Tuesday’s Racing Tips – A return to the AW can see Ahlain back to winning ways

This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.

Myself and Rizz landed a winning selection each on Monday which ensured it was a profitable day with the other two selections losing.

The two winning selections weren't the most exciting of prices, but they still have to get the job done and they did quite easily in the end which is all that matters. Our other two selections performed considerably under par, particularly Ayr Poet who ran a shocker at a course he tends to run well at.

Cairnzy's Tips

Ahlain 9/2 – Lingfield 2.45

I was surprised to see James Tate's filly marked up as big as 9/2 for this contest given she's been running with credit in much higher-quality races than this in her previous few outings.

My selection was well below par last time out at Carlisle, finishing 12L of the winner Jabarra in last place but prior to that though she was incredibly progressive on the AW, and brings the best form to the table with her recent three outings on the artificial surface. She finished a length and a half off Charlie Appleby's Devoted Queen in a Class 2 at Kempton. Devoted Queen is now rated in the low 100s and has also won at Listed level this season.

My selection also ran with credit in a Listed race at this course when finishing in fourth place and just under 2L behind the eventual winner Watch My Tracer. The form of that contest reads well with the third-placed Orne going on to finish second behind Inisherin in a Group 2 at Haydock and Inisherin boosted the form of that run when following up with a Group 1 success at Ascot next time out. My selection still looks fairly treated back in handicap company and can make her presence felt in these calmer waters.

Wisper 11/4 – Lingfield 3.45

My first selection of the day comes in the shape of the M P Tregoning trained Wisper, who arrives here on the back of an encouraging run at Glorious Goodwood.

Wisper was tipped up at Glorious Goodwood on the thread by Rizzel as a 12/1 each-way play when contesting in the competitive Class 2 British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Handicap, which saw him finish fifth place on the day, and only one and a half lengths behind the eventual winner Al Anoud. Kieran Shoemark was on board Wisper in that contest and there are no two ways about it, it was a complete and utter disaster of a ride… no surprises there eh? Shoemark attempted to go straight through the middle of the pack and ran into a wall of horses as the gap closed, where I felt if he angled out and kept her straight she'd have won. Who am I to scrutinize the professionals though? Maybe I'm wrong.

Tomorrow's contest represents a drop in class and doesn't look as competitive as the race at Glorious Goodwood. The usual hold-up tactics that are used on this mare are sure to be put in place again as there does seem to be a bit of pace involved in this field and with only 7 runners going to post, she should hopefully find no trouble in running on this occasion when it comes to making her challenge late on. Oisin Murphy is booked to take the ride on Wisper, however, I've just found out that Oisin failed to arrive at Kempton yesterday to provide a breath sample, so another jockey could replace him.

Rizzel's Tips

Almudena 7/4 – Nottingham 4.00

I actually really like the look of this 2m race. Long-distance races aren't normally the races people like the most, but this looks like a proper contest and you could easily give a chance to any of the runners to win this.

I am doing this before all of the bookies have priced the race up, but I'd imagine that Almudena will be a short-priced favourite for this, and if she is then I can't really complain as she is a progressive Sir Mark Prescott horse who is running from the bottom of the weights. I caught her last race at the time it happened and I thought Luke Morris gave her a very good ride. This filly is normally slow out of the gates, so instead of riding her along early to get a prominent position, Luke sat quietly at the back. He then switched her to the outside in the straight so she could get a clear run of things and when Luke got serious on her she showed a good turn of foot to hit the front and then showed grit and determination to fend off the runner-up, who she managed to beat in a photo finish. That race was over 14f, so today's race over an extra 2f asks a few different questions, but I didn't think she was slowing down at the line, if anything, she was only starting to get rolling.

She has been upped 4lbs for the win at Sandown, which is nothing in reality and should not be enough to halt her progress. It looks like a lovely bit of placing from Sir Mark Prescott to get her into this race at the bottom of the weights, running off 8st 3lbs which is a tiny weight in comparison to her rivals, with the nearest horse being 7lbs heavier. Luke's lowest riding weight in the last 12 months has been 8st 2lbs, and I can't imagine he has to ride at this weight all too often, and it will take some doing to get down to this light, which is normally a good indicator that a jockey really rates the horses chance.

The Sir Mark Prescott yard is in red-hot form. The stable has had 7 winners from the last 15 runners, which is a 47% SR.

Indemnity 5/1 EW – Hamilton 7.00

Arguably the best race of the day for Tuesday comes in the 7.00pm at Hamilton which sees a fair few southern raiders taking their chance for the £12,370 prize to the winner.

Roger Varian sends one runner up to Scotland and P J McDonald goes to the track for the one ride on Indemnity. Roger hasn't used P J much in his training career, with just three runs for the jockey in many years, but that has seen him get one win and his only start for the Varian yard this season was in the big John Smith's handicap at York which saw them finish second, so Roger does rate McDonald enough to give him a ride in a big race, so for his only runner at the track to have P J on is a good booking in my opinion.

Roger has a very good strike rate when sending his horses to this track. His overall strike rate at Hamilton stands at 40% from 40 runners, which is a fantastic stat. In the last five years that SR has been seen to an even better level, this time operating at a 50% SR, with a further 5 being in the places, which goes to show that he doesn't mess around when he sends his runners up this venue.

Indemnity is bred to be a very good horse but probably will be best seen when he tackles a slower surface, which is why I think he has a decent chance in this race today. He has only been on ground slower than good on two occasions, and one of those came on soft ground on his seasonal reappearance on the back of a 168-day absence and a gelding operation, so he was definitely in need of that run, but ran with credit. The time after he ran to a +11lb RPR to his rating at the time on good to soft. He has since won a maiden on good ground, in a race which he should've, and then has run some okay races in defeat on the AW and on good ground last time out. He is becoming an expensive horse to follow with him being a beaten favourite on three of the last four runs, but I think he is worth another shot now encountering a slower surface again and the fact they are travelling up to Scotland speaks volumes.

He is a half-brother to the Group 1 winning filly, Sea Silk Road. The Haggas horse just mentioned was versatile on the ground, but her best performances came on a slower surface, including her Group 1 win and her maiden Class 1 victory. On pedigrees, Indemnity should prefer the softer ground more than his half-sister as he is by Lope De Vega who has produced many soft-ground horses over the years, also the dam was a very consistent performer on soft ground.

It might be the cowards' route going for a 5/1 EW, but given how competitive this race is and with 11 runners, I think it is the wiser option.

Horse Racing Tips

🔗 Share Your Horse Racing Tips on Social Media