EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Bristol Rovers vs Peterborough
Peterborough travel to Bristol Rovers at the weekend and this follow both teams’ trends for goals!
The Gas have scored an average of 1.56 goals at home with matches averaging 3.44 goals, whilst they have found the net in eight of their nine home games. Their attacking output is midtable at best, but they do have a habit of scoring goals with just three blanks all season with Ipswich and Barnsley on the road and Accrington at the Memorial Stadium shutting them out. However, they have now conceded 1.89 goals at home keeping just one home clean sheet this term and three in total.
At home it’s not great reading for their defensive metrics. An xGA of 1.24 with just 3 sides having a higher expected goals conceded rate, just two sides conceding more goals, four sides conceding more shots and three sides conceding more shots on target, its not clever, but it does means there is normally goals. Over the last four games they have an xG of 1.49 and xGA of 0.97 but only five sides have conceded more shots in the box over these four games.
Posh are now W5-D1-L2 over their last 8 games scoring an average of 2.12 goals per game, whilst both teams to score have landed in seven of these eight and over 2.5 match goals has landed in seven. Posh have some great attacking options but defensively, especially on the road they struggle to keep the ball out of their net.
On the road they have a record of W3-D0-L6 and so far across these nine games they have failed to keep a clean sheet, conceding two or more on seven occasions. Whilst their attacking output on the road is just above midtable their defensive metrics is well mor aligned to a side facing relegation. Their xGA of 1.20 sits them 14th and 2.00 goals conceded puts them 22nd.
Between these two sides, 78% of their home and away games respectively have seen both teams score and 72% have seen at least three goals. It’s a little crude but with a probability of 72% of over 2.5 goals we should see odds closer to 2/5 but we can pick up 3/4 with Unibet
We can back over 2.5 goals at 3/4 with Unibet.
Burton vs Plymouth
Plymouth let us down last week drawing 1-1 with Lincoln in a game that didn’t quite live up to expectations, but I am happy to go again with them.
The hosts have generally been poor all season despite changing manager. Dino Maamira has come in after a relatively poor spell at Oldham where he won just 28% of games and was sacked after 10 months After 12 games, they have a record of W3-D3-L6 and sit 2nd bottom. However, under Dino their games have averaged 3.00 match goals per game, scoring and conceding in 10. Over these 12 games they have been averaging just over 1.1 xG and xGA, which goes in keeping with the goals we have seen.
The Pilgrims have an away record of W4-D3-L2, but they have now conceded in seven of their nine away fixtures with an average of 1.67 goals conceded and the highest xGA in the division on the road at 1.80 per game. I have them 15th for shots conceded and 23rd for shots on target and 24th for shots in the box conceded, surprising metrics for a side top of the table. However, at the other end, Plymouth average 2.0 goals score per away fixture finding the net in all nine games. They are 5th for shots taken and no side has more shots on target in the box than they do on the road.
All in all, I think we will see both sides to score and then the game will go over 2.5 goals as Plymouth secure the win.
We can back over 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Bet365
Oxford vs Forest Green
I think it’s time to start considering that Oxford might be turning a corner and therefore worth backing. Their underlying performances have been good all season, but the results haven’t been. However, over the last eight games they have returned W3-D3-L2 with defeats coming to Peterborough and Wycombe. At home I have them 4th on xPTS, 5th on xG ratio and 3rd on shots on target ratio. This is a good side, and they are playing well even if the results haven’t been getting the results. At home they are W3-D2-L4 but against sides 14th and below at home they have gone W3-D2-L1.
Oxford have scored in eight of nine games at home with a xG of 1.37 whilst having the 5th best xGA. They are slowly getting better, and confidence must be high with an excellent win last time out with a 4-0 win over Port Vale who have adapted to life in League One well.
Forest Green are really struggling with an away record of W1-D4-L4 and are yet to keep a clean sheet on the road and only one clean sheet all season. On the road they have conceded 1.5+ goals in 55% of games with a xGA of 1.51, which is the 3rd worst in the division. Rovers’ defensive metrics are poor. 23rd for goals conceded on the road with 2.22 per game, 21st for shots on target conceded and 23rd for shots in the box conceded.
Given how bad Forest Green have been on the road I am keen to back Oxford to score at least twice here and win the game and we can back this selection at 3/4 with Bet365.
Oxford win and over 1.5 Oxford goals at 3/4 with Bet365
