JUDGEMENT Night is upon us albeit a week later than planned due to week five being cancelled back in March.
Either Mensur Suljovic and Peter Wright will be relegated and the odds heavily favour Mensur Suljovic. The Gentle plays Mighty Michael van Gerwen with Wright facing off against Daryl Gurney.
ONLY a victory for Suljovic will really give the Austrian a fighting chance although a draw and a Wright defeat would also be enough, but would be heavily relying on Superchin to best the Scot.
If you fancy Wright for the drop, William Hill are quoting 9/1 on the outcome occurring.
Looking at the qualification markets for finals night, Marathonbet have stopped taking bets on MVG making it to the o2 next month. The same firm make Rob Cross 1/6, Gary Anderson 2/5 and Michael Smith 1/2 as the final four.
Barneveld leads the odds against pricing at 6/4 with Whitlock 11/4, Gurney at 4's, Wright at 6's and Suljovic at 50/1. Seeing as Michael Smith has a four point cushion over Whitlock and Barney could hold some better than priced percentage of bullyboy making finals night.
Order of play:
Whitlock Vs Price
- Whitlock – 4/5 Sportingbet
- Price – 16/5 Betfair
- Tie -19/5 Boylesports
- Head to head – players tied 3-3
Gerwyn Price has not had a great Premier League and admitted on social media it’s not been the best of events to have been involved in. Whitlock has relished the recall to the event and is sitting on eight points in this competition.
Whitlock has gone without a win in the last five having got off to an excellent start taking just two points from the last ten possible. Price could end the campaign winless and has nothing to lose from this game having lost all of the last five.
Looking at the prices, Whitlock doesn’t appeal especially as short as 4/6 with the sponsors. Price may appeal more at 16/5 with Betfair and you are still getting 11/10 on the Welshman to win or draw the game.
It will be interesting to see how Price plays this. He fell early at the European Tour event, which doesn’t breed confidence in backing, Nor does backing the Aussie at 4/5 although his form outside the PL has been sound.
Looking at the 180 averages Whitlock has averaged a maximum 0.275 per leg with Price 0.133 per leg. Multiplying both implies the maximum line sits just under five over a dozen legs. Compilers punt the line at 5.5 with Boylesports taking evens on fewer than six in the game may be the way to play this.
Barney Vs Smith
- van Barneveld – 7/5 Betfair
- Smith – 6/4 Unibet
- Tie – 100/30 Bet365
- Head to head – Barney leads 7-5
Barney is 6/4 to qualify for finals night next month and the price will shorten if he defeats Smith. The betting prices indicates compilers are not sure who will win this although Barney has the slightly thinner price on the basis he is throwing first.
Raymond’s three game unbeaten run came to an end against MVG last week 7-2 whereas Michael Smith was back to winning ways comfortably over Gerwyn Price.
The pair are at odds for finals night with Smith 1/2 to make the top four. Already mentioned Barney at 6/4 implies either thrower will fight it out for the o2.
On stats both players have fairly similar averages with Smith on the high 92 with Barney a low-mid 94. We have not seen as many maximums as some hoped from Smith netting 18 in 80 legs. Barney has hit three more in 86 legs.
With the slightly higher maximum average Barney is still 17/10 to take more maximums over Bullyboy who occupies around evens. The tie at 9/2 is possibly worth a go. Barney has hit more maximums than Smith over the last two weeks so potentially backing Barney on the draw no bet market for maximums at 23/20 with Marathonbet.
The bet we are considering is Bwin and Sportingbet are offering 17/20 on Smith’s 3 dart average line at 97.5. Bullyboy has passed this line just once and that was back in week two.
Anderson Vs Cross
- Anderson – 27/20 Unibet
- Cross – 17/10 Boylesports
- Tie – 100/30 Betway
- Head to head – Anderson leads 5-0
Can Anderson make this 6/6? The odds imply the game could go to a tie seeing some odds compilers offering less than 3/1 on the draw which is rare. Some are going as big as 100/30 but this is still under the usual 7/2 we often see.
Rob Cross comes into the game after a tight affair with Daryl Gurney last week having bees edged out 7-5 in a game which saw Gurney fall over the line with a timely maximum in the deciding leg.
Anderson has some ground to make up sitting in fourth place on nine points and can overtake Cross with a sixth successive victory. Anderson will look to go six games in the PL without defeat having won the last two. Both players have a similar scoring average and wouldn’t mind betting this has the best averages of the night
The race to three leg market is interesting seeing as Anderson has won this market on all bar one occasion (which was against the throw to Peter Wright) and is no bigger than 8/11 with Sun bets and 7/10 with Marathonbet. With Gary’s 100% record on throw first this is surely a market worth considering.
Suljovic Vs Gerwen
This is really a must win for Mensur although a draw could be enough. Even a win may not see the Austrian through if Peter Wright wins his game that follows.
It will be interesting how Mensur plays and might not go out without a fight as he is given an even money 3.5 leg start so MVG would have to win 7-3 or better at a shade of odds on.
MVG has won all of the last six so may be taken on in scores of accumulators on the night.
It would be good to see Mensur get through this although I feel he has left it too late to rescue this as MVG is back in the zone with back to back European Tour titles.
Gurney Vs Wright
- Gurney – 2/1 Betfair
- Wright – 6/5 Unibet
- Tie – 7/2 Betway
- Head to head – Wright leads 11-7
The head to head may favour Wright although Gurney has won all of the last four, three of which were on the TV stage.
Peter Wright will know what he needs to do from the result of the previous game on the oche. Wright could well be safe but must take action on this game kick starting phase two of qualifying for finals night next month.
Snakebite has made back to back European Tour finals having lost both to MVG.
Gurney despite his superior maximum hitting is 10/11 with Betfair to win this market. Wright did hit six last week and zero the week before. Gurney in the same period hit fourteen so the slight shade of odds on appeals.
With Wright continually adjusting his set up he cannot be backed with any confidence on this market.
Recommendations
- M Smith – U97.50 average 17/20 Bwin/Sportingbet 2.5 pts
- Gurney – most 180’s vs Wright 10/11 Betfair 2pts
My mates are big darts fans and are all over Gurnwy to win the 180’s against Wright at 4/5
Gurney is 5/6 for 4 or more 180’s