL column has been very positive, returning 9.27 units and a 24% ROI. With the FA Cup taking centre stage, it’s a Championship-only weekend but there is still plenty of value across the card.
Norwich City’s meeting with Hull City at Carrow Road looks set for goals. Norwich’s defensive problems and Hull’s attacking approach make for a high-event contest. Norwich have lost all five at home and pressure is growing on Liam Manning, while Hull’s 12 league games have produced 40 goals with both teams scoring in eight.
Charlton Athletic also look strong hosts as they take on Swansea City. Charlton’s process at The Valley has been excellent, ranking among the top six for xG ratio at home. Swansea, by contrast, are bottom for xG ratio over the last four and have struggled badly in attack.
Finally, Marcelino Nunez is worth backing for shots alongside goals. The midfielder’s consistent shot volume and Ipswich’s strong attack make this a well-supported double.
Norwich City’s meeting with Hull City at Carrow Road looks set for goals. Norwich’s defensive problems and Hull’s attacking approach make for a high-event contest. Norwich have lost all five at home and pressure is growing on Liam Manning, while Hull’s 12 league games have produced 40 goals with both teams scoring in eight.
Charlton Athletic also look strong hosts as they take on Swansea City. Charlton’s process at The Valley has been excellent, ranking among the top six for xG ratio at home. Swansea, by contrast, are bottom for xG ratio over the last four and have struggled badly in attack.
Finally, Marcelino Nunez is worth backing for shots alongside goals. The midfielder’s consistent shot volume and Ipswich’s strong attack make this a well-supported double.
Norwich City vs Hull City
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looks a strong bet when Norwich host Hull City at Carrow Road on Saturday. All the data points towards an open, high-chance game.
Norwich have endured a dreadful home campaign so far, losing all five league matches at Carrow Road. They have scored only four and conceded nine, failing to score twice and keeping no clean sheets. Their underlying process reflects that record: across the last eight games they have posted 1.84 xGA per match, ranking 23rd in the division, and their xG ratio of 33.9% shows how regularly they are second-best.
Home matches have averaged between 3.3 and 3.6 total xG, a clear sign of how open their fixtures have become.
The Norwich fan base are turning against the owners, manager and players due to their awful start and protests are planned before and during the game which will not help the players. Another defeat could see the end of Norwich manager, Liam Manning.
Hull’s data reinforces the case for goals. Their 12 league games have seen 20 goals for and 20 against, averaging 3.33 per match, with both teams scoring in eight of 12 and over 2.5 landing in 9 of 12. They have managed just two clean sheets all season, one away as they drew 0-0 at Coventry but even then, they conceded 1.43 xG and 18 shots. In their other four away games, they have conceded two or more goals in each.
Defensively, Hull’s recent trend is worrying. Over the last four games, only three sides have conceded more shots in the box, and no team in the league has allowed more big chances. Their last eight matches average 3.62 total xG (1.57 for, 2.05 against), the second highest in the Championship.
Norwich’s defensive issues and Hull’s high-event style make this fixture a strong candidate for goals at both ends. For those bettors who want to play it safer, then over 2.5 goals can be back at 8/11.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 1/1 with Bet365
Charlton Athletic vs Swansea City
Charlton look well positioned to claim another home win this weekend when they host Swansea. The two sides are trending in opposite directions, and the underlying numbers strongly favour the hosts.
Charlton have built real consistency in recent weeks, losing just one of their last eight league games and taking 15 points in that spell. At The Valley, their process has been excellent they sit 6th in the Championship for xG ratio at home, averaging 1.46 xG for and just 0.88 xGA. That balance reflects a side with both attacking variety and defensive control.
They have scored in all but one home match, restricted opponents effectively, and their data over the last eight matches ranks among the division’s top six for both xPTS and xG ratio.
Swansea, on the other hand, look vulnerable. Over their last four games they rank 24th for xG ratio, producing just 0.65 xG per match, the lowest non-penalty xG in the league (0.46) and only 0.25 xG from open play. Their attack has completely dried up as they have created just three big chances in that stretch, while also conceding three. They are also bottom for shots-in-box ratio, underlining how little threat they have carried.
Away from home, the picture is equally poor. Swansea sit 19th for xPTS on the road, averaging 0.92 xG for and 1.25 xGA, and rank 20th for shots-in-box ratio. They have managed only four goals in five away games and continue to look fragile defensively.
Charlton’s home process and compact defensive data suggest they’re equipped to control this game. Frank, structured, and efficient in attack, they should have enough to punish a Swansea side lacking conviction and creativity.
- Best Bet: Charlton to win at 11/10 with Coral
Queens Park Rangers vs Ipswich Town
Marcelino Nunez to have 2+ shots and Ipswich Town to score makes for a strong double, backed by both form and data.
Nunez has shown a clear tendency to shoot regularly this season. Across his nine appearances, he has registered two or more shots in seven, showing impressive consistency in getting efforts away. The only two exceptions came in limited cameos with one a 17-minute spell against Portsmouth when Ipswich were already 2–0 up and he was used deeper, and a 24-minute appearance at Middlesbrough where he still managed one shot.
When starting, Nunez’s involvement rises sharply. He has started three games this season and taken 10 shots, averaging more than three per match. Last weekend’s cameo against West Brom underlined his intent again as he fired three shots and was heavily involved in attacking build-up.
With injuries to Ipswich’s two No.10s, Nunez is expected to start in an advanced midfield role, closer to the forwards, where he naturally drifts into pockets around the box and looks to strike early. His shooting confidence, plus Ipswich’s attacking style, make the double appealing.
Ipswich have scored in nine of their 12 league games and average over 1.4 xG per match whilst Rangers have kept just three clean sheets all season. With Ipswich having the players to consistently create chances Nunez will get his chance. Even when not dominating games, they have enough quality to find a goal, especially against sides that allow space between the lines.
With Ipswich’s strong attacking process and Nunez’s shot reliability, this combination fits logically and statistically.
- Best Bet: Nunez over 1.5 shots and Ipswich to score at 1/1 with Bet365
Further Reading
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