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Not going to dwell on the recent form too much as it's fairly obvious. The last week hasn't been great and I felt confident going into yesterday. Should've come out with at least one winner with Beat The Edge who clattered the second from home when cruising and Lone Star was probably a tad unlucky bumping into a well-handicapped horse.
The other two were completely awful. Looked like Adam Wedge was a non-trier on Lipa K, which was always going to be the risk on an Evan Williams horse, and Milan Bridge looks terrible over fences, didn't travel a yard.
Ludlow 1:55 – Great Ocean 15/2 (1pt win)
I expect this one to go one of two ways, either winning or be pulled up, but I'm banking on the quicker ground and drop in trip to help out GREAT OCEAN.
I thought he jumped well enough on his chase debut at Worcester and was in contention of winning when turning for home and jumping the last few fences until he got tired over 2m 4f. The way he travelled through the race looked like he would enjoy a drop back in trip, as he was a winner over hurdles over 2m last year. I think you've got to forgive him for his run at Fontwell last time out. He jumped into the back of a horse and that stopped his momentum and probably knocked his confidence. The leading two got away from him that day when he was pushed along to get closer back in third, but then it looked like he got tired again and was eventually passed and finished fourth. With good ground and dropping in trip, stamina shouldn't be an issue and I'm hoping he can go back to his Worcester run where he jumped nicely and travelled nicely into the race.
The form of the Worcester race has worked out well with the winner and fifth-placed horse going on to win next time out, plus the horse back in sixth won on his latest start.
Ludlow 3:00 – Jobesgreen Lad 11/4 (1pt win)
JOBESGREEN LAD will have to prove he is capable of running in this much better race, but he is a progressive chaser who is a smooth traveller and is worth a chance upped in grade.
Tom George's 8yo has been a revelation over fences compared to when running over hurdles. He has racked up four wins from his eight efforts over fences with a further two more placed efforts. His first win came off a mark of 89 and he won in good style off a mark of 105 last time around. The handicapper hasn't taken any chances with giving him an 8lb rise but you've got to say he is worth a shot in a race of this nature. His jumping can often be sticky, so he'll have to cut that out if he wants to win this, but he likes decent ground and is 2/2 at Ludlow, so it's a track that clearly plays to his strengths.
Running from bottom weight will help his chances, and you'd have to say that the horses above him in the handicap look in the grips of the handicapper or might want further/different ground, so it looks like a race crying out for an improver to come and win.
Southwell 2:05 – Gabriel's Getaway 7/2 (2pt win)
I expect GABRIEL'S GETAWAY to be a non-runner in this race considering he only raced yesterday, but if he does turn up then I think he could take the world of beating.
He made a very good impression at Taunton yesterday on his chase debut. He didn't put a foot wrong, jumped brilliantly, travelled like a well-handicapped horse, and won with plenty in hand. If they do race him then he's clearly not feeling the effects of the race 24 hours ago but also they think he'll get a bigger rise in the weights than the 7lb penalty he'll be carrying today, so will want to take full advantage of it and get a second quick win in before his new mark kicks in.
His race yesterday wasn't great and I don't think he beat much, but this race is definitely winnable and I think the favourite doesn't jump well enough to be the price he is. This is 2f shorter than his race at Taunton as well, but as I eluded to, he travelled strongly and jumps efficiently enough to cope with this drop back in trip.
Southwell 3:40 – Chosen Port 3/1 (1pt win)
Novice races aren't my biggest fancy but I think CHOSEN PORT deserves a shot in this after running well at Leicester last time out before she fell.
She was making her comeback run after 300+ days off the track but ran with plenty of enthusiasm and looked to have many of those in behind in trouble. She did get tired late on and that resulted in her taking a fall, but I think you have to take the positives of that performance rather than the final furlong or so. She is a horse who clearly has ability but it's yet to fully click into place. She ran some good races in bumpers, including one at this track where she was placed, and with the form of Olly Murphy's yard going as good as it is at the moment she is worth a chance against the short-priced favourite who is carrying a penalty.
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Belmont-R4….Masura 11/2. Livrscore Bet 🙄
.Been very close last 2 runs and after a narrow defeat coming from last on the bend after missing the break was surprisingly stepped up in class only to fail by almost the same margin. Slight ease in grade and less weight for some reason,think connections just wanting to get a first win after 5 and at 11/2 hopefully not burned a 3rd time here!
Bet365 go 6/4 3 places BUT I’ve used my daily limit and withdrew USA doh so stuck with this mob I rarely use
🇦🇺 Favs double pays 1.6/1. Livescore Bet.
Warwick Farm -R2….Perielle
Eagle Farm -R4…Sha Of Gomer.
Till tomorrow folk! 🍀 🐎
Double bust by horse that went off 2/7 but main bet Masura gets his win 🥇
Yahtzee !! 🎲 🇦🇺
🇺🇸 – 🇦🇺 🇭🇰 🇬🇧 🇫🇷- 🇺🇸
NRs and abandoned meetings have wrecked my UK bets bar a single on Cairnzy’s Book of Secrets I’m giving it a miss and don’t fancy Fairyhouse at all so been looking to France with some decent jumps at Páu .
Day off and It’s is on Sky Racing too so it’s feet up and stay out that weather for me!
Páu Yankee…
12.30…Ultra Marino EVS
1.12…Great De Large. 4/1
1.47…Imoun Jersey 7/2
2.57…Lelinoust 7/2
*Warning these are researched but French jumps it ain’t my FORTÉ! 😉
🇭🇰 Got a Trixie on at Happy Valley too as it’s on in between French racing. Its just Tim Carrols of ATRs Nap and Nb along with Foxhunter in the first
GL all and be USA again later so some heavy globetrotting today, let’s see if it pays!
🇺🇸 – 🇦🇺… 🇭🇰 🇬🇧 🇫🇷- 🇺🇸 😊 👌
Everytip.co.uk has those 4 french tips up today recoba.
Hopefully for you great minds and 4 winners, to be honest I’ve not come across a lot of these horses before.
British racing is shit today isn’t it ☹️
They NAP Molly Weasley at Marseille (race 4), looks good but it’s odds on and odds on prices no good for betting purposes, if it was 11-8 or better maybe worth an investment
Miss antipova 4-40 southwell.
18-1 ew extra 5 places.
Not run for ages and drifting like a barge but would have a chance on old form if fit
Sedge wren 3-40 southwell 5-2.
Won last time despite jumping markedly out to the left, going left handed today could help alleviate his penalty for that victory
cheers elvis always 100 per cent to bring up the goods
Lol azz, cheers…
20% maybe at best but happy when others are on the ones that do win.
Think SP was 3-1 which is a bonus 👍
chris gordon 5-10 ……..
minelladestination 2.40 ew well done all winners yesterday
win shit ew price that
the Colleen 2.50 ew
Spanish John 3.50 ew well done all winners today
8:00 kempton – earl of the Cotswolds 11/1 e/w
Kempton 19:00 – top of the class 5/1
Kempton 19:00 – top of the class 5/1
Kempton 19:00 – top of the class 5/1
Ducking gremlins 😡😡
I don’t mind you stealing my tips thief ! There are plenty of likes to go around haha
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