This weekend’s National League action brings a trio of intriguing fixtures with plenty of betting angles to explore.
Tamworth vs York City pits a solid mid-table side against the league leaders, with both teams showing trends that suggest goals could be on the cards.
Meanwhile, Barnet vs Ebbsfleet sees one of the division’s most dominant home sides host a struggling opponent with defensive frailties, providing an opportunity for a comfortable home win. Lastly, Gateshead vs Woking promises a clash of contrasting styles, with Gateshead’s attacking strength at home meeting Woking’s defensive caution on the road.
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Tamworth vs York City
Tamworth host York City on Saturday evening, and this matchup looks like a strong contender for both teams to score. Tamworth currently sit 16th in the league with a record of W7-D4-L8, scoring 22 goals while conceding 33.
Their games average 2.89 goals per match, and their home form has been solid, winning five of their 10 home matches and losing just twice. At home, Tamworth’s matches average 2.8 goals, with the team scoring in eight of their 10 games and conceding in 9. They have the eighth-best home record in the division, picking up 18 points from their 10 matches, including a 2-1 win over Gateshead, who currently sit fourth.
York City, on the other hand, are a curious side. They top the table on goal difference ahead of Barnet, with 44 points from 21 matches and a record of W13-D5-L3.
They have scored a league-high 43 goals, highlighting their attacking prowess. While York boast the best home record in the league, their away form is less impressive. They rank sixth on the road with W4-D4-L2, scoring 13 goals and conceding 10. York have lost their last two away games without scoring, falling to Altrincham and Forest Green, and have now conceded in six of their 10 away matches.
York’s defensive vulnerability on the road is a notable trend, as they have conceded an average of 1 goal per match (0.99 xGA). In recent away games, York allowed seven shots on target to Altrincham (conceding twice), two shots on target to Forest Green (conceding twice), seven to Halifax (conceding once), four to Woking (conceding once), and five to Solihull Moors (with a clean sheet).
For a side aiming for promotion, this is a surprisingly high number of shots on target conceded. In fact, York are conceding 3.7 shots on target per away match, the highest of any top-six side apart from Gateshead.
Tamworth, meanwhile, are averaging 4.6 shots on target per home game—second only to Gateshead in the league for home shots on goal. Given Tamworth’s solid home form, where they have scored in all but two of their 10 league games, backing them to find the net against a leaky York defence looks like excellent value.
The odds of 1.75 for Tamworth to score in this match are well worth considering, even if York ultimately win the fixture.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.75
Barnet vs Ebbsfleet
Barnet’s home record this season is outstanding with W9-D1-L0, while conceding just five goals. They average 2.4 goals scored per home match and have scored at least two goals in eight of their 10 home fixtures. Their only slip-up came in a draw against Oldham, who currently sit fifth in the table, just seven points behind Barnet. Barnet look like a strong contender for promotion to the Football League.
In stark contrast, Ebbsfleet have had a dismal season, with a record of W1-D6-L13, scoring just 14 goals while conceding 41—an average of 2.05 goals conceded per game. On the road, this figure rises to 2.7 goals per game. Despite searching for value in this match, the odds for a straightforward Barnet win are understandably extremely low. However, Ebbsfleet’s first-half struggles present an interesting angle.
Ebbsfleet have been trailing at half-time in seven of their 10 away matches this season. The only exceptions came against lower-ranked sides: Braintree (fourth from bottom), AFC Fylde (fifth from bottom), and Tamworth (16th). In all other away games, they were behind at halftime. They have only managed to score one first-half goal on the road this season and just two first-half goals overall in 20 league matches.
Barnet’s first-half record at home is impressive. They have scored in six of their 10 home matches, netting 10 first-half goals while conceding just three. Against lower-ranked opposition, Barnet have been particularly dominant, leading 3-0 at half-time against Tamworth and 2-0 against Braintree. Although they were 1-0 down at half-time to Boston, they came back to win 3-1 by full-time. Barnet are also third for the most shots on target at home and lead the league for xPTS.
Ebbsfleet, by contrast, sit bottom for xPTS, and no team has conceded more shots on target or goals in away matches. Their defensive vulnerabilities are reflected in their league-high xGA. Meanwhile, Barnet rank second in goals scored this season (behind only York) and lead the league in xG.
With odds heavily favouring a home win (1.18), there’s limited value in backing Barnet outright. However, an Asian handicap bet on Barnet to be leading at half-time (-0.75) is available at 1.75 and offers a strong angle. For those looking for even more value, Barnet to score at least two first-half goals is priced at 2.45 with 888Sport.
While Barnet can occasionally start slowly, Ebbsfleet’s inability to score or defend effectively in the first half makes this a compelling bet.
- Best Bet: Barnet 1st half -0.75AH at 1.75 with Bet365
Gateshead vs Woking
Gateshead host Woking on Saturday, with the home side sitting fourth in the table thanks to a strong record of W11-D5-L5, scoring 37 goals but conceding 27—the highest goals conceded among the top six. At home, Gateshead have been particularly solid, with a record of W7-D1-L2, scoring 18 goals and conceding just eight. Their home form is significantly better than their performances on the road.
Woking, meanwhile, have struggled away from home, with a disappointing record of W1-D3-L6, managing just nine goals while conceding 15. Gateshead’s home record against teams outside the top six is impressive, with W6-D1-L0.
In contrast, Woking’s away record on the road against teams in the top half is poor, with W0-D0-L5. Importantly, all five of these defeats have featured three or fewer goals, with three of them having two goals or less, indicating that Woking tend to adopt a cautious approach in difficult away games.
Gateshead’s home victories against sides outside the top six have also been relatively low-scoring affairs. Excluding their 5-1 win over bottom-placed Ebbsfleet, three of their five other home wins in this category have seen two goals or fewer, with only one game featuring four or more goals.
While Gateshead are expected to be too strong for Woking, this match is unlikely to produce a high number of goals. A bet on Gateshead to win and under 4.5 goals at odds of 1.91 with Sky Bet looks like an attractive option, combining Gateshead’s strength at home with the likelihood of a low-scoring affair.
- Best Bet: Gateshead win and under 4.5 goals at 1.91 with Skybet
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