Thursday’s Racing Tips – Put bookmakers to the sword with Machete Beach

This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.

Rizzel was left with only one selection due to the meeting at Nottingham being abandoned due to heavy rainfall. Unfortunately, Mintana could only manage a third-place finish after plugging on in the final furlong after being out-paced in the early stages of the contest.

Cairnzy's Tips

Machete Beach 2/1 – Newcastle 5.05

I've enjoyed following the Harry Charlton yard this term and they've rewarded me with some winning selections since the start of the flat season. Not much caught my eye on Thursday despite there being quite a few meetings on for punters to get tucked into, but I did come across the Harry Charlton-trained Machete Beach in the evening meeting at Newcastle, and thought he was worthy of a bet.

Despite being the only three-year-old in the field, I thought Machete Beach had shown enough promise in his three previous races to suggest he could progress past this lot. Notably, Newcastle has been a happy hunting ground for Harry Charlton this season with four winning horses from 9 when sending them up to Newcastle.

My selection won on debut at Lingfield back in April when just getting the better of Golden Path on the line. Golden Path switched hands to Ewan Williams after that run and won first time out for his new trainer when winning a Juvenile Maiden Hurdle by five and a half lengths. Machete Beach followed up one month later at Windsor, showing that he was just as capable on the turf as he was on the AW. He didn't win with much in hand that day but he saw off the challenge of the odds on favourite Lennox who has since boosted the form when winning last week at Southwell.

My selection was then sent handicapping in his most recent run at Kempton last month and although he wasn't able to to land the hattrick, it was an encouraging run to finish runner-up behind Andrew Baldings Incensed who looks a progressive type on paper. Machete Beach runs off the same mark for this race and it doesn't appear as competitive as his most recent outing in handicap company.

Rizzel's Tips

Guard Your Dreams – Warwick 2.55

There is a fair amount of risk involved with backing Guard Your Dreams on chase debut, but I think he is worth the risk in a fairly weak race compared to what he has raced against in recent years.

Guard Your Dreams is no longer a spring chicken and is now an 8-year-old, which is relatively late to be getting into the chasing world, but normally, when horses are good over hurdles they do tend to stay over the small obstacles. Nigel Twiston-Davies' horse used to be a Class 1 hurdler from a couple of years ago, but he must've had a severe injury as he had over 600 days off the track and when he returned he wasn't anywhere near the same level, which is a slight concern, but with them going for fences over his first start of the new season would suggest they have hit him spot on for this race as they would surely not want to risk his well-being.

It is an obvious risk going for a horse who has now experience in public of jumping a fence but Guard Your Dreams is related to a chase winner in Cary's Comodity who produced a career best RPR from one her four runs over fences, so it gives a bit of optimism.

In terms of today's opposition, it is a decent enough race, but if my selection was to turn up anywhere near his best, he'd blow this field apart. He has been given a good chance by the handicapper as he is now racing off a mark of 132 which is much lower than his Grade 2 win (not a handicap but was rated 147) and he did win off 140 over hurdles in a handicap, so if his fitness is spot on, and he can jump a fence, this is a great opportunity to get off the mark at the first time of asking over the bigger obstacles.

Nigel Twiston-Davies is having a good time of things at the moment and his yard has fired in three winners from ten runners in the last fortnight.

Don Hollow – Warwick 3.30

It's a big risk to give Don Hollow a chance on his first start in over 500 days, but if he was to return to the form of a couple of years ago, this is a great chance of getting his head in front as I don't think the opposition is particularly strong.

Don Hollow's sole win came over hurdles came on soft ground, but he did manage to win on good ground on his bumper debut so the ground should be fine whatever it is when they turn up to the track. The form of his hurdle runs from a couple of years ago is definitely some of the best form in this race. He was behind Ukantango and Royal Mogul, the former went on to be 124 rated over hurdles and the latter 122 rated. The run behind Persian Time looks like solid form as well, with that winner now being 135 rated chaser, and the likes of Kandoo Kid who was in third is in the 140s.

After that good start to his hurdling career he managed to win a race at Catterick on the soft. The form is solid for the grade and he would've won with more authority if he jumped the last in better fashion. Since then, he has raced twice and put in a poor showing on both occasions. He hasn't been seen in 531 days, so it's going to take some training performance to get him to win on his first start since, but he has had a wind-op in the time he's been away and the handicapper has kindly dropped him 6lbs, putting him on a decent enough handicap mark if Dan Skelton has got him firing.

Horse Racing Tips

🔗 Share Your Horse Racing Tips on Social Media