Sunday’s Racing Tips – Casa No Mento looks ready for the fight against the boys

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Champions Day wasn't ideal for Rizzel with both of his selections losing. However, he assured it wasn't a losing day as Aworkinprogress was a 4/1 winner.

The JP McManus horse jumped iffy at the start but warmed to the task nicely and stayed on strongly to deny the runner-up who also found a second wind up the straight.

Cairnzy is out for a Birthday meal. He might be picking a selection or two later on, but for the time being I have decided to get my picks live.

Rizzel's Tips

Frere D'Armes 7/2 – Kempton 3.25

The Dan Skelton trained Frere D'Armes has been a pain for me over the season or so, as he probably should have been a winning tip in the past but his jumping in final stages let him down, and he has also chucked up a stinker when put up. It's a bit of a risk going for him given his past record for me, but he is far too well handicapped to ignore.

This race looks very winnable for the Skelton runner, and I think he is without a doubt the horse who has the most room to manoeuvre from their handicap ratings. The horses towards the top of the weights do not interest me, and if Frere D'Armes was higher in the weights I would have gone for Bourbali who won at this track last year (2 runner race) and could enjoy an uncontested lead. With that said, this race looks like it could be set up perfectly for the strong travelling Frere D'Armes who was clearly given the run out last time at Worcester as a pipe opener for some early-season targets. Harry Skelton was riding at Worcester that day but didn't take the ride on this horse, with 7lb claimer Ms Heidi Palin doing the steering, which definitely suggests they did not care about that run at all. To be honest, he ran a decent enough race, his jumping towards the end of the race was a little poor, but I'd put some of that blame on the jockey as the pair didn't meet the fences on great strides, and she was very patient in the saddle when the horse was in with a chance of winning, so it clearly wasn't about winning that day.

The mark of 123 definitely gives him a big chance in this race. He won his first two chase starts in 2022 off 120 and 128. Since then, he hasn't managed to get his head in front but has run some corkers in very good races off higher marks. The runner-up finished to Boothill off a mark of 133 (effectively 128 as 5lb claimer was on board) was a career-best and the winner has gone on to do very well since. Even the 3rd/5 behind Martator at Ascot was a decent effort off 131.

I do expect this horse to be strongly supported, as he normally is short in the market due to his strong travelling nature and the other reasons I've already stated.

Casa No Mento 2/1 – Kempton 4.00

It could appear to be foolish going against Rubaud at Kempton as he has a very solid record at the track and he is the class horse in the race, but I am a sucker for an improving mare and I think Casa No Mento could be good enough to beat him if she is ready first time out.

Rubaud is clearly a very talented horse, but I don't think he is as good as what some people make him out to be. In and around Listed level he has to be respected, but when upped in class he has hardly landed a glove, other than a Grade 2 win at Wincanton, which was a four runner race and the runner-up was hardly ready for that outing. Rubaud won this race last year, and due to him winning a Grade 2 he is carrying a 6lb penalty for today's race, and I think that is enough to be swayed away. The horse who is the one to focus on against Rubaud has to be Casa No Mento who is a fastly improving mare with plenty of ability and can continue to grow this season.

Nigel Twiston-Davies' 6-year-old mare was 4/5 over hurdles last year, with her only defeat coming to the hands of Queen's Gamble, which is nothing to be worried about. She was only a couple of lengths behind that horse, and given the winner was a high performer in bumpers, with some outstanding form, it was a great effort. Queen's Gamble had form around Dysart Enos who was one of the favourites for the mares' novice hurdle at Cheltenham last year, before she was withdrawn. In that Listed bumper race, you had the likes of Take No Chances and Flying Fortune, who have both franked the form tremendously since.

Casa No Mento put in her best form at the Punchestown Festival earlier this year when she managed to beat the Willie Mullins second string, with the rest of the Listed field being well behind. That was a great effort and she moved through that race like a very good horse, and she did beat some decent Irish horses that day as well. The 7/4 favourite did underperform, but she could only beat what was in front of her and I thought it was a very solid performance. Today's race against the boys poses different questions, but as long as she is ready to fire first time out, which she has been in the past, she is a huge player at the weights.

Killer Kane 9/2 – Kempton 4.35 (WilliamHill)

Even though Killer Kane is the joint eldest horse in the race alongside Almazhar Garde, and he is prone to an improver, I think he has a cracking chance in this race, as the handicapper has given him every opportunity to bounce back to form.

Kempton brings out the best in Killer Kane, with two of his three chase wins coming at this track which makes him a great bet in this race, in my opinion. He started last year off a mark of 132 and now finds himself running off a mark of 122 which is effectively 119 as Freddie Gingell takes off 3lbs, and let's be honest Freddie is a full-time professional jockey and the fact he is still claiming is free. I don't think he is deteriorating as he did put in a career-best RPR last season in February at this course in a Class 3 contest off 131 (126 as Freddie was claiming 5lbs that day), so it shows he is not on the decline despite the fact he has finished 8th/12, 15th/21, 12th/24 and 4th/8 since, but the two runs in the middle were at Cheltenham and Aintree over shorter trips, so that's not a fair representation of his ability. The last race at Kempton wasn't a great performance, but it was a fairly long season for this horse, so that might be why it was a laboured performance after a couple of tough races at the big festivals a month just before.

This race doesn't appear to be that strong in comparison to the horses Killer Kane has raced against in the past. This is a drop in class, and as a result, Killer Kane has to shoulder top weight of 11st 13lbs (claim), but he has proven himself to be effective when carrying similar weights to victory, including 11st 10lbs and 11st 9lbs at Kempton as well as 12st 2lbs when he was a PTP horse.

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