In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Another week, another big profit! This time, our success came courtesy of Dean Huijsen heading in a goal for Bournemouth against Manchester United. This marks our second major win in the last three weeks, following Nottingham Forest's Nikola Milenkovic header on target at Old Trafford at odds of 9.5. Not only did Huijsen land the winner at 8.5 odds, but we also cashed in at 2.1 with him to have a shot.
At one point, it even felt like the massive 31/1 bet was within reach with a Virgil van Dijk to have a headed shot. However, while Liverpool cruised to a comfortable win, they didn’t create many threats from set pieces.
For the Boxing Day matches, we’re sticking to the same winning format—identifying value in shots from set-piece opportunities. Let’s keep the momentum going!
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham
Nottingham Forest host Tottenham Hotspur in a clash where the visitors remain without their first-choice centre-back pairing of Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven. To make matters worse, Ben Davies, who could have deputised at centre-back, is also unavailable. This leaves Spurs relying on the inexperienced duo of Archie Gray and Radu Dragusin in the heart of defence—a potential vulnerability that Forest will be eager to exploit.
Forest are particularly strong from set pieces, with excellent delivery from Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliot Anderson. We saw them exploit Manchester United’s frailties at Old Trafford earlier this month, and they’ll fancy their chances of doing the same against a depleted Spurs backline.
Milenkovic has been a standout threat in the air, registering 17 shots this season and managing at least one shot in each of his last nine matches. Only five players in the Premier League have had more headed attempts than him, making him a key player to watch in this fixture.
Spurs are unlikely to change their attacking style, which could leave them exposed to set-piece opportunities. Forest average nearly six corners per home match, while Tottenham concede 5.25 corners per game on the road—suggesting plenty of opportunities for Forest to capitalise on dead-ball situations.
Forest come into this match in excellent form, having won their last three Premier League games and four of their last five at home. With consistent delivery from set pieces, Spurs could find themselves struggling defensively once again. Backing Milenkovic for a shot or a header on target looks like a solid play in this matchup.
- Best Bet: Nikola Milenkovic 1+ header on target at 6.0 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Nikola Milenkovic to score at 13.0 with Skybet
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
Bournemouth are in excellent form, winning four of their last five matches. At home this season, they’ve been tough to beat, losing only twice—against Brighton and Chelsea—while securing impressive victories over Manchester City and Arsenal. Crystal Palace, despite a heavy 5-1 defeat to Arsenal last time out, have also turned their season around, with just one defeat in their last eight Premier League matches. Palace will travel to Bournemouth with confidence, believing they can get a result.
Bournemouth’s attacking style sees them play on the front foot, but it often leaves them exposed defensively, allowing opponents to create chances. Palace are likely to sit deep and play on the counter, utilizing the pace of Ismaila Sarr and Eberechi Eze. Palace have averaged 5.25 shots on target across their eight away games this season, and if they do get chances, Sarr is the most likely to capitalise.
He has had three shots on target in each of his last two Premier League games, including in the 5-1 loss to Arsenal. Overall, Sarr has registered 17 shots on target in 17 games this season, with 16 of those coming in just 10 starts.
Given Palace’s strategy to counter in transitions and Sarr’s pace, he could cause significant problems for Bournemouth’s defence. Backing him to have one or two shots on target looks like a smart play in this matchup.
- Best Bet: Ismaila Sarr to have 1+ shot on target at 1.83 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Ismaila Sarr to have 2+ shot on target at 4.5 with Skybet
Wolves vs Man Utd
This is a matchup between two teams that struggle to defend against set pieces. Wolves have conceded more goals from dead-ball situations than any other Premier League side, and although they have recently changed managers, it may be too soon to expect significant defensive improvements.
Only Southampton and Leicester have allowed more shots from set pieces than Wolves, highlighting their vulnerability. While Wolves have conceded 14 goals from set pieces against an xGA of 5.85—suggesting some bad luck—they undeniably struggle in this area. Manchester United, meanwhile, have the third-highest xGA from set pieces in the league, making this a contest likely to be influenced by who can better manage dead-ball situations.
Wolves’ recent win over Leicester shouldn’t carry much weight, as Leicester’s poor form under Van Nistelrooy has been well-documented. However, Wolves do have quality in their ranks, particularly under their new manager, and will aim to build on that result. Both sides will be desperate for a win here, and their inability to defend set pieces effectively creates opportunities for players to shine in the air.
Three players stand out as potential threats from headers in this game. For Wolves, Johan Strand Larsen is the primary target. He’s registered 26 attempts on goal this season, with nine of them being headers—more than any other Wolves player. He is the most likely to capitalise on set-piece opportunities for the home side.
For Manchester United, their two towering centre-backs, Harry Maguire and Matthijs de Ligt, could pose problems for Wolves' backline. De Ligt has had eight attempts on goal this season, five of them with his head, while Maguire has managed just one attempt—a header—but remains a consistent aerial threat. United’s potential rotation at the back, with up to five players competing for three centre-back spots, makes it wise to wait for team news before finalising any bets.
This game could be decided by which team can better defend set pieces, making backing these aerial threats for shots or goals an intriguing option.
- Best Bet: Johan Strand Larsen 1+ headed shot on target at 4.0 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Harry Maguire 1+ headed shot on target at 6.0 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Matthijs de Ligt 1+ headed shot on target at 5.5 with Skybet
Combining Nikola Milenkovic and Johan Strand Larsen to have a header on target will give you odds of 24.0 with Skybet.
