In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Everton vs Fulham
Dwight McNeil has transitioned from playing out wide to a more central role this season, supporting striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin. This shift has seen McNeil register 15 shots, with six on target. He's had three shots on target in four home games and at least one shot on target in five of his last six games.
Last season, McNeil averaged 0.4 shots on target per game, but this season, he's up to 0.75. He is likely taking free kicks around the box and with Fulham conceding an average of 4.25 shots on target per away game, McNeil is poised to have at least one shot on target.
Skybet are offering odds of 1.73 for this bet which implies a 58% chance, but we can back this at Bet365 at 2.0 which suggests this is a 50/50 chance, yet McNeil has registered a shot on target in 62% of his starts this season.
Best Bet: Dwight McNeil to have over 0.5 shots on target at 1/1 (evens).
Manchester City vs Southampton
Opta stats reveal that Southampton have conceded seven goals from set pieces this season, with an xGA of 5.6, both the highest in the league. Southampton are also permitting an average of 5.25 shots per game from set pieces, with only three sides conceding more.
In their recent match against Arsenal, the Saints defended deeply, limiting space behind them—a setup we’re likely to see against City. This strategy could lead to a high corner count for City, giving them opportunities to exploit Southampton’s vulnerability on set pieces.
City have the highest shot count from set pieces with 42 and the highest set piece xG with 3.49.
Interestingly, Manchester City players have attempted just 22 headers in the Premier League this season, with Erling Haaland accounting for 10 of them. Given Southampton’s issues defending set pieces, backing Haaland for a headed shot on target at 1/1 could be a smart choice.
Best Bet: Erling Haaland to have a headed shot on target at 1/1.
Brighton vs Wolves
Wolves are struggling this season, having conceded 23 goals at an average of 2.88 per game. Only five teams have faced more shots, with Wolves allowing 122, of which 44 (36%) have come from set pieces. Only Leicester have permitted more set-piece shots, with Wolves allowing seven goals from an xGA of 3.0, suggesting some bad luck.
Brighton, meanwhile, can struggle at home against teams that sit deep, as seen when Ipswich visited which means that set pieces could become vital. Brighton average 6.50 corners per home game, while Wolves concede 7.75 corners on the road, providing the Seagulls with opportunities.
The Seagulls have also registered 27 headers on goal this season, spread across the team, with Georginio Rutter accounting for six in 374 minutes of play. Betting on Rutter to have one or more headed shots on target at 10/3 with Skybet offers good value.
Best Bet: Georginio Rutter to have a headed shot on target at 10/3.
If you want to combine these three selections into a three-fold, then Skybet are offering 14.97 which at small stakes will make your Saturday afternoon more entertaining.
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