Sadly November didn’t end on a winning note, with Twinjets running no sort of race on Saturday, leaving us with modest profit for the month. Still, that’s three profitable months on the spin. Let’s see what December brings.
| Southwell - 14:15 |
Tramuntana |
14/1 |
I’m starting this week’s trio of Naps with a punt at Southwell, where ahead of the maiden hurdle taking place at 14:15, I like the look of Olly Murphy’s Tramuntana.
Far from a race where there’s bags of form to go on, the five-year-old has arguably shown a little bit more so far than early odds of 14/1 would suggest, while his trainer is no stranger to doing well at Southwell, and in races such as this.
The gelding won on his first start as a National Hunt Flat horse, before running modestly at Market Rasen in his only other start in that sphere, with a couple of the horses to beat him that day going on to perform very well since, one of which was New Lion, who just this weekend won a decent Class 3 novice race at Newbury.
Don’t discount for a trainer who does well at Southwell
Let’s face it, Olly Murphy has a strong record at Southwell, but more on that shortly. First, let’s look at his recent hurdles debut.
Following a 204-day break, the gelding had his first run over hurdles on the final day of October at Stratford, where over a slightly extended two miles, he made some late progress, but was never really involved. He should strip fitter for that effort, while the race has since produced a winner.
Back to the trainer, who certainly does some pleasing work at this venue. For starters, Olly Murphy has fired in the winners of late, operating with a 27% strike rate in the last fortnight.
At Southwell in the last 12 months, Murphy has saddled 32 runners at Southwell, winning with eight of those. That’s a more than respectable strike rate of 25%. During the same time, he has a win/place strike rate of 71%. His horses clearly perform well at the Nottinghamshire venue.
Also in the last year, Murphy has a rather promising record in non-handicap hurdle races, such as this maiden contest, delivering a 29% strike rate, not to mention a whopping 85% win/place strike rate. Much like his horses run well at Southwell, it’s fair to say that his non-handicap hurdlers run well in general. To be honest, that stat alone makes odds of 14/1 look too big.
Ultimately, on a day where not much appeals from a value point of view, I’m more than happy to take a chance on this lad, who is in the right hands for a Southwell race of this nature, so don’t be surprised if, at the very least, he outruns what is probably an overly generous price tag.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 69 Naps) has a running P/L of +£55.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
