Rizzel is very fond of Kaiya Fraser and he managed to land the goods on Three Platoon at Newcastle, advised at 6/1.
Kaiya didn't have to do too much as the horse was clearly well handicapped in that level of race, but he is in tremendous form and is always one to watch.
I'm not sure what went wrong with Balqaa at Newcastle last night but something was definitely a miss. Paul Mulrennan rightly eased down once entering the final furlong and the horse of course finished in last place.
Cairnzy's Tips
Sambucus 16/1 EW – Redcar 3.55
Liberty Coach appears poised to complete the hat trick in this race. If he reproduces the dominant 4-length victory he achieved at Doncaster last time out, he will be a tough nut to crack. However, the penalty he shoulders for that recent success makes him less appealing at the current 4/5 odds, so I've opted to look elsewhere for value in this contest.
The horse that caught my eye was the Ed Walker-trained Sambucus, who is bred to be much better than her current rating OR of 75. She's a lightly raced filly at the age of three with only three career outings under her belt and showed clear signs of ability on debut when finishing 1L down in third. The form of the debut run is nothing special although the second-placed horse Islanova who is trained by Sir Michael Stoute has since won and now rated in the low 80s.
Sambucus then finished fourth in a competitive Class 2 contest, which was eventually won by Clove Hitch, who now has an OR of 100. Clove Hitch won convincingly that day, beating the second-placed horse by 8 lengths, with the third-place finisher and Sambucus a further 8 lengths back. Sambucus was then soundly beaten in her most recent outing at Ffos Las which I'm happy to draw a line through as she seemingly struggled to handle the heavy ground conditions that day.
For what it's worth, my selection has been relatively fancied in the betting in her last two starts, going off at odds of 5/2 and 4/1, suggesting that this filly must have some sort of ability. I think if she can reproduce an improved effort from what she showed on debut that she may be able to make her presence felt in this race, and at 16/1, I'm more than happy to have a small eachway play.
Rizzel's Tips
The Whipmaster 5/1 – Kempton 7.00
I put up The Whipmaster at Windsor just over a week ago and it was baffling how we didn't come away with a victory as he traveled throughout the race like the winner but didn't find much in the final furlong.
I am giving the Gary & Josh Moore horse another go, as I do feel aggrieved that we didn't get a return last time out, but I do sit on the same opinion that I think he is on a very tempting handicap mark and is coming to the boil, with the run last time out proving that. Today's race is another competitive handicap so it's not going to be an easy race to win, but he is evidently in great form and running off the same mark from Windsor he has to be one of the main horses to beat in this race.
Last time out was his second run after a big layoff since having his second wind surgery, so hit fitness might not have been at 100% and watching the race back, I do think that could have easily been the case as he went from travelling well to not finding much when Tom Queally asked for a strong effort, so with that second run under his belt he should be primed for a winning effort in today's race. The form from his first run back from the wind-op has worked out strongly. The Whipmaster had to carry 10st 4lbs and give away 18lbs to the winner who only had a winning margin of a length. The winner has since followed up and won by 9.5L off a 3lb higher mark, which was 8lbs as the 5lb claimer wasn't able to claim the second time around
The yard is in decent nick, with four winners in the last fortnight. I would be shocked if he didn't cruise into contention like last time out, but this time around he will put the race to bet when Tom asks him to.
Tailorman 9/4 – Kempton 8.30
It does pain me to go against Kaiya Fraser's horse who arrives looking for the hat-trick, but I do think Tailorman has a cracking chance with Ryan Kavanagh claiming 7lbs.
Thankfully, Ryan Kavanagh is on board Tailorman and claims 7lbs as my selection would have to shoulder 10st 3lbs if the claimer wasn't on board, but with him riding it means he is running off a slightly lower weight of 9st 10lbs, which makes life easier with just the one who runs off a lower weight in this race.
Tailorman has been in good form so far this year over the marathon trips, and his recent four runs put him bang there for winning this race. He has contested some stronger races the last two runs, with both of them being at Chester. Last time out especially he ran a cracker to finish 2nd/13 and to only finish behind Small Fry who was still well ahead of the handicapper, with the trip of 14f being on the short side for him, especially round Chester which is hardly the most stamina sapping track. A repeat run of that performance from Chester should see him extremely tough to beat and the return to 16f will be ideal for him.
The one question that Tailorman has to answer is whether the artificial surface suits him as he has only raced on it once before which saw him finish 13th/16, but that was over a mile and knowing what we know now, that was hardly going to suit him.
The jockey is riding well at the moment and is 2/8 in the last fourteen days and he clearly gets on well with this horse as he has been on him the last two times.
In December 2020 we sadly 
