Premier League: Player fouls tips & predictions

The Premier League fouls betting markets allow punters to wager on the total number of transgressions in a match, specific player fouls, players to be fouled, or which team will commit the most fouls.

You can bet on over/under fouls, team fouls, or individual players.

Below you can find our Premier League fouls tips and betting predictions ahead of this weekend's action.

Leicester vs Nottingham Forest 

It’s a Midlands Derby on Friday night between Leicester and Nottingham Forest, and the Foxes' Oliver Skipp is likely to be in the thick of the action. Skipp, sitting in a deep midfield role to protect Leicester’s backline, has demonstrated his physical approach, averaging around two fouls per game when playing over 46 minutes (one, two, two, one fouls in recent starts).

With Nottingham Forest suffering an average of 13.25 fouls per game—third highest in the league—and the likes of Ryan Yates, who is fouled 2.38 times per 90 minutes, Skipp will have his hands full.

The local derby setting intensifies the pressure, with former Forest manager Steve Cooper now in the Leicester dugout, and a lively crowd expected. Both teams will battle for control, leading to potentially high foul counts, as seen in their past three meetings, averaging 26.33 fouls and 12 yellow cards.

Craig Pawson, the referee, averages 24.4 fouls per game and 4.75 cards, adding to the likelihood of a physical encounter. With Forest’s physical play and Skipp’s defensive role, it’s probable he will make at least two fouls in this intense, competitive derby.

• Best Bet: Oliver Skipp to commit 2 + fouls at 2.50 with Skybet

Brentford vs Ipswich

Kalvin Phillips, on loan from Manchester City will be heavily involved in trying to minimise the Brentford attack on Saturday. After back-to-back defeats and a poor showing against Everton, Ipswich will be determined to make a strong response.

Phillips, aiming to regain his best form, is expected to be central to Ipswich’s defensive efforts, particularly with key defenders like Axel Tuanzebe, Ben Johnson, and Jacob Greaves sidelined due to injury. Ipswich’s away defence has struggled, conceding 48 shots in just three games, so a physical, disciplined display will be essential against Brentford.

Phillips has made nine fouls in his last five starts, with two or more fouls in every game except against Aston Villa, where Ipswich's foul count was uncharacteristically low. His midfield partner, Sam Morsy, is one booking away from suspension, leaving Phillips with greater responsibility to handle the physical aspects, including making tactical fouls to disrupt Brentford's attack.

Additionally, Phillips is adept at drawing fouls himself, having won 11 free kicks in his recent starts. Given Ipswich’s defensive setup and Phillips’ aggressive style, he’s primed to make at least two fouls in this intense match.

• Best Bet: Kalvin Phillips to make 2+ fouls at 1.83 with Skybet

Brighton vs Wolves

In Wolves' upcoming clash with Brighton, both Mario Lemina and Rayan Ait-Nouri should have tough afternoons. Wolves are feeling the pressure after a tough string of fixtures, including a late 2-1 loss to Manchester City. With Brighton likely to dominate possession, Wolves will be desperate to win the ball back, especially as they’ve been among the Premier League’s most foul-prone teams this season, second only to West Ham.

Mario Lemina, Wolves' captain and a midfield anchor, has consistently committed fouls, recording two, two, two, one and two in his last five games, totalling 11 fouls this season. Known for his physical style, he’ll likely stay on the pitch for the full 90 minutes to contend with Brighton's midfielders, such as Carlos Baleba, Jack Hinshelwood, and Mats Wieffer.

If Lemina helps defend against Brighton's wingers like Mitoma or Minteh, his chances of picking up fouls further increase.

Rayan Ait-Nouri, expected to play as left-back in a flat back four, will likely be matched up against Joel Veltman. Veltman has drawn 18 fouls in seven starts, attracting two or more fouls in 71% of games, making Ait-Nouri’s foul count likely to rise.

Ait-Nouri has also been consistent with fouls, recording two fouls in six of his last eight games. Given his 75% rate of hitting two fouls per game, he should continue with the trend to commit at least two in this match, especially with Brighton’s wingers likely to draw aggressive defending from him.

• Best Bet: Rayan Ait-Nouri to commit 2+ fouls at 3.1 with Paddy
• Best Bet: Mario Lemina to commit 2+ fouls at 2.3 with Paddy

Who has committed the most fouls and who has suffered the most fouls?

Which match will have the highest booking points total?

Booking points in betting refer to a system where points are assigned based on yellow and red cards shown to players during a match.

Generally, a yellow card is worth 10 points, while a red card is valued at 25 points. In some cases, two yellow cards resulting in a red are counted as 35 points.

Chelsea vs Newcastle

No side in the Premier League has seen more cards than Chelsea this season with their matches average just over seven cards per 90 minutes. It is therefore so surprise to see that the Blues have also collect the most cards with an average of 3.75 per game. They have already had two players suspended this season for accumulating five cards which is impressive given the season is only eight games deep.

Newcastle have the two most fouled players in the Premier League so we should see plenty of fouls and cards in this game. The visitors have collected at least two cards in seven of their eight games and in the game they didn’t Fulham collected six cards on their own.

This game stands out as a fixture that should have plenty of cards. Newcastle struggle away from home which could lead to more cynical fouls, while we know what we are going to get with Chelsea.

The referee for this game is Steve Hooper, who over his last 58 Premier League game he has averages 41.47 booking points. This season he has started with an average of 53.75 dishing out at least 10 booking points to each team in all four of his matches. In his last 29 Premier League games he has given both sides at least a booking each in 25 of these fixtures.

• Best Bet: 60+ match booking points at 1.91 with Skybet

Player to be carded acca – our picks

Reece James to be carded. Chelsea have racked up 30 cards in eight games, averaging 3.75 per match, with Marc Cucurella and Wesley Fofana already serving suspensions for reaching five cards each. This weekend, they face Newcastle, whose wingers Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes will likely put heavy pressure on Chelsea’s fullbacks.

Gordon, notably the second-most fouled player in the Premier League, could lead to more bookings for Chelsea’s defenders. I’d consider backing Chelsea’s right-back to be carded, so Reece James looks a great shout.

• Best Price at 5.0 with Skybet

Rayan Ait-Nouri is a strong candidate for a booking against Brighton. As previously mentioned, he will be up against Joel Veltman, who has drawn 18 fouls in just seven starts. Three of the last five full-backs facing Veltman have received bookings, making Ait-Nouri likely to pick up a card in this encounter.

Best Price at 4.0 with Skybet

Aaron Wan-Bissaka to be carded. Up against his old team which will add more pressure, but he will need to deal with the pace of Marcus Rashford or Alejandro Garnacho. West Ham have now made the most fouls in the Premier League with an average of 14.75 per game. The crowd at West Ham will demand a performance, making this a tricky game for Utd.

• Best Price at 5.5 with Skybet

Combining our three-player selections into a three-fold comes in at a massive 110 with Skybet.

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