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With the days getting shorter it's about time I shifted my attention onto the jumps action with racing on the flat becoming more scarce as we head towards winter. I'll most likely be using the All Weather as and when possible but jumps racing is a little more exploitable so the earlier we focus on it the better.
The selections I've come up with seem solid enough on paper but I certainly won't be calling my Nan to make sure she's on any of them. I've decided to chance Natasiya again which may prove costly but she can't run as bad as last time.
Attacanter's Tips
Guy 6/1 – 15.50 Kelso
Over the previous two years, exactly half of Nigel Twiston-Davies' 92 runners at Uttoxeter have at least managed to place. His son is at Uttoxeter today on a good few of his, but most seem to require some kind of inside info to be confident in. The yard have been flying of late, as they were at this time last year when operating at over 30% with 16 winners from 52 runners.
Guy hasn't been seen since May when winning over today's C&D rated 128. The two breathing down his neck that day both carried a chunk less weight but have done OK since, the 2nd came into the race off a win and won immediately after. With the yard form and the fact he won off a similar break last year, the place claims look strong enough.
He was only raised 2lbs for his win last time, the trainer reaches for the yard's top apprentice who'll take off a very handy 7lbs, putting the horse 5lbs below his last win. He's typically failed at this level which isn't ideal given there are a few class droppers/successful horses at this level but I'll throw him in hoping the long trip back up to Kelso isn't a wasted journey.
Expound 7/2 four places – 16.15 Tipperary
The bookies for whatever reason are taking no chances with my selection, a clear 2nd favourite with essentially all of the value sucked out but I thought he offered slightly more value than the runner I was going to chance who has seen support now into 7/1 (Vischio).
The dual-purpose trainer has a terrible record in this sphere but the horse did at least win when last seen over obstacles back in August. That was a maiden hurdle but I'm going to stick with him after just a rise of 4lbs. The 2nd won next time out, the 3rd put in a decent performance and the distant 4th also went in.
His last two runs have been on the flat, with a 1st and 2nd to his name, hopefully, that at least means he's still race-fit and ready to continue his progress hurdling having been very lightly raced.
Faithful Flyer 13/2 three places 14.05 Kelso
It would be smart to stick with those nearer the top of the market in this, given their form and how important it is that all four selections place but we'll take a chance today and perhaps be more cautious going forward
It was only yesterday I was mentioning the Chapman/Menzies combination but my selection hails from a trainer I've held in high regard for a while – Sandy Thomson. He's actually been bang out of sorts of late but did have a winner on this card last year, and this looks his most likely.
Faithful Flyer hasn't been seen since July when finishing a very distant 5th of 13 rated 1lb higher than today. He was 5th of 13 again before that over a potentially inadequate trip but those runs came off of back to back wins which sky rocketed him up in the ratings.
Still 8lbs above his best win, he really doesn't need to be included today but both of those victories were by wide margins and although the form is a low standard, it could be worse. He's back into a Class 4 today, he's won over the C&D too. We'll hope he's prepped for this and can claim a place despite a good four ahead of him.
Natasia 7/1 – 16.25 Kelso
Natasia is an ex-Rebecca Menzies horse who was switched to Lucinda Russell's yard after a couple of close calls last summer. She made her stable debut back in May after 9 months off, finishing a 4 length 3rd off 5lbs higher over today's trip.
She's had two runs over obstacles since then, a pleasing enough 5th at Stratford when catching my eye over 2m6f, before failing badly over 3 miles when I tipped her up. Now back to what seems to be her optimum trip, she is clearly weighted to have a shout despite her recent form, so I am happy to give her another go.
*Advised Bet – Eachway L15*
WHAT IS A LUCKY 15 BET?
A Lucky 15 bet consists of 15 unique bets, covering every possible combination that comes from backing four selections. The 15 bets are broken down like this:
– 1 fourfold accumulator
– 4 trebles, with each treble omitting one of your selections
– 6 doubles, again covering every possible combination
– 4 singles
The attraction of a Lucky 15 is that it offers many more ways to win than a standard accumulator. A Lucky 15 uses both your acca and your singles as well as producing trebles and doubles that reward you for correctly calling 2/4 or 3/4 of your selections. To cover the 15 separate bets, a Lucky 15 uses your stake 15 times. If you were to place £1 on a Lucky 15, you would be staking £15 in total across the various bets.
