This weekend’s fixture list offers a mix of intriguing clashes across the National League, with opportunities for value in the betting markets.
Eastleigh host Maidenhead in a match that promises goals, given both sides' defensive vulnerabilities and recent trends. Forest Green Rovers, one of the most consistent teams in the league, welcome struggling Aldershot in what looks to be a lopsided contest.
Meanwhile, Rochdale face off against Boston United, a bottom-of-the-table side desperately fighting to salvage their season, but the hosts’ strong home form makes them heavy favourites.
In this article, we’ll analyse these three games in detail, examining form, stats, and trends to uncover the best betting options for the weekend.
Eastleigh vs Maidenhead
Eastleigh come into this fixture with a respectable home record of W4D4-L2, with their matches at the Silverlake Stadium averaging 3.3 goals per game. Remarkably, Eastleigh have scored in all 10 of their home games this season but have managed just one clean sheet—a narrow 1-0 win over Tamworth, who currently sit 16th in the table.
Across the season, Eastleigh have only failed to score in 4 of their 20 matches, averaging 1.35 goals per game. However, defensive frailties are evident, with just six clean sheets all season. In their last nine matches, both teams have scored in seven, highlighting the potential for goals at both ends.
Maidenhead, meanwhile, have struggled this season with a record of W5-D5-L10, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game. Their recent form has been poor, with heavy defeats to promotion-chasing York City (6-2), Gateshead (5-0), and Forest Green Rovers (4-1). However, they have shown some attacking threat on the road, scoring in nine of their 11 away matches at an average of 1.45 goals per game. That said, they have also conceded in nine of those 11 games and have allowed two or more goals in six away fixtures.
Defensively, Maidenhead have struggled all season, conceding the sixth-highest number of shots on target in the division. On the road, they have registered the seventh-most shots on target, showcasing their ability to create chances despite their defensive vulnerabilities. Eastleigh, too, have defensive concerns, conceding an average of 4.0 shots on target per 90 minutes at home—one of the highest rates in the league.
Both teams rank in the bottom half for expected points, and Maidenhead have the fourth-highest xGA in the National League. Eastleigh, despite their defensive struggles, have scored consistently at home, and with Maidenhead finding the net in 81% of their away games, it seems highly likely both teams will get on the scoresheet.
Across Eastleigh’s 10 home games and Maidenhead’s 11 away fixtures, only three matches have seen clean sheets for either side, and both teams have scored in 17 of these 21 games (81%). This would suggest implied odds of 1.23 for both teams to score, yet the market offers a far more attractive price of 1.76. Backing both teams to score looks like excellent value in this matchup.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.76 with Unibet
Forest Green Rovers vs Aldershot
Forest Green Rovers host Aldershot on Saturday afternoon in a game that sees the home side just two points off the top of the table, while Aldershot sit precariously two points above the relegation zone. Over the last 10 matches, Forest Green have been the form team in the division, picking up more points than any other side, with W7-D3-L0, conceding just eight goals in the process.
Forest Green’s overall record of W13-D5-L2 highlights their consistency, with only 14 goals conceded all season. Their two defeats came on the road against Barnet and Oldham, both of whom sit in the top six.
At home, Forest Green are formidable, winning seven of their nine matches and drawing the other two. Five of their seven victories at home have come by a margin of at least two goals, as they average 1.89 goals scored per game while conceding just 0.67.
Aldershot, by contrast, are struggling this season with a record of W4D6-L10, conceding 36 goals at an average of 1.8 per game. They come into this match on the back of three consecutive defeats, shipping goals in 4-3, 2-1, and 3-2 score lines. Their away record is dismal, with just W1-D4-L6.
That lone victory came in their first away game of the season, a narrow 1-0 win at Halifax. Since then, they have failed to win any of their next 10 away matches, losing six and drawing four, while conceding an average of 2.1 goals per game.
Aldershot have conceded two or more goals in seven of their nine away matches since their win at Halifax, including each of their last five. Their only clean sheet in this period was a 0-0 draw against bottom-of-the-table Ebbsfleet.
Given Aldershot’s defensive frailties and Forest Green’s strong home form, the hosts should have little trouble scoring at least two goals and securing another comfortable victory.
- Best Bet: Forest Green to win and over 1.5 goals at 1.73 with Betway.
Rochdale vs Boston United
Rochdale head into Saturday’s fixture sitting sixth in the league standings with a solid record of W11-D3-L7. Their impressive home form has been the cornerstone of their success, losing just two of their 10 home matches while conceding an average of only 0.7 goals per game. Rochdale have found their stride offensively, scoring two or more goals in their last three games, and look well-positioned to mount a strong promotion push as the season progresses.
In stark contrast, their visitors, Boston United, are enduring a miserable campaign. Currently sitting 23rd in the table with just three wins from 22 matches, Boston have managed only 15 points and are five points adrift of 20th place. Their away record this season is poor, with W2-D3-L6, with both victories coming back in August and September.
Since then, Boston have lost five of their last eight away games, scoring just four goals during this stretch. They have failed to score in their last four away matches, with their only clean sheet on the road coming in a 0-0 draw against bottom-of-the-table Ebbsfleet.
Boston’s recent away fixtures have been low-scoring affairs, averaging just 2.25 goals per game over their last eight matches. However, their defensive frailties remain glaring, as only four teams in the league have conceded more goals than Boston this season. Despite ranking 16th for xPTS, their inability to find the net and defensive shortcomings leave them vulnerable.
Given Rochdale’s strong home form and Boston’s struggles, the hosts are expected to have far too much quality for their opponents. Rochdale should comfortably score at least twice and secure a straightforward home victory.
- Best Bet: Rochdale to win and over 1.5 goals at 1.80 with Betfred
Upcoming match previews and betting tips
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