Friday’s Racing Tips – York Ebor Festival Day 3 Tips

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Connect was a brave winner under Ryan Moore, staying on strongly to beat her old rival in the Irish Oaks and Emily Upjohn back in third. Connections are aiming her towards the Arc, whether she is good enough, who knows, but the winner of the Yorkshire Oaks has a good recent record in the big French race with the likes of Enable and Alpanista winning it, with Sea Of Class finishing second.

Ryan Moore didn't go from the front on Heavens Gate which was a bit strange given she has been prominent in every run of her career so far, and with how York has been racing, being up with the pace is the place to be. The winner lead from start to finish, so it makes the decision even more baffling. Arizona Blaze had all the form in the book to win that contest in my opinion, and to be beaten by a head to a 22/1 shot was hard to take.

Cairnzy's Tips

Starlust 20/1 EW – York 3.35

What a complete and utter belter of a race, I'm really looking forward to this one!

I was originally tempted with Mick Appleby's Big Evs, he's been a winning tip on this thread in the past and when I saw the opening price of 7/2 I thought that was decent value if you fancied taking on the short priced favourite Asfoora. I've done my study quite late into the day and was gobsmacked to see Big Evs had drifted right out to 13/2 at the time of writing. I mean with four places on offer it's still a cracking each way bet, as you'd expect him at the very least to hit the frame but the significant drift is a concern as much I try not to trust the market in this game. I can understand why Asfoora is favourite, Big Evs got the better of Asfoora last time out at Goodwood, winning by a short head in the end as the pair fought all the way to line. Asfoora carried 5lb more than Big Eves that day and receives 1lb from her rival this time round, which should be enough to reverse the form if she turns up in the same sort of mood. With that said, I've decided to avoid both selections and go down the each way route with Ralph Becketts Starlust.

This is set to be fast and furious, and there is plenty of horses who like to go forward such as Big Evs and Live In The Dream which I'm hoping will play into Starlust's hands to pick up the pieces late on if there happens to be a pace collapse in the front end. Having been campaigned over 6f during the star of his career, Starlust took his form to a new level when dropped to 5f. His CV isn't filled with classy form at Group level over 5f hence why I've mentioned it'll require a career-best, but he does have some nice form over the 5f at a lower level. Notably, his last two wins have also come at this track with a Class 2 handicap victory back in May and a Listed level win last month when he got the better of Tom Clover's Rogue Lightning. Although that form is worth mentioning, it's his third placed effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last year that stood out to me as a solid piece of form. My selection was only a length and a quarter of Big Evs that day and if it wasn't for trouble in running, there was every reason to beleive Starlust should have won that day. It'll take a career best for Starlust to win this contest, I'm not debating that for a second, and we probably need a couple of these to have an off day but at 20/1 Ralph Beckett's charge looks a good each way play.

Derry Lad 10/1 EW – York 1.50

A minefield of a race as you can make claims for plenty in this competitive class 2 handicap. Wafei is interesting for the inform William Haggas stable while Ralph Beckett's Mr Monaco is also an intersting runner on his first attempt at this distance. With that said, I've chosen to go down the eachway route again with four places on offer and take a chance on the Irish raider Derry Lad who looks good value at 10/1 with Tom Marquand booked to take the ride.

My selection has to bounce back after a below par performance at the Galway festival 3 weeks ago after finishing last of 18 during that contest. After looking back through Derry Lad's career to date, it appears he has a habit of running poorly after a break and for that reason alone I'm happy enough to ignore the run with the hope it's blown away cobwebs coming into this contest. Derry Lad tends to run well went sent over to the UK with form figures of 11363 in his last five visits to UK soils. His last visit to Britian resulted in a third placed effort at Epsom in competitive Class 2 handicap over 1m2f. I caught a quick replay of that particular race and Derry Lad can probably count himself a tad unlucky not to have won that day. He finished his race of strongly to finish third however he was denied a clear run on more than one occassion and if given a clear passage I think he would have gone a lot closer. I had a quick look through the form of that race and was glad to see it read well. Paradias who finished runner up that day has since won a class 3 handicap at Glorious Goodwood three weeks ago while the fourth placed horse Haunted Dream also won at Glorious Goodwood when turning over the short priced favourite My Prospero from the William Haggas yard.

Rizzel's Tips

Vauban 9/2 – York 2.25

It pains me to desert one of my favourites Gregory in this race, and it will probably come back to bite me, but I think he isn't as good as I thought he'd turn out to be.

The approach I've taken for this race is that it's not a strong renewal. Point Lonsdale will more than likely be strong in the betting on his first attempt at the trip, and I think that shows how weak this race actually is. His pedigree doesn't fill me with confidence that he wants this far, and I'm more than happy to take him on. The other horses who might be fancied to run well like Alsakib, Night Sparkle and Align The Stars don't really stand out to me either. The 3-year-old at the bottom of the weights looks like a potential pacesetter alongside Quickthorn, and though I think the runner-up is a smart horse, the third-placed horse from the Glorious Goodwood race was 6th/16 at this meeting earlier this week. The filly Night Sparkle shouldn't be good enough based on her form behind Trueshan and then behind Term Of Endearment last time out. Then Alsakib, though he is improving and looks like he will appreciate the longer trip, the ground could be too lively for him and beating the likes of Al Qareem and Wise Eagle is hardly an outstanding claim, even in this weak-ish Group 2 field. Also, Oisin would've had the pick of the Balding pair and he's opted for the filly.

I landed on Vauban as on his day he is a very smart horse, we all know that. His form on the flat is very in-and-out, he burst onto the flat scene when winning a Royal Ascot handicap in emphatic style last year off a mark of 101. The form of that race actually looks decent as the runner-up then went on to win the Ebor last year. Since then, he finished middle of the field in the Melbourne Cup after being heavily punted into favourite, but that simply wasn't a true showing. This year, he made a nice comeback at today's track to finish second to the improving Giavelotto, who has turned into a cracking prospect for Marco Botti. He was keen that day and looked fresh and in need of the run, but still managed to finish ahead of Gregory. He then ran a solid race in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, finishing fourth. I don't think he stayed the trip at Ascot, but he went through the race very smoothly, and if you compare to how easily he went past Gregory with around four furlongs to travel, he breezed past him like he was a handicapper, which makes me believe the drop back to 2m on quick ground and with hopefully a good pace to aim at will be perfect for Willie Mullins' horse. Last time out he wasn't seen to best effect. The eventual runner-up nicked at least 12L on the field which meant Vauban had to show a turn of foot and rally, which I don't think is ideal for him. I think he has a good cruising speed off a good gallop and then when the others are tired, he has the stamina to kick on, so I'm more than happy to put a line through that run.

Today's race we should have a decent gallop on. The Johnston horse likes to go forward and so does Quickthorn. The latter named horse slipped the field in this race a couple of years ago and they managed to do it at Goodwood in the Group 1 last year, but surely the jockeys will be wise enough to not let that happen again…so you'd think. I think that should set it up nicely for Vauban who stays the trip nicely, and I think Gregory is the main danger, but I still have doubts over his stamina, even after his good third at Goodwood last time out.

Andesite 6/1 EW  – York 3.00

For my second selection of Day 3 of the Ebor Festival, I am going for Andesite to spring a small shock in the Gimcrack.

There are some good horses in this race with some solid form, but I think they are beatable. It seems a little crazy that The Strikin Viking has been given an opening mark of 109, even with the strong look of form to his name. He was second at Glorious Goodwood last time out when turned over at short odds of 11/10F, and he was headed close home in that race, so if you were backing him for this race, you've got to be concerned as Goodwood is an easier track than York. Big Mojo was a winner from Glorious Goodwood and will always be fancied to go well in these races as he sports the same colours as his ownermate Big Evs. He was slow away last race but stayed on well to win nicely at the line over 5f, so based on that, you can see why they are trying him over a furlong longer today. Then you've got the Ballydoyle horse who was the favourite for the Coventry, but didn't show up on the day, and has since finished a close second to the Phoenix Stakes Group 1 winner, Babouche.

Obviously, it's not going to be an easy task for the unexposed and one-time-raced Andesite, but he looks to have a fair amount of ability. He recorded an RPR of 92 on his debut, which is a decent effort, and considering he looked far from the finished article that day, I think it was a very good start to his career. He looked like he knew what his job was, but he looked raw and was a bit green at times, shown by his balance when the runner-up swung violently towards him when they were a few lengths clear. He showed a good cruising speed and a good turn of foot. They didn't go a crazy gallop in that race, but I think with how the track has been racing, the fast ground will really suit this lad, and if they go a good pace, he could pounce late and nick this from a low draw, which has been vital so far this week.

The final furlong was great to see as you rarely see an unraced horse have the battling attributes that this lad showed. If you watch the replay back, when Tudhope asked him to fight the runner-up, he dropped his head and went through with it, which is really promising. Not every horse takes to York, and it's strange because it is a fairly conventional galloping track, but for some reason, it's like marmite for horses, they love it or hate it. Andesite has the course experience and is already proven at this course which is a big tick in my book. The Clipper Logistics ownership love to have winners at this meeting, and they got on the board yesterday, so it's interesting that Karl Burke has sent this horse for this race given how strong his juveniles are this year, and I think that's a vote of confidence on this lad.

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