Yesterday’s run was far from a disaster with Eligible running on well from the back to take a not-far-away fourth, outrunning what was clearly an overly sizable price-tag. Now for Friday.
| Doncaster - 15:18 |
Magical Spirit |
20/1 |
Today, I’m interested in Magical Spirit, who goes in the 15:18 at Doncaster, a Class 2 handicap over six furlongs.
Now, a quick glance at both the market and the field here and you’d likely dismiss this one as being a bit of a no-hoper. He hasn’t done much in recent runs, while on official ratings, he’s one of the “worst” runners in the field.
However, for my money, this is a horse who, for starters, is quite well handicapped, sitting on a mark that is lower than several of his previous winning marks, while there are many other reasons as to why he might outrun what is a large price-tag.
Has often run well in this very race
Finishing a close-up fourth in this race from 7 lbs higher in the weights back in 2022, he won this race from a mark of 92 back in 2021. Today, he races off a mark of 89.
This is also a race that trainer Kevin Ryan has targeted in recent years, and to good effect, winning two of the last four renewals, winning the race three times overall.
After three no-shows, the gelding delivered a slightly better effort back on soft ground at Ripon last time out, while he’s been dropped another 2 lbs by the handicapper, leaving him only 1 lb higher in the weights than when winning over course and distance (on soft ground) back in April.
It’s probably fair to say that soft ground is his thing, with the gelding winning two of his last four when encountering today’s underfoot conditions.
When it comes to soft ground races over six furlongs at Doncaster, the mount of the in-form Shane Gray is not to be taken lightly, winning each of his last two such races, while he has a career C&D record (on soft ground) of three wins from six runs, finishing second and a close-up fourth also.
From handicap marks of 94 or less, he is unbeaten over course and distance, winning three out of three. That stat alone makes odds of 20/1 look too big.
Listen, the early betting tells us that he’s barely got a squeak and maybe it’ll play out that way, but only one favourite has won this race since 2015, while he simply ticks more boxes than a price of 20/1 suggests. Don’t be surprised if he gets more heavily involved than such odds suggest. I certainly won’t be.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£20.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
In December 2020 we sadly 
