Racing tips: New Endeavour is the dark horse at Newmarket on Thursday

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Wednesday was a decent day with a 2/1 winner with Zarinsk and money back as Motazzen was placed at Kempton.

Zarinsk was given a great ride by Colin Keane, but credit to the horse for breaking out of the gates like a bullet from a gun. As soon as she broke the way she did and Colin grabbed the rail, I knew the race was done. I cannot understand for the life of me why the Joseph O'Brien horse was being smashed in, she was a horrible price and back to 7f I thought she had no chance of reversing the form with Zarinsk.

Newmarket 1:50 – Land Legend 14/1 (0.5pt EW WilliamHill)

This is a muddling race, and by that I mean the pace of the race looks uncertain. Not one horse in the race is an out-and-out front runner, which isn't ideal in a small field Group race, as it will get tricky and unless one of them grabs the bull by the horns, this could turn into a bit of a sprint. So, I'm going to be having a play on one of the bigger outsiders of the bunch in Land Legend.

This horse has tended to be held up from off the pace, which isn't going to be ideal if the pace does become a crawl and turns into a sprint, but I'm hoping that they realise this and have him closer to the pace like they did last year with last year's winner of this race for the same trainer and owner combination, Deauville Legend. That horse took the exact same path as Land Legend has done this year, as they both ran in the King George V Stakes handicap at Royal Ascot which is over 12f and saw Land Legend finish 7th/19, and Deauville Legend finished 2nd in that race last year. 7th/19 doesn't tell the full story, and I think he was mightily unlucky not to challenge for the win. He broke out of the stalls the slowest out of the field, which saw Hollie Doyle settle for the last spot in the race, and that was the position he was in till turning for home, where he was still on the bridle when the vast majority of the field wasn't, he picked up well and went past plenty of horses, went for a run up the rail but was blocked in running by his stablemate, which halted his progress and meant his momentum was stopped, and then he ran on strongly again at the finish to grab 7th.

His handicap from the Royal Ascot run didn't change and remains 89, so it makes you question why are they going for this Group 3 race when there is probably at least a couple of decent handicaps which could be won before they had to go into Group company. I think the answer is that they are confident of him running a big race, they did the same last year with Deauville Legend who was running off 95 and managed to win this before going on to finish 4th in the Melbourne Cup and winning the Group 2 Great Voltigeur.

I think at 14/1 he is definitely worth a punt.

Newmarket 4:45 – New Endeavour 9/1 (1pt EW PaddyPower)

This race is pretty much all about Nostrum and whether he has retained his ability from 2 to 3, and whether he is fit enough to win a race like this. Personally, at the odds, I think you've got to take him on and I'm trying to stay away from the Guineas form, as I don't think it looks particularly great and I've gone for New Endeavour who has looked like a Class 1 horse on his last two starts, and now it is his time to test the waters.

I don't think this is as strong as a race as what it looks, especially is Nostrum underperforms as you're then left with a 108-rated horse, 103 (my selection) and a couple of 90-rated horses, so the fact I've decided to go for the handicapper to improve into a Class 1 horse doesn't seem to be mission impossible, especially considering how he has run the last two times. I thought his run at Kempton was a very smart effort, winning by 4L, stretching well clear of the field that day, and recording an RPR of 100. I ignored him for the Royal Ascot race he was then tried in, which saw him finish 2nd/29 and I think the front two that day were head and shoulders better than the field that day, they were both drawn on opposite sides of the track, both pulled miles clear of anything on their side and had to do the donkey work for a long way, and that run screamed out to me that New Endeavour is a Class 1 horse. That run produced an RPR of 108, and though the form of the third might dampen my enthusiasm, I couldn't care less as sometimes you've got to go with what your eyes are telling you, and I thought the front two that day were very impressive.

In my opinion, he is progressing very quickly, so you can ignore his runs prior to the last two as he's come on leaps and bounds. David Egan doesn't like his chances as he has picked his stablemate who is 2/2, but that doesn't bother me as he's not my favourite jockey anyway and I'd much rather have Tom Marquand on board, plus I think Egan's ride is much shorter than he should be considering he was scrambling to win as an odds-on shot last time out.

The rain and watered ground should mean that the ground will hopefully be good to soft all over, and that should be fine for New Endeavour with soft ground horses in the pedigree.

It's a shame there are only 2 places on offer, but I'll still be playing him EW.

Newmarket 17:20 – Bodorgan 7/2 (2pt Bet365/WilliamHill)

It doesn't surprise me to see Bodorgan be the market favourite as it's a Charlie Hills trained runner ridden by Ryan Moore, and whenever Ryan is onboard one of Charlie's horses he has a good SR and is a profitable combination.

I'm not going to lie, I was hoping people wouldn't have latched onto this horse as he has finished 5th/11 and 7th/12 on his last two starts, but the booking of Ryan Moore has clearly got people backing this horse. I think the watered ground and bit of rain which is due to fall at Newmarket is crucial to this horse's chance of winning. His best runs have come on ground with juice in it when this horse was a 2yo, and both came at Newmarket, albeit the Rowley course. He was 3rd/10 and 1st/13 on good to soft ground as a juvenile, and this year he has been racing on good to firm, which doesn't look to be his cup of tea, even though he has run to a decent level.

Ryan Moore has ridden 25 winners for Charlie Hills from 111 runners, which is a 23% SR, and has produced a profit of +21.00 to £1 level stakes.

This race doesn't look particularly strong, and I think 7/2 is a tad shorter than I was hoping for, is still worth a bet.

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