Cairnzy & Rizzel's Racing Tips

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One of Rizzel's selections was announced as a non-runner so we were left with only the 3 selections on Thursday.

Unbreak My Heart was never involved throughout his race while my other selection One Look ran a stinker at Galway, which was surprising given her past form on softer ground conditions.

Cairnzy's tips

Orbaan 16/1 EW – Goodwood 3.00

This is as competitive as it gets, but with Bet365 offering 5 places, I thought the David O'Meara-trained Orbaan represented a good each-way angle into this at 16/1, and he could go well with a handy draw in stall 4 under jockey Silvestre De Sousa.

The David O'Meara yard is flying this season, and he holds some solid chances throughout the day at Glorious Goodwood with Get Shirty in the opener another one to note. He also runs Blue For You, Darkness and Rhoscolyn in this contest with Blue For You shading favouritism at 11/2 on the back of his impressive win at York in a class 2 handicap last time out.

It might be a bit crazy going for Orbaan, who comes here as the oldest horse in the lineup at the age of 9, but I can't help but feel he has a solid chance. Orbaan returned to winning ways at Carlisle two starts back before finishing fourth over the same C&D two weeks later. My selection is back down to a mark of 87, a mark that he was successful at when winning this same contest two years ago. As already mentioned, Goodwood tends to favour those from a lower draw, and from stall 4 under a low weight, I'm hoping De Sousa can pop out on him and keep it simple. You always need luck in running in these big field handicaps but at 16/1, I couldn't let him go unnoticed in the market.

Tanager 10/1 EW – Goodwood 4.45

I'm a massive fan of the Eve Johnson yard, In particular her youngsters in which she tends to do very well with. This is another ultra-competitive affair but I like the chances of her runner Tanager, who at 10/1 looks a nice each-way play with Bet365 offering 5 places in this race.

My selection does come with his risks as he tends to run quite freely throughout his races. He is still lightly raced, having only run the four races to date, so there is the possibility he will mature with experience. Tanager was gelded before stepping foot onto a race course and I'm yet to see him grow out of that habit. With that said, It's hard to knock his performances so far, and the fact he's performed as well as he's done despite running green tells me if he's able to settle a bit better throughout, then he can definitely make his presence felt.

He finished third last time out at Salisbury in a class 2 over 6f. I thought that was a cracking effort given he was conceding weight all around that day, and only finished 3L of the eventual winner Caburn. The form of that effort reads well with Caburn following up next time out when landing the class 2 Super Sprint at Newbury last month. There is plenty of pace on offer in this race, which I'm hoping will allow Tanager to settle a bit better throughout the race. He's drawn nicely in stall 5 and can go well under Charles Bishop at an attractive price of 10/1.

Rizzel's tips

Socialite 15/2 EW – Goodwood 2.25

I do think Al Musmak is the one to beat, and he's not a terrible price to have a bet on him, as I was expecting shorter. However, I am going to take a chance on Socialite who was behind the Varian horse last time out at Newmarket.

Charlie Hills is having a terrible time of things at the minute, with zero winners in the last 15 days, but the majority of the runners have been double-priced, so it looks worse on paper than what it probably is. That isn't enough to put me off backing Socilate who is an each-way price and could easily get his own way in front in this race. I managed to catch his last race at the time it went off and at the finish I thought the horse to take out of it was Socialite as he did a lot of things wrong, but ran with credit and with more experience behind him and maybe some headgear, he could be a real force at this level over a mile. Connections haven't opted for any headgear just yet, but I think that Goodwood could be a track which suits him down to the ground.

Socialite is a free-going horse, we've seen that on every start so far (three career starts), and last time out was by far the worst. Tom Marquand really struggled to keep control of him and in the end, had to let the horse do his own thing and that was to race on his own away from the others and he went at least 10L clear early into the race. The closers did get to him, but other than the winner, he plugged on and I thought that was ridiculous how he managed to do that given how much energy he expended in the first half. Goodwood is a much less testing track than Newmarket, and the downhill finish to the line will make it a lot easier for him to get home. If, and it's a big if, Tom can settle him a fraction better, he could potentially run from the front and be a very tough nut to crack, as he clearly has a big engine as I've already stated, and as we've seen on countless times this festival, horses can struggle to get a run from in behind, especially if they are off the bridle, which I think Socialite can achieve here.

I don't think this is a particularly strong race, with many in this having underperformed on last year's runs, so I can see my lightly raced selection improving and grabbing a place at the very least.

Starlust 8/1 EW – Goodwood 3.35

This is going to be a cracking race and it's going to be fast and furious as we have perfect summer flat racing ground and it's on one of the quickest 5f tracks in the world. There is a lot of pace in this race with the likes of Desperate Hero, Big Evs and Live In The Dream all likely to set a frantic pace, and it might set it up for a closer if they take each other on. I am opting for the fastly improving horse Starlust to pick up the pieces late in the race.

Starlust has been campaigned as a 6f horse for the most of his short career so far, but his best runs have come when he's been running over 5f. Today's test raises new questions as this is going to be a serious speed test, but given the way he has been finishing off his races at this distance, I think he could be outpaced before staying on very strongly, whether there will be enough time to run down those ahead of him only time will tell, but I think he could upset the applecart. He has only run over today's trip three times, which has seen him win twice and finish third at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Sprint Turf behind Big Evs where things didn't quite go to plan. If you are a fan of Big Evs, you've got to be wary of Starlust as in America Big Evs got to the front and didn't have a troubled passage whereas Starlust tried making ground before the turn and nearly when in the back of a horse in front him, and due to the nature of Santa Anita, that made life difficult when trying to make ground when they were on the straight.

Starlust has done nothing but improve this year over 5f, he is 2/2 at York and his most recent run was a very impressive victory. The level of horse he beat isn't on the same level he is up against today, but he did it with ease when Hector Crouch asked him to go and win his race, and his winning margin of 1.5L could've easily been a length or more if Hector wanted to.

Ralph Beckett's yard is in tremendous form has already notched in a couple of winners at the Glorious Goodwood festival so I'm expecting a big run from their progressive sprinter.

Horse Racing Tips
Orbaan
Goodwood - 3:00 pm

16/1 EW @ Bet365

Tanager
Goodwood - 4:45 pm

10/1 EW @ Bet365

Socialite
Goodwood - 2:25 pm

15/2 EW @ Bet365

Starlust
Goodwood - 3:35 pm

8/1 EW @ Bet365

47 Comments
  1. Avatar of ross walker
    foxwalker 4 months ago

    Roll your notes up n smoke them, you’re likely to get a bigger hit than following their tips 🤣

    4
    • Avatar of Darren Sawyer
      dazzman1979 4 months ago

      Think Elvis been following the thread a good 13 years now ask him if the long game has paid off yet 😂

      3
    • Avatar of Darren Sawyer
      dazzman1979 4 months ago

      Non runners are winners 😂

      3
  2. Avatar of Elvis Parsley
    elvis parsley 4 months ago

    Only one winner long term and that’s the bookies satchels.

    Worries me that today’s best bets/nap etc above here are 15-2, 8-1, 10-1 and 16-1.

    Odds like that are great if you are on a roll and ahead of the bookies, maybe an element of loss chasing ?

    Conversely the lucky 15 which I look at as a fun bet are priced at 9-4, 11-4, 100-30, 4-1.
    Surely if you are looking for a nap/nb to follow the odds in the lucky 15 are what most would be more comfortable with ??

    all I suggest is don’t follow anyone blindly, read the comments from the tipsters above and I include hibee and DC in that as they show through their posts and in depth reasoning that they have done their homework as rizzell and cairnzy do daily.

    Look at other sites too and get an overall consensus
    Then decide for yourselves .
    Just today I trawled 5 or 6 sites I look at for reasoning for the Nassau stakes and got convincing reasoning for 5 of the 9 strong field.

    Betting for a need to make money will lead people on the pathway to cardboard city.

    Keep it fun and affordable and enjoy the banter and then join me and dazzman as our tips flop miserably on most occasions but rejoice as once every so often we return to counter to collect from those nasty bookies

    14
    • Avatar of chris johns
      hibee1 4 months ago

      Can I just make it clear nothing I share on here is a tip. I’m a racing punter, not a racing tipster. Reason I share the odd bet is purely just to try help, more so new punters who might not know what to look into when researching a bet so it can help them see what things to look into for themselves. Also my stats are there to just highlight yards in form for example or just general basic stats that can help them with their own bets. I actually find writing down my own reasoning for my bet gives me a bit of clarification so its actually helpful for me as well. I’m a part time punter compared to most, I average 4 bets a week. I’d get sacked within a week if I was to take up a horse racing tipster job for not having enough bets.

      16
  3. Avatar of Elvis Parsley
    elvis parsley 4 months ago

    Whacker clan 6-00 Galway
    7-4 top 5 finish SKYBET (single)
    12-1 ew 5 places bet365.

    Got to take fitness on trust but a repeat of his Kim Muir 3rd at Cheltenham will suffice

    3
  4. Avatar of chris johns
    hibee1 4 months ago

    Quickly share my possible bet today… Northern Ticker 2.45 Newcastle.
    Haven’t backed this yet, possibly being a bit greedy but I want at least 9/2 or I’m not getting involved. I’m expecting the money to come for the favourite so it could happen. Favourite has all the stats in favour, trainer does very well here, form from run behind Scatter Penny has been franked with that one going in again in a better race next run. His sire has produced some very good AW performers as well.
    Northern Tickers trainer has one of the best level stakes profit in the UK when sending only one runner to a meeting. I’ll have mentioned this on here before as its something I have a fair few winners from. Just this last 7 days you’d have had 12/1 and 22/1 winners following this trend.
    Really smart debut. Yard had expected him to run green, no money for him in the betting either.
    Slowly out the stalls then hampered by another runner. Ended up only beaten just under 2 lengths by a horse that was deemed good enough to run in a group 2 next run , going off at 5/1 ( although he finished 8 lengths last). Northern Ticker was given an easy time, jockey wasn’t hard on him. He could easily have got closer but he was looked after. Will come on for that experience.
    Yard in very good form, 3 of that 4 runners have been winners.
    Owners won the Heritage handicap last Saturday at Ascot with Northern Express.
    This is the first 2 year old runner for the yard on the AW this season. 5 from 30 with 2 year olds on turf this season so far.
    Course stats for yard aren’t in favour especially compared to the short priced favourite.
    The favourite has a penalty to deal with today so Northern Ticker is in receipt of 5lb so could well go close today.
    Only interested if the odds drift and it will be a half stake as its not a confident bet, stats are against it, betting on 2 year olds is always risky. But there’s plenty of positives especially the trend of Michael Dods sending the one runner to a meeting.

    17
    • Avatar of Neil Greer
      cobretti 4 months ago

      Can’t see Northern Ticker going anywhere near 9/2 unfortunately, I see a few have tipped it elsewhere, it could go off favourite come 2.45

      1
    • Avatar of Sean Hogarth
      hoggie93 4 months ago

      Class again hibee1 👏 great write up and great result again!

      7
    • Avatar of chris johns
      hibee1 4 months ago

      Corbretti..I knew what I was doing putting those odds down. You’d be surprised who reads sites like this. ;)

      Thanks Hoggie well done yourself if you were on.

      4
  5. Avatar of chris johns
    hibee1 4 months ago

    Just want to say the negative minded comments you’ll read on places like this claiming no one makes a profit from betting on racing are just coming from their own experience. How can anyone know someone else’s experience? Lol Its just a belief they have.
    It is absolutely possible to make a profit. Try how I bet, 4 or 5 bets a week, be extremely selective, have your possible bets picked out days in advance , don’t wait for the so called tipsters to influence you, price the race up yourself so that you know what will be value to you, bet level stakes with maybe extra confident bets slightly more. If you say bet only on 3/1 bets only, you’d need only 2 a week to be in profit , even 1 winner would only make you 1 point down. It is so easy to make a profit. The reason 99.9 % of punters lose is greed, impatience and addiction. If your betting every day and backing a handful of horse you have no chance.
    But at the end of the day it doesn’t matter, more and more people seem to be realising money , no matter how much you have, will never make you happy, a thought will tell you otherwise though lol

    9
    • Avatar of Darren Sawyer
      dazzman1979 4 months ago

      Well they are currently doing 8 bets a day on here so by your reasoning we are screwed if we follow 😂

      1
  6. Avatar of Darren Sawyer
    dazzman1979 4 months ago

    3:35 goodwood – desperate hero 10/1 on the nose nap of the whole meeting

    1
  7. Avatar of Double carpet
    double carpet 4 months ago

    I’ve only backed 1 horse so far at Galway as I’ve decided I’m going to wait until post time and just watch the market for anything being backed as its just too difficult to try work out as there’s so many plots.
    The 1 horse I’ve backed is Man O Work in the 5.00.
    He won a listed hurdle last Sept and went up 7lbs for that win. Lto he was never put into the race and has been dropped a pound. A 7lb claimer has also been jocked up so he’s now technically running off a lower mark than when winning that listed race.
    Currently 18/1 5 places with b365 on offer.
    The fav will be popular as he’s trained by Ross O Sullivan who is 3-3 so far this week at Galway.
    Goodwood can kiss my ass but I will back Albasheer in the Stewards Cup tomorrow.

    BOL

    1
  8. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 4 months ago

    zarica 10.45 france

  9. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 4 months ago

    living the dream 3.35 ew

    1
  10. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 4 months ago

    clampenborg 11.15 ew well done all winners yesterday

    2
  11. Avatar of Super Wilf
    Super Wilf 4 months ago

    1.50 Super Superjack Bet 365 Super boost evens top 8 finish

    🤔

    • Avatar of Super Wilf
      Super Wilf 4 months ago

      🙈

      10th

      Sorry

  12. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 4 months ago

    🙈

    10th

    Sorry

    2
  13. Avatar of Recoba
    recoba 4 months ago

    With the swing at the weights and half furlong + less than his last run I was going to back ‘Big Evs’ 9/4 BUT and it’s a big BUTT it should be tight as a crabs ar$e.l

    Anywho…Skybet offering “EVS” on Big Evs to place TOP 4 out of 9 runners?? 🤔

    Surely cant run worse than last outing when fading in only his 2nd race back at a course that’s a lot better suited for him so…

    🇬🇧
    Goodwood – 3.35…Big Evs Top 4 finish EVS Skybet *****

    EVS all over the shop he best just be at least 4th in the queue

    GL rest of the day folk!

    5
  14. Avatar of Neil Greer
    cobretti 4 months ago

    Wow, that looks an unreal boost for Big EVs to place, from 1/5 to 1/1, it’s even allowing me a max of £75
    Cheers Recoba 🤞

    1
    • Avatar of Recoba
      recoba 4 months ago

      It does seem very generous Cobretti and i didn’t check the max bet I just know I was allowed and went a touch high myself tbh as it’s usually £10 -20 max 🤞

      2
    • Avatar of Recoba
      recoba 4 months ago

      Do us Cobretti Sir 🫡

      1
  15. Avatar of Recoba
    recoba 4 months ago

    Aye Big EVENS… should spanked the 9/4! 😂
    Big Evs near went off at EVS and that was crazy generous from Skybet but fair play to them and sane time….f@ck em!! 😉

    2x £53 = 🤔

    Not best way to get but that was close to “a bet to nothing “ is it folk say you get there imo

    🇺🇸
    Be off to try retain ‘The Breeders Cup turf sprint’ next now surely?

  16. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 4 months ago

    crown board 4.10 ew tenager 4.45 ew

  17. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 4 months ago

    wafei 5.20 nap

  18. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 4 months ago

    walnut beach 5.00 ew NB well done all winners today

  19. Avatar of Elvis Parsley
    elvis parsley 4 months ago

    Mick Appleby top of the Goodwood trainers table, great to see what I used to refer to him as a journeyman trainer making hay against the big name money backed stables.
    Was a time when he was known in my bookies as someone who used to get low grade winners on the South well sand and that’s it.

    Goes to prove there is talent in these small stables if only owners had more faith in them.

    Well spotted recoba with EVENS for big EVs top 4.
    A scandalous price really and it’s rare bookies make fundamental errors like that.

    My only pick so far whacker clan has dropped from 12-1 last night to a best 13-2 now.
    A bit short now really given it’s a dartboard race but hopefully places top 5 or better for me.

    1
  20. Avatar of theplug
    theplug 4 months ago

    Galway 6.00
    The Gradual Slope 22/1 ew 6 places

    2
    • Avatar of theplug
      theplug 4 months ago

      the gradual slope 😒

      1
  21. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 4 months ago

    run for harry 5.00 mafnood 5.20 nakatomi 5.30 arrycan 6.00 had a ew lucky 15 while racing is on itv x big odds other wise not worth doing one well done all winners today

    1
  22. Avatar of theplug
    theplug 4 months ago

    Backed the Fav in the first at Galway

    1
    • Avatar of albert rose
      azzthewigan 4 months ago

      well done theplug

    • Avatar of theplug
      theplug 4 months ago

      What a ride by K Donoghue

      1
  23. Avatar of Recoba
    recoba 4 months ago

    🇺🇸
    Deleware -Race1…Estillo Magico 6/5
    Race 2…Mexican Sugar 13/8 ***
    Saratoga -Race 7…Maggie T 5/2 **+
    Race 9…Army Officer 4/1 **** Skybet

    Rest Bet365

    • Avatar of Recoba
      recoba 4 months ago

      Etillo Magico is NR. ⬆️ 👎

  24. Avatar of theplug
    theplug 4 months ago

    Thanks Azz thought he was cooked round the bend

  25. Avatar of theplug
    theplug 4 months ago

    Galway 6.00
    Moonovercloon 13/2

  26. Avatar of Double carpet
    double carpet 4 months ago

    That’s now 4 winners from 4 runners for Ross O Sullivan. That’s a brilliant return at any meeting, but to do something like that at Galway is incredible 👏
    Fair play to him.
    He has 1 runner tomorrow and 1 runner Sunday..

    I’ll try Whacker Clen but ew in the 6.00 even though the price has crashed.
    HDB has won 4 of the last 10 so let’s hope its 5 from 11 at about 6.10

    1
  27. Avatar of theplug
    theplug 4 months ago

    Moon done on the line😒

  28. Avatar of Wildhorse
    Wildhorse 4 months ago

    Hi

    Sorry , yesterday no time

    Galway — Final Weekend

    R . 4 – Brazil ( Ew ) — Falcon Eight ( placed )

    R . 5 – Andromeda ( Win )

    R . 6 – Positive Energy ( Ew ) — Apollo Prince ( placed )

    R . 7 – Taipan ( Ew )

    R . 8 – Pachmena ( Ew )

    BOL , See you tomorrow & Happy weekend !!!

    This one of the best Free bet Thread on the Web : – )

    Follow the right Guys very easy *_*

    1
  29. Avatar of Darren Sawyer
    dazzman1979 4 months ago

    The jockey on power of twins at bath needs shooting !! I needed that for a 4 fold why ease off just before the line to get collared !!! He had the race won keep going until you hit the line it did nt look like he was trying to fix it just a very bad decision !!

    0
  30. Avatar of Peter McFadden
    kf 4 months ago

    Wow, eight selections between the two tipsters and one winner, Big Evs

    0
    • Avatar of Darren Sawyer
      dazzman1979 4 months ago

      Yeah they had a good day for them 😂

  31. Avatar of Recoba
    recoba 4 months ago

    🇺🇸/ 🇨🇦

    Woodbine -Race 7. .. Franks Art 9/2 Paddy Power ***

    • Avatar of Recoba
      recoba 4 months ago

      Saratoga Race 7…Maggi T 9/4 ***.

      Thought i posted this when 11/4

      1

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