Saturday’s Lucky 15 Tips – Selections from Cheltenham, Doncaster and Newbury

I need to stop mentioning likeable combo's or horses that I don't end up selecting, either my words are creating reality or I just an extremely unlucky person. The Mitchell/Main combo I mentioned walked away with a 4/1 and 66/1 winner…. 

Flash Bardot ran a pleasing race cruising into contention, the button was pressed too late and the winner – going just as well was able to hold on. The only other shining light on a poor day was a NR, hopefully Saturday can see a change in fortunes.

Pepe Le Moko 8/1 four places – 14.20 Cheltenham

The Twiston-Davies yard love Cheltenham, that was well known before their two winners and two 2nds on Friday, they have a really promosing 6-year-old entered in this but is just about short enough to overlook, despite having mixed it at the highest levels now dropped into a C2 handicap.

I am siding with Jane Williams' only runner of the day, David Noonan is on board, a combination who shared a few runners earlier this week, I know they often have a few obscure winners around this time of year so did give them a once over but sadly wasn't able to justify their winner so moved on – hopefully today's runner can make amends for that.

Pepe Le Moko, a lightly raced six-year-old who returns here off an 8 month break with a bit to prove having only been tried at this level once, when last seen finishing 5th of 6 at Kempton.

Before that, the horse had three runs, all last winter, winning twice before a close enough 2nd to Venetia William's Oxygen, seven lengths back in 3rd was Scarface who disappointed yesterday but did run a fair few nice races after, although the distance he was beaten does make me think it was just a pipe opener.

The selection is 8lbs above his win from the a Class 3 in January over 2m4f, a 14 length rout. With the opposition the best he'll have faced today, the trainer will need to have him fully firing which is far from assured but her last winner Jupiter Allen won off a 5 month break, having limited experience over the trip.

There aren't any stamina concerns with this one having looked at the sire, Saint Des Saints who was recently retired has a remarkable set of progeny results. The half brother to the selection is Jesuitique, who was seen winning the Durham National on Sunday just gone over 3m5f. We're near the bottom of the weights and although the ground is decent, hopefully that will aide up against a few that may well be floundering late on.

Supreme Gift 10/1 four places – 14.55 Cheltenham

Gordon Elliot has won the race this is a qualifier for 3 times on the spin in recent years so his entry, on a four timer having travelled from Ireland should have been a straightforward inclusion but it is the Henry Daly runner who I thought could offer a bit of value.

Henry had a couple here run very well yesterday, a winner and a 40/1 2nd, I have been operating without my usual stat site for a few weeks now which is really inconvenient but I do recall Champion Jockey Harry Cobden having a winner for him a couple of weeks ago and a decent showing is expected.

The selection spent most of last year chasing, making four starts, winning at Ascot last November. Reverting to hurdles in February looked to be a wise move, he was 2nd over 3 mile at Ascot in a C3 before winning there dropped back 2f rated 129. When last seen in April he was a 3 length 3rd rated 135, Zain Nights won that day, although Sam Twiston-Davies is on Gowel Road, we are 10lbs better off and twice the price, which without looking at too many others is enough for me.

Abduction 13/2 four places – 17.00 Doncaster

Friday marked the one year anniversary of Abduction's last win, a head in front of a George Boughey horse rated 87 on the artificial surface at Wolverhampton.

Since then, the horse has been seen 11 times, a relatively dreadful set of results makes him hard to select just 7lbs below his last win but the trainer has got some life out of him at Ayr recently with two 2nds now dipping his toes into Class 4 company.

He was close enough both times to suggest now back up 1lb, he is still capable of getting involved despite today's trip perhaps potentially capable of stretching him. It's going to be soft going which he should be fine with, and we can hope that ensures a slightly easier pace to contend with – although we do have plenty of form over 7f.

He is somewhat of an Ayr specialist but on balance, I am confident he is capable of filling a place and without considering anything else, he goes in. He beat Rock Opera recently, a horse who almost franked the form when beating my selection Jimmy Speaking, by all accounts a slightly unfortunate loser.

Rock Hunter 7/1 – 13.25 Newbury

There is so much racing on today, there really shouldn't be much need to take any chances, but unfortunately, I can't devote my entire day to finding them given this role is effectively charity work. I do go above and beyond to try ensure things remain respectable, but that is why results will vary.

Off of that, Rock Hunter is chanced wearing silks I am partial to chancing for the talented Amy Murphy with SDS on board, her most winningest jockey despite his main ride of the day seemingly being for Roger Varian.

This horse is going to love the mud, at least we hope, he is a French import who was winning on heavy at Chantilly on debut just six months ago.

The horse has had 7 runs since, including being tried at Royal Ascot when failing to beat a rival. His form has been nothing short of abysmal in all honesty but last time was some sort of revival as he got ground he likes – which he should have again today.

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