This weekend offers an exciting lineup of fixtures across League Two and League One, with plenty of opportunities for value in the betting markets.
From a battle of contrasting forms between Harrogate and Walsall, to a potentially high-scoring clash between Lincoln and Reading, and a game where goals could flow as Accrington Stanley host Salford City. Each of these matches brings unique dynamics, with form, underlying stats, and recent trends all pointing toward intriguing betting angles.
In this article, we’ll break down the key statistics and narratives surrounding these three games, highlighting the most attractive betting options.
Let’s dive into the action and see where the best opportunities lie for this weekend!
Harrogate vs Walsall
Walsall travel to Harrogate with an impressive record this season: W12-D4-L3 conceding just 19 goals and averaging 1.84 goals per game. They remain unbeaten in their last 10 League Two matches, whilst on the road, it’s a W5-D2-L2, conceding only 0.56 goals per game. They have kept clean sheets in their last three games, including matches against Port Vale (second in the league) and Wimbledon (fourth), showcasing their defensive solidity.
Notably, Wimbledon hold the second-best home record in the division with 20 points from 10 matches.
Despite Walsall’s overall strong form, they rank 14th for xG ratio and expected points over the last four matches. However, Harrogate’s form is far worse, sitting 24th in both xG ratio and xPTS over the same period. Over a longer term (eight games), Harrogate ranks 22nd for xPTS and 23rd for xG ratio, with a meagre average of 0.60 xG generated while conceding 1.18 xG. Harrogate have also allowed the second-most shots inside the box in the last eight matches, behind only Newport.
Harrogate’s season record stands at W6-D3-L8, with just 17 goals scored and an average of 1.50 goals conceded per game. They have lost their last three matches, scoring only once while conceding seven goals. At home, they have struggled with six losses in 10 games and just four wins, scoring only nine goals. This includes a heavy 5-1 defeat to MK Dons.
Interestingly, Harrogate’s record against top sides has shown some resilience, with home wins against Doncaster (fifth) and Chesterfield (sixth). However, these victories were fortunate, as they lost the xG battle to Doncaster 1.44 to 0.60 and narrowly to Chesterfield 0.56 to 0.43. Overall, Harrogate rank 23rd for xPTS and 24th for xG ratio at home this season.
Given the low-scoring nature of Harrogate’s home matches (averaging 2.50 goals) and Walsall’s away matches (averaging 2.11 goals), the game is likely to be tight. Backing Walsall to win at odds of 1.75 is a solid option. However, combining a Walsall win with under 4.5 goals boosts the odds to even money with Betway, offering greater value.
- Best Bet: Walsall to win and under 4.5 goals at 2.0 with Betway
Lincoln vs Reading
Lincoln face Reading this weekend in what promises to be a high-scoring encounter. Lincoln’s home games this season have averaged 2.89 goals, with seven of their nine matches featuring at least three goals and both teams scoring in seven of them. At home, Lincoln have a record of W4-D2-L3, scoring 14 goals and conceding 12. Notable results include a 2-1 win over Stockport, a 3-2 loss to Wycombe Wanderers, and a 3-1 defeat to Birmingham City. They have scored in seven of their nine home matches and conceded in the same number.
Reading, meanwhile, are adapting to the loss of their manager but have maintained a strong record for goals in their away games. Across their 10 away matches this season, games have averaged 3.4 goals, with both teams scoring in nine of those. The only exception was a 3-0 loss at Wrexham, a side with an excellent home record. Over 2.5 goals have landed in seven of Reading’s 10 away matches, and while they have conceded in every away game, they have also scored in nine.
Lincoln rank 19th for xPTS over the last four matches, while Reading are 21st over their last eight games. Lincoln have been defensively solid recently, conceding just 0.75 xG per game, but Reading’s away games have seen them generate 1.01 xG while conceding 1.38 xGA. Reading have struggled defensively, sitting 21st for xPTS on the road, and only two teams have allowed more shots on target away from home.
Given these stats, backing both teams to score at 1.75 is a solid option. However, over 2.5 goals at a slightly higher price of 1.85 offers more value, particularly as Lincoln have scored two or more goals in five of their nine home games this season. This bet also covers the possibility of Lincoln winning comfortably.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 with Bet365
Accrington Stanley vs Salford City
Accrington Stanley host Salford City on Saturday in a match where goals could be on the cards. Stanley have seen both teams score in each of their last six games across all competitions, with these matches averaging four goals and Stanley conceding an average of 2.33 goals per game during this run. At home, their nine matches have produced 24 goals, an average of 2.67 per game. They have conceded in seven of these nine games while scoring in seven as well, with both teams finding the net in six of them.
In their last five league matches, both teams have scored, and Stanley have conceded two or more goals in four of these fixtures. Overall, their league record stands at W4-D7-L8, with an average of 1.79 goals conceded per game and 1.37 goals scored. Despite scoring in 16 of their 19 league matches, they have managed just three clean sheets. Stanley rank 19th for xPTS over the last four matches and 16th over the last eight, with underlying numbers showing just 0.81 xG across their last eight games. However, they have consistently found a way to score despite their struggles.
Salford City, meanwhile, have scored in six of their nine away matches this season. On the road, they have a record of W1-D6-L2, scoring eight goals and conceding 10—an average of 1.11 goals conceded per game. Their recent form has improved, with only two defeats in their last nine matches. Over the last eight games, Salford rank seventh for xPTS and sixth for non-penalty xG ratio, but their away performances leave them ranked 14th for xPTS on the road.
While Stanley’s recent games have averaged four goals, this match may not be as high-scoring due to Salford’s defensive stability. However, Stanley are likely to find the net given their consistent scoring form, but they are equally unlikely to keep a clean sheet. This makes backing both teams to score an appealing option for this fixture.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.81 with Vbets
Upcoming match previews and betting tips
- Fri 19:30 Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig
- Sat 12:30 Aston Villa vs Manchester City
- Sat 15:00 Aberdeen vs Hibernian
- Sat 15:00 West Ham vs Brighton
- Sat 15:00 Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
- Sat 15:00 Rangers vs Dundee
- Sat 15:00 Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
- Sat 20:00 Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid
- Mark Walker’s Scottish Football Tips: Livi Lions can roar
- Football Bet of the Day: More goals in Milan’s road trip to Verona on Friday night
