In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
While shots on target often come with higher odds, there is sometimes good value in backing defenders simply to register a shot. This week, we’ve identified two centre-backs priced attractively to manage at least one attempt. However, we are still sticking with our usual strategy of focusing on centre-backs to have a headed shot on target against teams that struggle to defend set pieces.
Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich
Nottingham Forest host Ipswich Town this weekend, with the visitors looking to maintain their solid form. After beating Spurs and earning a 1-1 draw against Manchester United, Ipswich will aim to keep their momentum going. However, they concede an average of 17.67 shots per game away from home, the third-highest in the league. This could give Forest, who average 14.83 shots per game at home this season, plenty of chances to test the Ipswich defence.
The match is likely to be tight due to Forest’s low-scoring record at home. They average 2.17 total goals per match at the City Ground, scoring just 1.17 while conceding an average of one per game. Notably, they have conceded in four of their six home matches. Ipswich, meanwhile, have picked up points in seven of their 12 league games and have lost only three of their last ten. They have scored in nine of those 12 matches, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them find the net again on Saturday.
For Forest, defender Murillo has become an increasingly active threat in recent weeks. After failing to register a shot in his first six games, he has taken 10 shots in his last six appearances, with totals of 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 1. Given his recent form, it’s reasonable to expect him to attempt another effort this weekend, particularly from free kicks or set pieces. At 1.90 with Unibet to register a shot, Murillo offers good value.
- Best Bet: Murillo over 0.5 shots at 1.90 with Unibet
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Crystal Palace host Newcastle on Saturday afternoon. Palace’s record this season stands at W1-D5-L6, with just 10 goals scored and 17 conceded. This does not look like a game where we will see many goals. Newcastle have been inconsistent, with W5-D3-L4, scoring and conceding 13 goals. Away from home, their record is mixed, with W2-D2-L2, scoring and conceding in five of their six away matches.
Looking at Newcastle’s last 20 away games, they have lost 11 times, conceded 40 goals and keeping just two clean sheets. They have averaged 2.0 goals conceded per match during that run. For Newcastle, centre-back Fabian Schar has been a reliable contributor this season. In 10 matches, he’s taken 13 shots, registering at least one in nine of those games (90%).
This shot frequency suggests an implied probability of 1.11 in decimal odds, yet he is available at 1.72 with Bet365 to take a shot, implying a probability of just 58%. This discrepancy offers value for backers.
- Best Bet: Fabian Schar to have over 0.5 shots at 1.72 with Unibet
Brighton vs Southampton
Brighton take on Southampton in Friday night’s televised match, and there’s value in backing Southampton to concede headers from set pieces. The Saints have been the worst in the league at defending set pieces, conceding 7.84 xGA from these situations—the highest in the Premier League by some margin. They have allowed 64 shots and seven goals from set pieces, consistently struggling to defend these scenarios.
Brighton, on the other hand, have been effective from set pieces, scoring four goals from 47 shots with an xG of 3.63. While they may be slightly overperforming in terms of goals scored, Southampton’s weakness in this area makes Brighton players appealing for bets.
Danny Welbeck to register a headed shot on target is priced at 2.5 with Sky Bet and looks like a strong option. No Brighton player has attempted more headers this season than him. For those looking at higher-value plays, Brighton’s centre-backs offer intriguing options. Jan Paul van Hecke is available at 5.0 to register a headed shot on target, but the standout price is Igor Julio at 15.0 for the same outcome.
Julio has only played seven matches this season, but last year he managed three attempts on goal. Given Southampton’s continued struggles defending set pieces, this offers good value as an outside pick with Skybet. It’s a punt worth considering for a bit of excitement in Friday night’s game.
- Best Bet: Igor Julio to have a headed shot on target at 15.0 with Skybet
Combining Julio, Schar and Murillo to all have a shot on target will give you odds of 104.0 with Skybet.
