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After a great end to York, despite walking away with just one winner on Sunday, it was a case of what might have been as I yanked some short priced winners last minute costing us what could have easily been another full house.
Estrange was the easiest winner of the day but the joy was short lived as Emerald's Pride went in at 9/1, a horse I only left out after believing Cairnzy was putting him up – he didn't! Godwinson was noted as the obvious play, I left him out because of the price so to see him win at 9/2 was peeving. Another I swapped late because of his 7/2 price was Rebel Diamond, I left him in the write up in case anyone wanted to back him so it was nice to see he did the business. Going forward I will have to be more inclusive of such prices as any winner is better than an also ran. The day was compounded as Blue Prince outrun the horse I switched him with. Besides Metal Merchant, the three horses mentioned finished 1-2-3, I'll take that as a positive.
Next, I just wanted to comment one last time on the L15, given the discussion/confusion it has caused. My task is to find four each way selections day in day out that are capable of outrunning their price, I must do this roughly 24 hours before the race has even started, without the assistance of a settled market, my point being this puts us at a massive disadvantage. As such, the aim of this bet is to win a lot from a little, if you're just a weekend warrior fair enough, but anyone more seriously invested in horse racing should adjust their stake so they can follow everyday without consequence. The intention being to stay in the game long enough in order to be able to land a big one – as has already been done.
Yesterday was a great example of why L15s are not an optimal betting strategy. If only backing the singles our one 9/2 winner would have resulted in profit. It may surprise you to learn that three 5/1 places in a L15 results in a loss, need I say more? Anyone not adjusting stakes are playing into the hands of the bookmakers and asking to lose. I realise a professional approach detracts from why many people gamble, but no good comes from chasing a hit of dopamine.
Now as I want to be as transparent as possible, my selections today are all worthy of inclusion but I haven't overly scrutinised the other runners and that will always leave us vulnerable.
Attacanter Racing tips
Havanarama 4/1 – 17.35 Southwell
You're always asking for trouble when picking selections without doing the necessary due dilligence but I've seen enough to be happy with this selection. Johnny Peate and Hugo Palmer are a relatively new link up, they've had two runners place from six rides.
When flicking through the form, this horse has simply mixed it with too many horses that have won previously, or soon after, I won't specify but take a look for yourself and you'll see what I mean. The 3lbs Peate takes off should help and this will be easier than his racing league experience last time. Both of the horse's wins have come on the AW.
G'Daay 6/1 4 places – 17.00 Epsom Downs
Joseph Parr was on my list before York so to see he has snuck through two winners from his last 3 runners is a little annoying. With only one horse out today, I am going to chance it despite it winning 2 weeks ago. It isn't something I am overly fond of doing but his horses do generally seem to keep their form and on top of that, it has only been nudged up 2lbs. Furthermore, this horse has nice course form from July last year off of today's mark. Callum Shephard was on the horse last time and logic dictates this horse needs chancing at the prices.
Last time was a Class 5 but the horse has predominantly been racing at this level for most of his career. Jim Boyle is based in Epsom and I came close to chancing Marlay Park who could run well despite a wide draw. Being the last race of the day, the market can guide as to whether you back it as a single. I can't advise Extrication but he would be an annoying winner, he's entered in the Southwell Racing League on Thursday.
Carmarthen 13/2 – 15.22 Southwell
Jack Channon's two didn't do anything yesterday, but a chance might be worth taking on this runner who is now back on the AW and should run his race after a no show last time. Edward Greatrex to my knowledge returned this season and had a good fistful of decent rides, winning plenty. He was on this horse the last time it won in July with Amroom back in 3rd, we're in receipt of 1lb given Amroom won last time over a furlong further.
This horse hasn't shown anything in his last 3 runs but is at least now back over 6f. I am putting a line through his last run when finishing a verrry distant 4/4 on heavy ground. I don't think his form is that impressive but he is lightly raced and more than capable of making his presence felt.
God Bless America 11/2 4 places – 14.47 Southwell
God Bless America had his first two races at this track, finishing 2nd both times. Since getting a rating of 74, he has slid to a mark of 67 without really ever threatening besides on his penultimate start over this distance at Kempton nearly 3 weeks ago. The winner was raised 8lbs and won next time in a Class 3, the 4th has also won since. Obviously the price isn't ideal for a speculative selection carrying top weight from a wide draw but there doesn't seem a lot to beat and a chance is taken with an extra place. My cliff trainer Craig Lidster has an outsider that I suppose I'll monitor in the market. Although I may often be wrong, remember I am putting horses in order of my preference. Finally, this horse has ”drifted” from 9/2 since writing, it isn't much to worry about but I do typically sense it is more likely a bad thing than it is good, I'll keep him in at the expense of MASTER DANDY 4/1 who runs in the 15.57 at Southwell.
– Advised bet – Eachway Lucky15
WHAT IS A LUCKY 15 BET?
A Lucky 15 bet consists of 15 unique bets, covering every possible combination that comes from backing four selections. The 15 bets are broken down like this:
– 1 fourfold accumulator
– 4 trebles, with each treble omitting one of your selections
– 6 doubles, again covering every possible combination
– 4 singles
The attraction of a Lucky 15 is that it offers many more ways to win than a standard accumulator. A Lucky 15 uses both your acca and your singles as well as producing trebles and doubles that reward you for correctly calling 2/4 or 3/4 of your selections. To cover the 15 separate bets, a Lucky 15 uses your stake 15 times. If you were to place £1 on a Lucky 15, you would be staking £15 in total across the various bets.
