Thursday’s Racing Tips – Luke Morris can steer Overture to victory at Pontefract

Rizz managed to land a winner on Wednesday, with Tailorman winning by the thinnest of margins in the finale at Kempton. 

Sambucus wasn't up to much in her race yesterday and despite being nicely bred she has a lot of work to do if she's going to achieve anything in the world of racing.

Rizzels decision to put his faith in Whipmaster again came back to bite him, as he performed well below expectations. It's not the first time an old selection has let us down when we've rolled the dice again and no doubt he'll come out and win sometime soon when we've not tipped him up.

Cairnzy's Tips

Olympus Point 2/1 – Newmarket 2.10

I'm not fully convinced that this contest is as competitive as the market would have you think and the horse that stood out to me as the most likely winner was the Charlie Appleby-trained Olympus Point who jockey William Buick will ride.

Although still a maiden after three career starts, I still feel my selection brings the best form to the table. Olympus Point showed clear signs of ability on debut when finishing second behind his stablemate Cavallo Bay. Olympus Point was only half a length behind Cavallo Bay that day and the winner has since gone on to third in Group company. Furthermore, the third-placed horse Seagolazo won the next time out and recently placed in a competitive Class 2 which earned him an OR of 94. Olympus Point was turned over at odds on in his next outing at Haydock but took a step back in the right direction recently when finishing runner up at Thirsk. He wasn't beaten that far into second on that occasion and is open to further progress after only three career starts.

Top weight Celeborn is interesting from the George Boughey yard but I wasn't fully convinced on the form of his two career starts. He won comfortably enough on debut but the second-placed horse Metro Dubai has been a turned-over favourite in his last three outings. Chesneys Charm who was back in fourth that day has won two races since at low levels but the remainder of that field are yet to show any sort of form. Celeborn was then soundly beaten in his next outing, finishing just over 5L behind the eventual winner and despite making up some ground down the straight I still thought it was a below-par performance. George Boughey's runner also carries top weight in this contest and has to give 2lb to my selection which could prove a tough ask if Olympus Point progresses on.

Rizzel's Tips

Overture 15/8  – Pontefract 3.10

On paper, this race looks competitive as you have a couple of three-year-old horses who are still unexposed at the trip and bring some solid form to the table. Also, we have the older horses who are on good handicap marks on older pieces of form. However, I think it's not as strong as it might look to some. In my opinion, this race is all about whether Overture handles the potential cut in the ground that the weather forecast suggests should be the going come the time of racing. It shouldn't be bottomless, with the level of rain expected to drop pointing it more towards good to soft. If she handles slightly slower conditions to what she has faced, she should be tough to beat.

Mr Monaco is my idea of the main threat to my selection as he has run well in better handicaps than this, but I just feel like Overture is more progressive and has more to come off her handicap mark when you compare to the amount Mr Monaco has.

Luke Morris oozed confidence at Yarmouth just over a week ago on Overture. He was spending more times looking in the wing mirrors of Overture than actually looking ahead of him as he knew he had a huge advantage over the opponents last time out. He probably took the mick for too long as the runner-up was in top gear whilst Overture was in cruise control and when the runner-up bridged the gap, Luke nudged her out enough to get the win, but it could have been won with many lengths if they wanted it to.

The ground is a question mark, but I think she is worth the shot of her handling it as she is evidently the most progressive horse in the race, which isn't a surprise given it's a Sir Mark Prescott horse who is known for having a horse with this profile.

Up The Pace 5/2 – Pontefract 4.53

David Probert doesn't ride all too often at Pontefract but has four rides on Thursday, a couple looking like spares with the ride of Up The Pace and the one in the finale appearing to be the reason why he has made the trip up to Yorkshire.

I'm hoping Up The Pace can continue his progression after winning on his handicap debut in a Class 5 nursery at Salisbury thirteen days ago. He had shown a decent level of form from his maiden races, bu everything clicked when running over 7f on good to soft ground last time out. He made up a decent amount of ground to lead, and did hang to the right-hand side when under pressure, but he did stay on nicely and won with a fair bit in hand, enough to suggest the 5lb increase in the weights isn't going to be a problem.

Today, he drops back down to 6f which shouldn't be an issue as Pontefract is one of the stiffest courses in the country where it's a constant uphill climb to the line from the starting stalls, which means the stamina he has shown for the extra furlong will be an added bonus in the finish. David Probert rode him for the first time last time out, and given this is the first-ever runner at the track for new trainer Edward Smyth-Osbourne, I think this was the horse that David Probert was making the trip up to Pontefract for as it seems too much of a coincidence that they have ventured outside of their usual racecourses to go for this race and Probert is here for the ride.

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