Thursday’s Racing Tips – Donnacha can make a winning chase start at a very wet Carlisle

Jordans was a nice winning selection for Rizzel, tipped up at 9/2 and went off at 11/4. He didn't jump with great fluency during the middle parts of the race and at the last fence, but he managed to get the job done.

Cartwheel topped it off for Rizzel as the 2-year-old runner managed to win nicely under Rhys Clutterbuck, won at the advised price of 7/2, which made it 2/2 on the day for Rizz.

Rizzel's Tips

No More No 6/1 – Wincanton 2.18

The horses towards the top of the weights don't really catch my attention and when you look at their form and whether they are well-handicapped off their current marks, I'm not sold. Of the ones towards the top, my old foe The Bold Thady would probably be the pick as he does have plenty of ability but backing this horse is scary as he has a mind of his own and decides when he wants to fully go through with it, and I've had my fingers burnt on a couple of occasions. No More No is the horse I landed on, his patchy in-and-out profile is a bit iffy, but I do think there is more to come off his handicap mark and in a race which doesn't look too strong, he gets my vote.

Wincanton's ground has somehow dodged all the rain in recent times but they are expecting a few showers which should bring their good, good to firm in places ground to potentially having soft in the description of some kind. That raised a few questions about the ground for No More No who has been kept to summer racing on good ground, which he has relished. I'm hoping Wincanton doesn't get too much rain, but if this horse is definitely against that ground I'm sure they'd pull him out of the race. He has run on heavy and soft on four occasions, which has seen him UR, PU, 5/7 and PU, but they were in novice and maiden races where he was 40/1, 200/1, 300/1 x2, so chances are that they weren't exactly ‘trying'.

Since moving into handicap company he has won two of his four races, and on both occasions where he did get his head in front, he won better than the winning margins. He looks a bit quirky, hence why he wears headgear, but it's not enough to put me off from backing him as he is 2/4 since being in handicaps, with a 2nd/10 the time before last, so he knows how to get the job done. He can race lazily, so if Richard Patrick is niggling him in the middle of the race I think it's just to keep him up to his work and focus on the task at hand. He has gone up 5lbs for his recent win, which is more than fair as he would've won on the bridle if he didn't clatter the last hurdle.

Lawney Hill hasn't sent too many runners out since the start of the season but sends No More No out just two weeks after his win, so they must feel the horse is in a good way and they need to capitalise on it whilst he's firing, as they could've easily put him away for a month or so which has been great in the past with his two wins coming from breaks.

Fantastikas 4/1 – Wincanton 2.53

The market vibes will probably tell the story for Fantastikas as the yard is firing on all cylinders this season, especially in the last fortnight where they've had 10 winners at a strike rate of 34%, so it's probably best to monitor the markets before taking the plunge on this runner.

On his day, Fantastikas is a very well-handicapped horse and it's probably fair to say that he hasn't achieved what many thought he would when he first started chasing. He started off well over fences, being placed in a Grade 2 behind L'Homme Presse and then 7th/24 in the Ultima which was won by Corach Rambler, but since that run at Cheltenham his form has taken a steep decline. Last season he was sparingly raced with just three runs in the winter months, which did see him produce a decent effort at Ludlow when back on soft ground, losing by only 0.75L, recording an RPR of 130 (+7 to his rating at the time).

He hasn't been seen since his flop on heavy ground at Haydock which came a few days after Christmas so his fitness will have to be taken on trust, but as I mentioned before, the yard is pumping out winners all over the place so evidently have their horses in great nick.

Today's field does make it a competitive race as four horses arrive with wins next to their form, but I am still happy enough to take them on with questions against them all. The top weight does his best running at Newton Abbot. Lord Accord, Inflexible and Hold Your Fort would prefer if the rain stayed away and Stratagem returns to normal handicaps after spending last year in hunter chases, as well as the Nicholls yard having a very quiet patch.

Donnacha 10/3 – Carlisle 1.57

Whether Carlisle will be on I guess we'll have to see as they are expecting a serious amount of rain at the track, but if it does go ahead then I thought Donnacha was worth a chance on chase debut in the Class 3 novice chase.

This time last year I stuck up Western Zephyr in this exact race and I thought he put in a good round of jumping but was too free that day. That same horse turns up for redemption and is effectively running off the same mark as last year as Bradley Roberts claimed 5lbs, but now Sean Bowen is on board. He did catch my eye again, but with the amount of rain they are getting, I'm not totally sold on him wanting extremely testing ground so I passed up on the opportunity to back him again.

Donnacha is a horse who relishes bottomless ground and that is going to be a necessity for today's racing at Carlisle if it goes ahead. Obviously, we've never seen him jump a fence, but it's a good indicator that they like what they see at home as they are willing to travel from Somerset to Carlisle for this race. Nigel Hawke does like to send runners out of his south-western base, and he does very well when his horses travel to places like Carlisle. Nigel is 10/36 at this track, with a further 10 being in the top three, which is a 28% SR and has profited +30.38 to £1 level stakes.

The dam hasn't produced a chase winner as of yet, but the pedigree from her side of the family has seen a few decent chasers, so you'd like to think that there is room for improvement now tackling fences for Donnacha, who was probably coming to the end of his ceiling over hurdles at the minimum trip.

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