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It was a horrible day on Wednesday, with all selections running considerably under par. Overall, punters were hammered at Punchestown, with most of the favourites being turned over, most notably Galopin Des Champs, who was sent off as a 1/2 favourite to win the Punchestown Gold Cup.
I'd like to apologise in advance for the late post. A few things came up, and I haven't had as much time as I would have liked to study tomorrow's card.
I've only the two selections for Thursday, which come from Punchestown and Ayr. I'm hoping for a turn of fortune from the Punchestown festival, as it hasn't been kind to me the past two days.
Rose Donnelly 5/2 – Ayr 3:27
The Hugo Palmer yard is in decent nick at present, and his unexposed filly Rose Donnelly stood out to me as a decent play in this race.
She makes her handicap debut run off a workable mark and, as previously mentioned, is much less exposed than the rest of the field.
She has run three times on the AW so far in her career and ran with credit in each of those outings. She finished mid-pack on on her first two runs before connections stepped her up 2f in trip, which saw her finish an improved fourth last time out at Kempton.
She was second behind the leader as they went for home and travelled not too badly up to about the 2f pole before fading into fourth place. Connections have dropped her back a furlong to 1m2, which looks a good move given that she faded around a furlong or so from home.
The second that day has since gone on to win, while the eventual winner was soundly beaten on his next outing. The winner was beaten by a decent-looking sort from the Andrew Balding yard and was upped in distance on testing ground, so I'm not looking too much into that performance.
Midnight Lion would be a danger if putting a poor run at Newcastle behind him. His most recent success came over 1m2f, and he still looks on a fair mark to make his presence felt.
Home By The Lee 6/1 – Punchestown 6:00
Current market favourite Teahuppo will be the banker in most punters' eyes for Thursday's racing at Punchestown. There is no doubt that he's the best-staying hurdler in the business at present, but I simply can't have him at 5/6, given the forecast ground.
His best form comes on soft ground, and although some rain is forecast for Punchestown on Thursday, I don't think there will be enough for the ground conditions to change in his favour.
For the reason I've mentioned above, I'm more than happy to take to him on with Home By the Lee who looks a solid alternative. Home By The Lee is versatile ground-wise and although he was unable to get on terms with Teahupoo when the pair met at Cheltenham (Beaten by 6L) I think there is every chance he can get a lot closer on this forecast ground.
It may have been about a year and a half ago over 2m4 rather than the 2m7 he runs over tomorrow, but I thought Home By The Lees victory at Naas was a nice piece of form to take into this contest.
He beat Bob Olinger, who finished second that day by two lengths, and the pair were roughly 12L clear of Ashdale Bob and Flooring Porter. To beat Flooring Porter by that sort of margin is impressive as he too was previously one of the best staying hurdlers in the country.
Chantilly ??
4-13 will Scarlett 6-4
6-33 fang 2-1.
Fang is one of my go to horses over the pond.
Has won group 3 races the last 2 years, this is listed.
Not run since October but has won first time out after longer breaks the last 2 years so goes well fresh.
Blood destiny 4-15 punchestown 2-1.
Spillane’s tower gave this a form boost by winning here on Monday.
Spillane’s tower and blood destiny had beat each other previously ?
Blood destiny absolutely shocking ☹️
Late start today so thought I’d try help out with some pointers/stats while I have time.
Spanish Star 3.15 Goodwood tomorrow. Top 3 finish 11/8.
Yard clearly have had this race planned. He won this last year after making his seasonal reappearance at Newbury. This season they ran him in the exact same handicap at Newbury so as soon as I saw this I knew he’d be coming back for this. He’s a bit of a Goodwood specialist, he’s had 14 runs here. Form figures read….4 ,4, 2, 1,3, 1, 3, 7, 1, 1, 7, 3, 6. 4 wins from 13 here. He will likely have the exact same ground as last years race.
His run 2 weeks ago was very eye-catching. Finished 4th , beaten only a length.
This is definitely a horse that needs knowing and they have David Probert on who has ridden him on 5 of his runs at Goodwood, winning 2 of them.
Yard have a healthy 19 % strike rate at the track over the last 5 seasons. They don’t have too many runners here.
9-2 is available this morning still for the win. Reason I’ve played things a little safe is he does need producing as late as possible so can be a little bit of tricky ride.
Would be shocked if this isn’t shortened up today/ overnight.
I head down to Chelmsford this afternoon. I’m on Sean Woods runner Laoisman at 13/8. Travelled really nicely in his last run. Gelding operation in the winter was a big success. Form has been franked from his last run with 3rd and 5th winning. Yard have a 25% strike rate this season with their older horses on the AW. Yard is 2 wins from their last 5. Should take all the beating. Was still plenty 11/8 with the bookmakers earlier. Should take all beating running off 3 lb higher.
No idea if or when I’ll next be on so take it easy everyone.
Can’t wait ?
Utter crap yesterday. Let’s Go Champ got me outta jail to some extent but Better Days Ahead clearly didn’t stay the 3m even though he’s bred to do so and was a big disappointment.
I also said I thought GDC could be vulnerable on the better ground and so it turned out, but did I back Fastorslow? Of course I didn’t!!!
Anyway onto today and some very tough h’caps and some races that should be straightforward.
3.40
Only 12lbs separate the 24 runners on ratings so it’s a very difficult race to work out. But if getting in from 2nd reserve I might have a go on Grappa Nonino for Dermot Weld who will be right at the bottom of the weights.
Currently around 33/1
4.15 Blood Destiny should take this. He’s a very good jumper and 2m is his trip. Grade 1 horse running in a h’cap
6.00
Teahupoo should win. I was going to consider having an ew on Lantry Lady yesterday, she was 20/1 but forgot to back her. Now she’s 10s !!!
Very annoying but my own fault. I’ll see if she drifts back out a couple of points then I might have a go.
6.35 Della Casa Lunga 22/1 ew 6 places
Another clusterphuck of a race but gone for this UK raider who has won his last 2 but could still be well h”capped as he was given a mark of 131 for his first run in the UK having finished 2nd to Sandor Clegane (rated 145) here last year only beaten 1 3/4L
7.05 Spindleberry should win this. He has by far the best form in the race having run Jade De Grugy to 2 1/2L lto.
One horse at a big price though is Mayor’s Walk who is better than she showed lto as a big mistake cost her and could hit the frame
Currently 28/1
BOL
D C looks like the money is still coming for Lantry Lady
After Harsh winning the first race yesterday I new I was in for a bad day .?
Home By The Lee 8/1 ew he is drifting in the betting.
Jj slevin is having a great festival so far winning the two big ones and I think he could cause an upset in the stayers today .they always thought highly of this lad .ran very well at Cheltenham .
Will Scarlett non runner in France ??.
Replace with karatka 12-42 Dieppe.
Won a group 3 hurdle last year and makes chase debut in a class 4 today, if he jumps he should win ?
Odds 6-4 @hills
Punchestown opener
3.40 Nara 6/1 ran a very good race in the Boodles at Cheltenham festival considering he was at the back most of the way round and was interfered with with the fallers. He did very well to finish 7th .Hopefully he will get the job done today.
global humour 2.50 well done all winners yesterday
52
Wedgewood 3.05
king of the jungle 3.17
hands on 3.40 ew
timeless piece 3.40 ew
gua du large 4.15 ew
tafsir 4.35 nap
magical drago 4.40 nb
dragon
koko beach 4.50 surprised if this horse gets beat
yup bowt reet got beat
mount frisko 5.25 backed outsider of lot way things are going you never now
whatcouldofbeen 6.00 ew
Jeez, slow down azz, I can’t keep up lol ?
pmsl yup I’m going to throw darts at um after this 6.0.clock race elvis
I’ve come to the conclusion there’s no point looking at form for punchestown.
Most horses are primed for Cheltenham and seem to have left their form there.
I think you can draw a line through whatever happens here form wise, one race too many for the better horses ☹️
Think your spot on with your assessment ther Elvis
Elvis I think you have to take into consideration of the far better ground most Irish horses love the Irish soft/heavy ground but some have been crying out for better ground and they are now getting it.
Coko beach & Gaelic Warrior defo want it softer. If they dont get rain youl see more surprises with the short 1s tomorrow & Sat
solar Bentley 6.15 coming up easy 6.35 me wee Bonnie lass 7.05;samyr 7.40
lucky 15 dart throw
One for yous all tomorrow at punchestown 4-15
Toss Again 16/1 ew