Wednesday’s Lucky 15 Tips – Selections from Hamilton, Bath, Lingfield and Southwell

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I gave a mention to Island Native yesterday and he duly obliged, but as is typical I selected another and it bombed. It must have happened a good four or five times now which is slightly annoying but given they're on the radar, it is surely only a matter of time before the stars align.

Although I am confident in ending up in profit over the long run, going forward, I will endeavour to take less chances and try to trust my instincts which seem to time and time again be a more accurate guide than other selection methods I use. Albeit I wouldn't count today's pick as instinctual in the slightest.

Grant Tuer had a winner 15 minutes before Bicep run, he drifted to 10/1 and put in a great effort finishing 2nd, there was a slight concern we were on too early, he will find easier races and we can look at him again.

I am writing this before the other two have run, the Craig Lidster curse is clearly a real thing, Latin Five's price has doubled whilst his runner, the mentioned Macarone has halved in price. Perhaps the market is reacting to my ”only gave it a mention” strike rate.

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are my busiest days but I tried to start my digging a little earlier today. Rest assured, the worse my selections are, the more I will commit to making this work, so keep yourself in the game, there are some great meetings this month.

Mostar Dreams 7/2 – 18.15 Hamilton

Hamilton is a stiff enough track and little nuisances like that can at least guide in our selection process, add into that heavy ground and you can often discount a few. I had quite a bit written for Lady Celia, but I realised late it won over 5f so I will hope the track proves her undoing – if it wins, I'll clear my desk, a risky thing to say given how likeable it was on paper.

I like to follow Scottish trainers at Scottish meetings, obviously, perhaps none more so than Goldie and Jardine, obviously, they have the two market leaders in this. Rock Melody somehow got up to win last time over C&D in quite a hot race, a 5lb rise hopefully puts her up against it despite still being below her best win, which was over 7f, which only aids her chances here.

I make no apologies for the price of my fairly unexposed selection, she's been extremely consistent and already has a win to her name. She has been tried at some similarly stiff tracks which is why I'm going with it despite the price, as I've said before, any place is better than a 20/1 loser and getting all 4 in the bet to land dramatically increases the return, so if I can chance 20/1 unraced debutants, I don't mind going with the fav once in a while.

She has been raised 3lbs for a 2nd, which is not ideal, 6lbs above her win, the 3rd won next time from her last race and overall the profile is likeable from not a great deal of runs, there's room to progress and worth chancing.

Snow Berry 4/1 – 15.32 Bath

Media Guest was my initial interest given the solid course form, all under this jockey. Now 2lbs above a win here in July he may be worth siding with at the prices, especially if you're a morning bettor, see how the market has reacted to my opinion (joke).

I began to write him up and then had my head turned for a chancy 10/1 shot in Apache Star, given I mentioned a short-priced place is better than a loser, for today I am going to side with a couple of shorties who if they give their effort, should be placing, despite slight reservations we're following this one who could potentially be back on a rating drop mission.

Given how much I've flip-flopped, my write up isn't going to be overly insightful as it's the third I've wrote for this race, without really looking at the quite strong favourite Vaunted.

As for Apache Star, Loughnane and Dawson aren't a combo seen often but 2 winners from 9 rides over the last 12 months reads well. They also have Percy Jones 5/1 in the 14.32, so I'll hope that's their best chance although Ray is here for the in form Grace Harris who was a recent NR. Ray has won for both of the Loughane owners.

Snow Berry as hinted at has been in good form, with three nice runs at Nottingham hiking him up 8lbs in the weights which I absolute detest. The thing that's convinced me is the recent wins the yard have had, coupled with the excellent strike rate at this track. Five winners from just 22 rides, with a further 5 placing reads well and there isn't really much reason to suspect this horse wont be trying now back at the scene of his win as a 3yo in 2021.

I prefer to second guess the game in order to eek out value, it typically works if I can dedicate enough time to the sport, but I'll trust the form in the book and hope it's a justified selection.

Some Nightmare has just gone in and could be pulled, if I still had the Media Guest write up he might have been the value play, which isn't overly acceptable but my eye's been turned for a reason, there are a couple of lurky looking outsiders, such as Fishermans Cottage but for today, this is reasonable enough so we'll just hope Vaunted isn't too strong and we're passed by some outsiders as eased down.

Sir Titan 8/1 – 15.40 Lingfield

I watched a Molly Gunn ride at Chepstow on Monday and quite frankly, she should simply stop riding, by design perhaps, or simply not up to it I don't know, but when you see her barely trying and the winning jockey flat at it, it leaves a nasty taste in your mouth even without being financially invested.

Tony Carrol loves Brighton, it was on recently yet the horse has been held back for Lingfield, the track he's shown his best form at which I hope is significant.

Old boy's have been good to me this week and I'll chance another, his last win coming over C&D back in January with Molly on board. He is now 7lbs below that, he was dropped a furlong 3 weeks later when a neck 2nd of 9lbs higher.

The horse has put in a number of poor efforts since then, I am most put off by the fact he rarely runs over the mile, but I had the same concern for 11yo Kenstone who went 1/3 in running, I suppose as long as we aren't beaten by Dourado, I'll take it.

Hul Ah Bah Loo is out quickly again, upped a furlong and 5lbs after winning here the other day, the trainer is local to Lingfield and always catches the eye.

What I will note is the trainer/owner also has You Are Everything on the card up against a 5/4 shot, so Sir Titan could just be along for the ride, or perhaps the star attraction.

Finally, it is worth noting that I've gone for a couple of shorties, so to pair them up with this risky one is kind of counterintuitive but the strategy has been stressed enough and win or lose, it shouldn't be of any consequence.

Pagan Sun 11/2 3 places – 16.28 Southwell

Given today's prices, Pagan Sun is flung in against a hot pot fav, it isn't a great-looking race card but with 3 places paid, I am hopeful the horse can take a step forward for a combination who don't share many together, but shared two winners on the AW last month – which is my main reasoning.

The horse ran well on debut finishing 3rd and is quickly upped in trip. Lightly raced there is scope for improvement from a small, but impressive trainer.

The sire of the horse has saddled winners beyond 1m4f, including most recently over 1m5f on the AW, which again is not significant enough to pass onto you given how much racing, but that is the best I have today.

I have flipped a coin to keep this horse in, LADYPACKSAPUNCH runs in the last at Bath for in form, local trainer Grace Harris, with 4 places in that race, it was a much safer pick given the horse is a C&D winner but having lost a claimer, she is 6-7 above that, still fully capable of the place for a trainer who has hers ready at the minute, but I'll risk Pagan Sun instead.

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