Novak Djokovic vs Alexei Popyrin is our US Open betting tip today because it’s a fascinating matchup that offers plenty of great value. It’s also a clash where one player is heavily favoured over the other.
As you’ll see in our preview, this allows us to find some really nice angles on how to approach this and squeeze out some solid value. Betting straight up on the match winner or score won’t get us far here, so we need to be creative with our Djokovic vs Popyrin prediction and betting tips.
Player form: Both playing well
As you can see in the heading, both are playing well, and it’s true. Djokovic cruised through his first two rounds without too many problems despite not serving all that well.
Popyrin has also been playing very solidly for a very long time. This is his best year ever, and his recent Canadian Open triumph only made him more confident.
How the bookies view it: Djokovic heavily favoured
Djokovic is the huge favourite in this one, with odds of 1/10 to win, which paints a rather clear picture. Popyrin, on the other hand, has juicy odds of 7/1, but they are unlikely to hit.
As good as Popyrin has been lately, he hasn’t been on the 24-time Grand Slam champion’s level.
Recent head-to-head: Djokovic leads 3-0
They have played three matches so far, and Djokovic has won all three. The first one happened in 2019, and it was an easy win for the Serbian in two sets.
The other two happened this year, and Djokovic won both in four sets. Clearly, the matchup has been tighter recently, which coincides with Popyrin playing well.
Anything else catch the eye?
While this matchup is rather close, and will be close, possibly extending beyond four sets, there is a trend to observe here that backs our bet. We’re predicting the opening set not to be close and in both matches this year, that came true.
Both times, a player won it by keeping it under 10 games, and we think it will happen again. Djokovic has been known to start slowly, and Popyrin generally does well at the start of matches, so it’s not unthinkable that we’ll see a surprise outcome in that opening set.
Djokovic vs Popyrin betting tips & predictions
As we laid out above, we’re backing the first set to be under 10.5 games. With everything that’s been seen, some people might think it’s going to be a close or tiebreak set, but we’re backing the opposite.
It’s mostly based on history and what we’ve observed from both players in recent times. There is very good value in backing this play, certainly better than most bets you can find for this match.
- First set under 10.5 games @ 5/4
The match will be played on Friday, August 30th in New York, which is the fifth day of the US Open.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
