I've Madeupmymind was well fancied in the market on his hurdling debut, but didn't live up to the hype as his jumping wasn't up to the level of others in the race. Despite not jumping slickly, he ran a decent enough race to suggest there is talent there and will be winning races soon.
Rizzel's tips
Bear Market 11/8 (2pt) – Warwick 12.55
I am not a big fan of Nico De Boinville, I think he is the Frankie Dettori of the jumps world. From the looks of it, most punters like Nico, but I think he just looks a lazy rider and unless it's a big race or the horse carries him through to the business end, he doesn't want to know. So, it's a pain in the backside that he's on my fancy in this race, as I think if Bear Market is ready to fire on his seasonal reappearance then he probably should be winning this based on his bumper form.
This horse was a winner of a bumper race at Aintree when trained by Mel Rowley, but has since moved to Nicky Henderson's yard. Nicky's early season runners looked in need of their first runs, but as the weeks have gone by, it isn't quite the same and horses are returning with wins on their first start of the season. This lad is now 2/2 as a racehorse, one in a PTP and the other in a bumper, where he was fancied in the market on both occasions. He won his PTP over 3m on testing ground at odds of 2/1, winning nicely and in the shape of a horse who has a bit of everything, from speed to stamina. On his Class 3 bumper success, he went off 100/30 joint-favourite and showed that he is versatile when it comes to the ground as he managed to fend off the runner-up by a head on much quicker ground.
It looks like the form of the bumper is very strong as the runner-up has since moved to Stuart Edmunds yard and has won 2/2 over hurdles and the trainer has come out and said that he is the best horse he has ever trained and given he has had a fair few 150 rated horses over the years, that's a great statement and if that's anything to go off, Bear Market should be of similar ability, which should make him difficult to beat if primed for today.
Lucky Lugger 11/2 – Warwick 1.25
In my opinion, if Lucky Lugger isn't the favourite or second favourite come the time the race starts, then that would be a tad ridiculous as I think he arguably has the best form in the race by finishing as runner-up to Ryan's Rocket last time out at Chepstow. If he is second favourite, then I think the top weight, Skycutter, will be the one at a shorter price as he is 0/2 over fences but has finished as runner-up on both occasions to a couple of decent handicappers.
The reason why I prefer Lucky Lugger to Skycutter is that my horse won't be lumbering around 12st 2lbs like the top weight is, but also I think there more room of improvement off Lucky Lugger's handicap mark and based on how well he jumped and travelled into the race at Chepstow, I'd be gobsmacked if he can't win off this mark. If I was to take a stab in the dark, I'd say based on their hurdles form, the remaining horses I've not spoken about bar Damarta, they have a fair bit to prove and I don't think they are particularly well handicapped. Damarta has to be respected for a very in-form yard and he ran well on his chase debut.
