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On Thursday, Silver Samurai certainly didn’t run a bad race having been steadily supported, proving the early odds of 10/1 to be a little generous.
We head back over the jumps on Friday, and it’s off to Uttoxeter, where Tommie Gun catches the eye at an early price of 10/1.
| Uttoxeter - 14:35 |
Tommie Gun |
10/1 |
I’ll start by saying that for my money, Hawaii Du Mestivel, who chases a hat-trick is too short in the early market. This is a tougher assignment, while Honneur D’Ajonc, who won for me last month, also looks short enough at the early prices. I’m not convinced this step back up in trip is a clear positive for him.
Looks ready for this distance over timber
This distance does however look ideal for Tommie Gun who seemed to be enjoying the step up to this trip when making his chase debut at Warwick four weeks ago. OK, he fell at the last on that occasion, but he had made steady headway to begin putting a challenge together, so having had a month to recover from that mishap, I wouldn’t be too surprised if he became a big player back over timber.
Lightly raced and far from fully exposed, Nigel Twiston-Davies runner produced two decent efforts over hurdles in the spring, finishing third at Newbury, before finishing fourth at Chepstow. In the latter of those two races, he kept slightly better company than this, while on both occasions, he did his best work late on, suggesting that this greater test in stamina would suit.
Finn Lambert takes back over in the saddle having done the steering for those two spring-time efforts, taking off a handy 3 lbs.
To be honest, a mark of 110, which effectively becomes 107 with Lambert’s claim, looks very workable indeed. One of the horses he finished a few lengths in front of when finishing fourth over hurdles at Chepstow in April has since gone on to place in a Class 3, achieving a rating of 118.
It’s worth mentioning that Twiston-Davies is a trainer that has been in fine form lately, while his record at Uttoxeter in the last 12 months is far from poor, nor is his record when putting Lambert on board. In the last year, the pair have a win/place strike rate of 36%.
All in all, there are more than enough positives for me to conclude that odds of 10/1 are on the generous side. I’ll be far from surprised if he goes off at a slightly shorter price.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 53 Naps) has a running P/L of +£40.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
12.45 wetherby if the fav and second fav come in top 2 the 3rd has to be at least 16/1(at this moment in time) and you ho knows fav may not win so could be worth a few quid on a couple of outside ew
Hope you had one of the top three in that race each-way!
I didn’t bother mate had to go out (don’t use online) but had a feeling. Was in mod all day so nobody saw tip unfortunately