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Well, yesterday did not go well. A big drifter, before never getting involved, Arenas Del Tiempo was a disappointment. I’d love to say that will be my last no-show, but it won’t be, that’s for sure. Regular betting is all about taking the rough with the smooth and that was certainly rough. Let’s hope we move towards the smooth end of the scale today.
| Bath - 14:40 |
Marsh Benham |
10/1 |
Tuesday’s Nap runs at Bath, where rain is expected for a large part of the day, meaning that the forecast soft ground will likely become heavy.
I certainly wouldn’t call Marsh Benham a mud lark, but that’s primarily because he hasn’t had too many chances to show his heavy-ground credentials. However, around this time last year, the gelding won easily on heavy ground at Windsor, shooting clear over today’s trip, doing so in a better race than this from higher in the weights. I’m not ignoring that effort.
Can be a serious player at Class 6 level
Not only did the five-year-old win a better race than this on heavy ground at Windsor last term, but he comes into this contest having performed credibly (finishing third) in a Class 5 event at Brighton a month ago.
Moreover, his Class 6 record is not to be sneezed at. George Baker’s horse has won two and placed in two of his last four runs at this level. In 12 career runs in Class 6 company, the gelding has recorded three wins and six places, winning from today’s mark of 64 (and higher).
In his training career, George Baker hasn’t turned to Jack Mitchell all that often, but he doesn’t often put the jockey on a bad one. Of the 17 rides that Mitchell has taken up for Baker, four have won, with seven placing, leaving the pair with a win/place strike rate of 64.70%. Consider this in conjunction with all the other positives here and odds of 10/1 really do start to look chunky.
For my money, at odds of 10/1, Marsh Benham is a very solid bet, one that represents a decent amount of value as he clearly ticks more than enough boxes to warrant stronger support.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£34 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
