Racing tips: The weight penalty won’t be enough to stop Sprewell

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Champions Day was a total joke from start to finish. If you weren't on a horse who was on the pace or close to it, you had no chance of winning for the most part. Front runners were in their element at Ascot yesterday and trying to close the gap when they got an easy lead was near to impossible. 

Leopardstown 2:10 – Cairo 5/4 (2pt PaddyPower)

With Ryan Moore riding in France for Sunday, it puts good ol' Seamie Heffernan as the main man for the Aidan O'Brien string at Leopardstown and he finds himself on a very good chance with Cairo.

Cairo hasn't been seen much this year with two runs happening before the official flat season started, with his only run of the year coming in the Irish 2000 Guineas which saw him finish 2nd to Paddington. That form is by far the best in this race, so I think his fitness and well-being is worth taking a chance on, as even though he has clearly had problems this year, if he is right then he's the best horse in this race.

I thought he ran a huge race to finish 2nd in that race at the Curragh as that was he looked more at home on soft ground when landing a Group 3 last October over 7f. He was staying on nicely in the Guineas and I think good ground didn't help him at all, he probably found it all going a bit too quick for him, but with the ground being heavy today I think he can come back with a win.

Leopardstown 3:20 – Sprewell 11/4 (2pt PaddyPower)

Carrying a penalty will make this task much tougher for Sprewell, but in a race which looks very poor he should be able to pull it off with ground conditions to suit.

This horse has the class to win races like this, he was 4th in the Derby at Epsom earlier this season over 2f too far and on ground far too fast for him, which shows the level of horse we're dealing with. On soft or heavy ground this horse is 2/2 this season and was decent on that surface as a juvenile 12 months ago, but he has clearly improved a lot since his 2yo season. He won a Group 3 in May on soft/heavy ground by 3L, recording an RPR of 116 which is head and shoulders above the level of form this field has shown, so if he's anywhere near that level of form he will be bang there despite carrying more weight than ideal.

His peak RPR came over C&D in the Derby Trial, so he clearly has a liking for this place and I like the fact he normally sits close to the pace as we saw yesterday at Ascot on testing ground you don't want to be miles away from those who lead the dance.

3yo's have won 8 of the last 10 renewals of this race and Sprewell is definitely the pick of that bunch.

Saint-Cloud 1:33 – Navy Seal 5/1 (1pt)

Giving up on an Aidan O'Brien horse is not the best thing to do, so even after a sub-par performance by Navy Seal I think he deserves another shot.

Aidan said they were disappointed with his run at the Curragh and believe it wasn't it true showing. Obviously, trainers come out and say what you want to hear, but I think there is an element of truth to that, this horse is fantastically bred, being by Dubawi and out of a Camelot mare, he is meant to be much better than what we've seen so far. I think testing ground is the key to this horse and I think Ryan Moore might want to get the lead in this race from Stall 1, point-and-shoot style.

This horse is a full brother to Never Ending Story who was a decent juvenile, and was 3rd in a Group 1 last October and was 2nd in a Group 1 this year as 3yo. With this type of pedigree I think he'll stay a couple of furlongs further next year, so Ryan might want to turn this into a stamina test if he does decide to go from the front, I doubt he'll want this turning into a usual French dawdle and sprint for home, as that simply won't suit. The French horses seem to have all the cards for this, but the form of their races is far from bulletproof, I'd say Sunway is a big danger but I'm not sure he wants a mile and though the form has worked out nicely from his York 2nd, I think a few underperformed in that race so it can't be trusted, and the winner was rubbish nto.

Saint-Cloud 2:50 – American Flag 12/1 (0.5pt EW)

I put up American Flag very early into the season and thought he didn't manage to win, he wasn't given the best of rides that day being held up miles from off the pace and given mission impossible. He hasn't been great since, but he has been racing over further and on drier ground, so with soft ground back in his favour he deserves another shot.

His run last time out saw him return to racing after a break of 118 days so chances are that he wasn't ready to do himself justice and it was to get a prep run into him and get his fitness up. Though he is a strong stayer over a mile, I don't think 10f is what he wants at this moment in his career and his run before last would suggest that. This horse is very good when getting very soft conditions over a mile, and that is what he gets today, he was 2/3 with those conditions this year and like I mentioned before, he didn't get a great ride in the Group 1.

The odds are more than generous in my opinion and he is very dangerous to underestimate.

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