Port Vale vs Swindon
Port Vale are in a strong position to secure a victory over Swindon this weekend, having made a promising start to the season with a record of W3-D2-L2. Both losses came under unfortunate circumstances, at home to Doncaster, where Vale won the xG battle 2.48 vs 2.42, and away to league leaders Barrow, who scored four goals from just 0.75 xG.
Currently ranked fifth on xPTS and xGD, Port Vale have a solid platform to build on, with manager Darren Moore's experience proving crucial. Despite their relegation from League One last season, the addition of Jayden Stockley has strengthened the attack, with the striker netting three goals in six appearances. Defensively, only four teams have allowed fewer shots.
Swindon, on the other hand, have found the season more difficult, holding a record of W1-D3-L3. They have managed only two wins in their last 20 away games, conceding an average of 1.95 goals per match. Their only victory this season came at home against Newport, and they have yet to win on the road.
A 1-1 draw with Barrow saw Swindon benefit from a team playing with an outfield player in goal. With Swindon's away struggles and Vale's form, the home side looks set to take all three points.
- Best Bet: Port Vale to win at 1.91 with Sporting Index
Blackpool vs Burton
Blackpool head into their match against Burton as strong favourites, thanks to a revival in form under new manager Steve Bruce. Following a tough start to the season, where they suffered two losses and parted ways with Neil Critchley, Bruce has overseen a turnaround with three consecutive wins.
The victories against Charlton and Huddersfield stood out, as Blackpool dominated the xG battle 1.33 vs 0.52 at Huddersfield and showed determination to get past Charlton. Currently, they rank third for xPTS over the last four games and fourth for the season, signalling their improvement.
At Bloomfield Road, Blackpool have been solid, boasting a W12-D5-L3 record over their last 20 games, including nine clean sheets. With the squad they have, they are well-positioned to push for a top-six finish.
Burton, on the other hand, have had a tough season. They rank 22nd on xPTS and in the league table while sitting 20th in non-penalty xG ratio. Despite being undefeated on their travels with three draws, they have lost the xG battle in all of them.
Their away xG of 0.81 demonstrates their lack of threat and over their last fixtures this xG drops to just 0.42. With just two wins from their last 20 League One matches; it seems unlikely they will be able to derail Blackpool’s momentum under Bruce.
- Best Bet: Blackpool win and over 1.5 goals at 1.73 with Paddy Power
Walsall vs Colchester
Walsall look well-positioned to secure another home win at the Bescot Stadium against Colchester this weekend, given their impressive form and strong home performances. Walsall have won five of their seven matches this season (W5-D0-L2), and at home, they remain unbeaten with a perfect record of three wins from three, defeating Morecambe, Cheltenham, and Bradford.
They are currently ranked first for xPTS, non-penalty xG, and key metrics like shots in the box and shots on target ratios. Defensively, they’ve been excellent, conceding just four goals all season with an xGA of only 0.33. At home, their defence has been particularly tight, allowing just zero, two and two shots on target across their three games.
They should be full of confidence of taking Premier League Leicester City to penalties in the EFL Cup in midweek. The Foxes made 10 changes, but it was still a very experienced team.
Colchester, meanwhile, have struggled against stronger opposition. Although they sit 11th in the table, they’ve only faced one top-15 team, losing 4-2 to Wimbledon. On the road, Colchester are yet to win (W0-D2-L1), managing draws against the league’s bottom two sides, Accrington and Morecambe.
They rank ninetieth on xPTS and 20th for non-penalty xG ratio when playing away, highlighting their issues on the road. Under Danny Cowley, defensive stability has been lacking, with just four clean sheets in his 27 matches. Given Walsall’s dominance at home and Colchester’s struggles, I am happy to back Walsall to win the game.
- Best Bet: Walsall to win at 1.95 with QuinnBet
