Millwall v Crystal Palace, Tuesday, 7.45pm
MILLWALL take on Crystal Palace in a London derby that has serious ramifications at the top and bottom of England Championship.
The Lions lost again at the weekend and have still to secure their England Championship status. A poor run of from has saw just one win in the last eight games (five defeats and two draws) and Millwall have dropped back down the table and are just one point ahead of Barnsley in third bottom.
Millwall sit 19th and with an away tie at Derby remaining after this match boss Kenny Jackett knows a defeat to Palace could be catastrophic. He has an unchanged squad for but Andy Keogh may return to the starting 11.
Palace continue to struggle as they recorded another match without a win. It's been eight games since they grabbed all three points in a match.
The run of games has been quite easy too with only Brighton and Leicester of the teams played any good. Championship top scorer Glen Murray’s from has mirrored Palace's and he has not scored since early March.
Palace have only managed five in the last eight while conceding 16 goals. That they are still in the play-offs is testament to their excellent run prior to New Year. Crystal Palace have two games left and if they don’t win at least once their place will surely be in jeopardy. Palace will name the same squad as the weekend game at Blackburn.
VERDICT
A huge derby here and one which has an extra spice to it. There is genuine hatred between both sides and with play-off and relegation issues still undecided it could mean a lot for a win for either side. I believe a draw is the best bet and one that offers the best value.
With neither side keen to bust a gut and a point benefiting both sides going into the last game I can see a cagey local derby. The bookmakers cannot split the sides and neither can I.
Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 5/2 bet365
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
milesey,any advice for the goals market for millwall vs palace?
In South Africa each of Orlando Pirates’ last nine league home games have turned up Under 2.5 Goals and so have 9/13 Chippa United away matches.
Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.9 in Orlando Pirates v Chippa United
Milesey
( betfair )
Mileysey,,,When betting on most of the PSL matches it is prudent to always have ‘under 2.5’goals in the majority of matches.
This could be down to a couple of reasons,,,very poor pitches, not the greatest of homegrown South African talent, due to the fact that Football comes a distant second to the national game of rugby, club & international, so very little investment goes into the the ‘Beautiful Game’ in SA…..and on a little political point,,football is deemed a ‘black’ sport and rugby ‘white’
And generally the PSL is normally thought between ‘Pirates & Chiefs’ i see the platinum stars are mounting a challenge, separating the two ‘big’ clubs but I reckon the chiefs will win the PSL with maybe 1 game to spare…
Do you think both teams will score?
Homicide, Millwall-Palace is a tough call. Neither has been scoring too many goals which is why they’re in trouble. As Milesey says Palace’s top scorer Glenn Murray is suffering a drought but if I had to place on bet it might Stephen Dobbie to score for Palace as he seems to come alive at this time of the season. He’s netted in his lat two games.
IPL CRICKET – 3:30 ITV4
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Pune Warriors v Chennai Super Kings
Pune Warriors
The Warriors hit rock-bottom following defeat by the Delhi Daredevils on Sunday. It was a match they should have won. At 76 for none and 128 for two they were in control but they inexplicably stopped scoring runs. Only two more wickets were lost and they fell short by 15 runs. Earlier there had been good performances with the ball from Ashok Dinda, who claimed three wickets for 31, and Bhuvneshwar Kumar, who went for nor more than 7.50 an over. But Yuvraj Singh dropped a dolly and this was a hint of the malaise to come. Luke Wright and Yuvraj were well set and one of them should have taken his side to victory but both fell at a crucial time. It could be the time for a shake-up in the ranks. Angelo Mathews could return as skipper, handing over from Aaron Finch, while Steve Smith and Luke Wright could come under presssure from Ajantha Mendis and Wayne Parnell respectively. Marlon Samuels has returned home with a groin injury.
Chennai Super Kings
By contrast to Pune, the Super Kings have charged to the head of affairs before Monday’s matches. They have won five in a row and they looked in brutal form against the Kolkata Knight Riders. They posted 200 batting first and never really looked in danger. Well, save for when Dirk Nannes and Chris Morris were bowling. The duo were profligate, giving KKR a squeak as they actually went odds on in the chase, and this is an area which CSK may look to address. Ben Hilfenhaus and Albie Morkel could make appearances.
First-innings runs
The Subrata Roy Sahara Stadium is not the greatest for the batsmen. Here are the first-innings scores on the ground from this term and last (most recent first): 119-145-99-136-173-125-120-177-146-155-166. That is an average of 142. Indeed, if we had gone under 150 in each of those matches we would have won seven times from 11. So with odds in the offing of around 2.00 the value is clear. Of course we worry about CSK’s turbo-charged batting but it will not be easy for them to come from the good batting surface at home to something more sluggish.
Match odds
Pune are as big as 2.74 with Chennai 1.53. Of course we don’t get involved at such skinny prices about a favourite but we wouldn’t put you off a trade of the Warriors. It was only two weeks ago that Pune beat CSK, and comfortably too after posting 159. The pitch, as they say, could be a great leveller and it wouldn’t take much for the hosts to trade as favourites: a couple of early wickets for example as CSK struggle to adjust. Or, a reasonably rapid start of three or four wicketless overs. By the same token, if Chennai ever do slip out in the betting to outsider status then they are, of course, value.
Top Pune batsman
Finch, the stand-in skipper, is Pune’s top runscorer so far. He has 266 runs and top socred in the previous meeting. Next best is the classy Robin Uthappa, who opens the batting and keeps wicket. He is on 204.
Top Chennai batsman
Sub Badrinath top scored in the previous meeting but he is unlikely to feature. Mike Hussey is the man of the moment following his 95 against KKR. Wriddiham Saha opened the batting with Hussey and we expect hi to retain his place at the expense of Murali Vijay.
Recommended bet
Lay 150 or more first-innings runs at 2.00
** back under 150 first innings runs **
Milesey
( betfair )
GOLF
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THE VOLVO CHINA OPEN
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Tournament History
Now in its 19th year, the Volvo China Open is organised by the China Golf Association. It’s been co-sanctioned with the European Tour since 2004 and with the OneAsia Tour since 2009. You’ll notice that no Asian Tour players, unless qualified via the ET, are in the field. The CGA and the AT have had an acrimonious relationship ever since the OneAsia Tour was created and the AT pulled out of this event in 2009.
Venue
Binhai Lake GC, Tianjin, China
Course Details
Par 72 – 7667 yards
Stroke index in 2012 – 71.12
Designed by Schmidt-Curley Design with the help of legendry designer, Pete Dye, Binhai is a long, flat, wind-swept, links-style track with wide fairways. There are 10 waterfront holes and small, undulating greens are protected by a number of Dye’s trademark sleeper-faced bunkers.
The rough is dormant and far from penal and last year the greens were very slow, running at just 8.6 on the stimpmeter.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 6.30am on Thursday
Last Five Winners
2012 – Branden Grace -21
2011 – Nicolas Colsaerts -24
2010 – Y.E Yang -15
2009 – Scott Strange -8
2008 – Damien McGrane -10
What will it take to win the Volvo China Open?
Even though the tees were moved up on a number of holes last year, Binhai still played monstrously long and although relatively short hitters, Marcus Fraser and Francesco Molinari, finished in the top-ten, big-hitters held a significant advantage.
Winner, Branden Grace, and runner-up, Nicolas Colsaerts, worked their way clear of the field and fought out the event between themselves by round four and they ranked 5th and 1st respectfully for driving distance.
How you preformed on the par fives was key last year. Grace played the long holes in -11 and Colsaerts -10, whereas, 3rd and 4th placed finishers, Richard Finch and George Coetzee, both only managed -4.
It’s not impossible for a short-hitter to win but conceding length for 72 holes on such a long track is a major disadvantage.
Is there an angle in?
With just one staging at Binhai, it’s may be a bit early to give too much credence to any course correlations but a couple of events may offer a few clues…
Given that Grace went on to win the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last season and that Binhai is a links-style course, it makes sense to consider that event as a good guide and Ben Coley, who tips-up monster-hitter Alvaro Quiros in his excellent preview, makes a very sound case for form at the Doha GC, home of the Qatar Masters.
In-Play Tactics
There wasn’t a huge disparity between morning and afternoon scores on either of the first two days last year with the averages for the four sessions ranging between 70.71 on Thursday morning and 72.36 on Friday morning, but those that were drawn early-late enjoyed a two stroke advantage over the two days.
As it’s an exposed track, keeping an eye on the weather forecasts, and in particular the wind speeds, is a sensible tactic. At the time of writing, the forecasts suggest that those drawn late-early may get the better of it this year but that may well change before Thursday.
For in-running trading purposes, only the par 5 2nd hole played easier than the finishing hole (also a par 5) twelve months ago, but other than the 18th, the finish to Binhai is tough -holes 13,14,15,16 and 17 ranked 2nd, 5th, 9th, 7th and 3rd hardest respectfully.
Market Leaders
Favourite, Alex Noren, shot the course record of 63 on day three last year and he comes here fresh of a tied 6th finish at the Ballantine’s Championship on Sunday, so his credentials are obvious enough but he led last week’s event through 54 holes so there’s a good chance he’s mentally a bit jaded.
Of those to the fore in the market, defending champ, Branden Grace, looks the best bet. He was a comfortable winner last year (three strokes) and he impressed on his US Masters debut last time out but it’s never easy to defend a title and he’s just a shade short.
Recent Avantha Masters winner, Thomas Aiken, is currently trading as third favourite and he’ll enjoy the test. Fairly long of the tee and a good wind player, I can see him going well but he doesn’t win often enough to consider backing at just 21.0.
Selections
When I started looking at this event last week, one player stood out like a sore thumb – Paul Lawrie. Despite a disappointing opening round of 72, which left him languishing in a tie for 82nd, Lawrie managed to finish tied 14th and if anyone is suited to a lengthy links-style windy test, it’s the Aberdonian Ryder Cupper and former Open Champion. There is, however, one huge negative – his putting.
With the rest of his game in good order, I was really hoping to see an improvement with the flatstick last week but he averaged 33.5 putts per round and you can tell by his blog entries that it’s starting to get to him.
If he putts that badly here he has absolutely no chance so it’s a big gamble but if he does finally find something, 48.0 is a massive price for the second highest ranked and most experienced player in the field.
Maximilian Kieffer was superb in Spain two weeks ago when he pushed Raphael Jacquelin all the way in a record-equalling nine-hole playoff. The German European Tour rookie is very long off the tee, showed in Spain that he handles windy conditions and looks a winner in waiting to me. I suspect he may well have been a shade shorter had this event immediately followed the Open de Espana and I was happy enough to take 61.0 in the Betfair Fixed Odds market.
Emiliano Grillo is another big-hitting rookie that looks capable of a breakthrough soon and after finishing inside the top-16 in four of his last five events, I thought he was also worth including before the off at 85.0.
Last and definitely least, I’ve felt compelled to throw a few more pounds at yet another monster-hitting rookie, Andreas Harto. Again, this test looks right up his street and hopefully, with the absence of too much rough, the young Dane can keep the far-too-common disaster holes of his card this week. He’s developed a bad habit of making eights just lately and that’s always going to hinder!
I’ll be back later with my preview of the Wells Fargo Championship.
Selections:
Paul Lawrie @ 48.0
Maximilian Kieffer @ 61.0
Emiliano Grillo @ 85.0
Andreas Harto @ 250.0249/1
Milesey
( betfair )
Milesey, golf tips scheduled to go up at 10pm.
Hi milesey ,
Where you get all this detail information about ipl and gulf?
I have try lay Pune today with £2 and when the cash out gone to £1 profit I have cash out my bet.
I am getting a bit ideA now.
RESULT
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SOUTH AFRICA: Premier League
Orlando 0-1 Chippa United
Milesey
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In South Africa each of Orlando Pirates’ last nine league home games have turned up Under 2.5 Goals and so have 9/13 Chippa United away matches.
Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.9 in Orlando Pirates v Chippa United
HALF TIME
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ENGLAND: Championship
Millwall 0-0 Crystal Palace
Milesey
IPL CRICKET – WEDNESDAY
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Sunrisers Hyderabad v Mumbai Indians 11:30 ITV4
Sunrisers Hyderabad
The hosts have lost some of their momentum as two consecutive defeats have dropped them down the table to a position a win behind the play-off places. This is the first of three consecutive home games and they’ll need to win all of them to stay in contention. To do that, their batsmen will need to find some form, especially after being reduced to 29-6 in their last game against Rajasthan on Sunday. All-rounder Thisara Perera is their top run scorer with a meagre 144 and no batsman has scored more than 63 in an innings. Captain Kumar Sangakkara dropped himself for a few games and it may be no coincidence that he returned to the side for those two defeats. The problem, though, is that his replacement, South African Quinton de Kock, managed to score even fewer runs (just six from three innings). With no batsman in form they will again rely heavily upon their bowling attack. Spinner Amit Mishra has 14 wickets already (good enough for fifth in the overall table) whilst Perera, Dale Steyn and Ishant Sharma are also into double figures. Expect no changes to that part of the lineup, but the bowlers – as shown in that eight wicket defeat on Sunday – can do little if the batsmen can’t put the runs on the board.
Mumbai Indians
Mumbai’s recent form has been the opposite of Hyderabad’s, with three wins representing an upturn in their fortunes after a slump saw them tumble down the table. Again, the captaincy has been a significant factor in this, Ricky Ponting’s decision to drop himself has left an overseas space for West Indian Dwayne Smith, who has scored 146 runs in those three matches, whilst new captain Rohit Sharma has also thrived, picking up 122 runs of his own. Sachin Tendulkar continues to disappoint, averaging just 17.44, but there is little prospect of him being dropped in what is widely expected to be his farewell season. With the ball, two much-maligned bowlers have shored up a sometimes shaky attack, but you do wonder how long Mitchell Johnson and Harbhajan Singh can keep that up for, especially with overseas stars such as Lasith Malinga (once the most feared bowler in this form of the game) and Kieron Pollard providing little support.
Venue and Conditions
There may be a little rain around the Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium at the start of play, but this should swiftly disappear, leaving a clear, dry, evening with temperatures in the high 30s. This is only the fourth game that has been played there this year and in none of the three previous matches has a side scored more than 130 in the first innings.
Match Odds
Hyderabad have won all of their home games this season. Two of those wins were over strugglers Pune and Punjab, whilst the other was a surprise Super Over win over Bangalore. It is a reflection of how the two sides have played recently that the market has Hyderabad second favourites at 1.62 with Mumbai favoured at 1.56. It is hard to ignore that winning home record, so back Hyderabad for a narrow victory.
Top Hyderabad Batsman
There are two problems with backing an actual batsman in this Hyderabad team. The first is that none of them are in much form. The second is that the obvious candidate, Shikar Dhawan will not only be playing just his third game in almost two months, but will be at very short odds. Whilst it is unlikely that there will be the sort of upper order collapse that derailed them on Sunday, why not back their top runscorer, Perera, to top score at odds of 8.0.
Top Mumbai Batsman
Sharma’s fine form makes him a short odds favourite in this market, whilst the odds on Tendulkar are never that good no matter how poor his form. Smith, though, is still a surprisingly generous 4.5 and his free-hitting style could come off on this slow scoring ground.
Recommended Bet:
Back Dwayne Smith at 4.5 to top score for Mumbai Indians.
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Delhi Daredevils vs Kolkata Knight Riders 3:30 ITV4
Delhi Daredevils
Apart from a Sehwag-inspired run-chase to beat Mumbai, there has been no evidence of the form that enabled Delhi to top last year’s points table. Victory over fellow strugglers Pune on Sunday lifted them from bottom place, but their weaknesses remain obvious. If David Warner or Sehwag’s big-hitting doesn’t pay off, there isn’t the batting depth to secure good totals. The loss of Kevin Pieterson has proved a decisive blow. Moreover given the nature of their slow home surface, the lack of a world-class spinner in their ranks is a massive oversight.
Kolkata Knight Riders
KKR have to some extent been even more disappointing because there are no such obvious excuses for their failures. They possess the best bowler in the tournament, Sunil Narine and a superb batting order led by Gautam Gambhir, Jacques Kallis and the impressive Eoin Morgan. Brendon McCullum’s belated return to the side is most welcome and they remain well capable of some very big totals. Indeed, the fact they gave Chennai’s daunting 200 total a serious crack on Sunday must be seen as a positive.
First Innings Runs
Sunday’s match was the first at Raipur so it’s hard to draw strong conclusions. Totals of 165 and 149, by the bottom two sides prone to batting collapses, suggest there are high scores available but I’ll wait for the toss before deciding. If Kolkata bat, 160 plus and even 180 plus could rate good value at anything above 2.0. Delhi, however, are simply too unreliable to trust in this market.
Match odds
Kolkata have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory several times recently but they are fancied to make no mistake against a struggling Delhi outfit. On a slowish pitch that rewards spinners, Sunil Narine’s four overs could prove decisive.
Top Delhi batsman
The latest plan to demote Warner to number four has paid off to some extent, allowing their best player to steer the side towards respectable totals. His time at the crease, however, should coincide with Narine’s spell so I’d prefer to back an opener instead. Apart from that one innings, Sehwag hasn’t comprehensively disproved the theory he’s on the way out so lets back Mahela Jayawardene instead at 4.5.
Top Kolkata batsman
Given Delhi’s propensity to be bowled out cheaply, the best plan may again to back one of the top-three. Brendon McCullum always comes in early and has the power to repeatedly clear these boundaries. At around 5.0, the New Zealand captain is marginally preferred to Gambhir.
Recommended bet
Back Kolkata @ 1.8
Milesey
( betfair )
PLAYOFF THURSDAY
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Bradford and Northampton should make the most of home advantage in the first legs of the League Two play-offs.
Bradford City 2.0 v Burton Albion 4.3; The Draw 3.7
Kick-off: Thursday 19:45
I wonder sometimes whether I worry too much. Is Bradford’s cup expertise – having reached the Capital One Cup Final – in their favour for the play-offs or do those extra games mean they will be exhausted?
The Bantams will play at least 63 games this season, prompting Phil Parkinson to play Andrew Davies, often injured but a huge presence, at centre-back on Saturday to rest Rory McArdle after 55 games. Davies was sent off for two yellow cards and will be suspended. His manager felt he let the team down.
Eight players were changed in all but consider none of them mere ‘squad players’, the 0-0 with last year’s play-off final losers Cheltenham confirming as much. No wonder the city’s newspaper takes the tone, comparing League Two to a prison cell, that the fourth tier is somehow beneath Bradford.
Such disrespectful talk is bound to wind up opposing teams, whether it comes from the club or not. Just two defeats since Wembley is a telling statistic, however, as the Yorkshire club rose to seventh. Furthermore, as Opta state, Burton have never won at Valley Parade and, worse, their last four away games reaped just two points.
That they have salvaged a league-high 23 points from losing positions seems an Opta warning, however, until it is considered that Bradford, at home, have dropped points from leading positions just three times. The Brewers finished the season with a confidence-boosting 3-2 win over weakened Gillingham, Billy Kee (13 this season) finding his scoring touch again along with Calvin Zola (11). All four of their main scorers have netted in recent weeks, Matthew Paterson (7) and Jacques Maghoma (15) battling for net-busting rights. But which Burton will turn up? The one that won 4-0 at Fleetwood or the one that lost 7-1 at Port Vale?
The one that lost 1-0 at Bradford just 10 days ago will not be intimidated by a Premier League standard stadium, that is for sure.
Anyone who has backed them in from 16.0 in the to be promoted market will surely want to cash out now they are 3.35 favourites. It should be worth holding on, at least until the final. Bradford are the team with real momentum and with the play-off matches in the last two years favouring the teams who were at home first, combined with their momentum, it is worth backing them to win even though they are short-priced favourites, all things considered. Over 2.5 goals should also be in order, as the visitors will surely try to make some of the running.
Recommended Bets
Back Bradford @ 2.0
Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.05
——————————
Northampton 2.3 v Cheltenham 3.35; The Draw 3.45
Kick-Off: Thursday 19:45
Ben Tozer believes his Northampton side can ‘mix it up’ in terms of varying how they play: they can bully, rely on set pieces or, more importantly, pass and move.
A terrific home record of late – 10 straight wins at Sixfields before the 2-0 loss to desperate York – indicates a win-at-any-method mentality which will surely stand them in good stead in the play-offs. Ade Akinfenwa, who Opta emphasise has scored in three of his last four games against Cheltenham, can certainly use his size to intimidate up front. He will be fresh from being rested, while the Cobblers await news on the fitness of Clive Platt.
The Cobblers defeated Barnet, who were desperate for points, on the season’s final day and it is telling that, in those 11 wins out of the last 12 home games, Aidy Boothroyd’s side only conceded three goals – in the first three games. Possibly. But which was the last team to win at Sixfields before that? You’ve guessed it. Cheltenham, 3-2. They also won on their own turf.
So, the Robins’ nerves – having been beaten in the play-off final last year – will be somewhat settled. Keeper Scott Brown has kept 20 clean sheets this season, six in the last eight games, to earn him two player of the year awards. Team-mate Marlon Pack has been named in the League Two team of the year and, at 22, already has 150 league appearances. He proved he can pack a punch with a stunning goal in last year’s play-off semi-final, in the second leg at Torquay. Jermaine McGlashan also has to be marshalled well.
He is second top scorer with seven. Only Shaun Harrad with eight has more, which must be a bit of a concern. But Mark Yates’s men also have Paul Benson, who opened the scoring for Dagenham when they won the play-off final in 2010.
Two defeats this season against Cheltenham will give Northampton plenty of ammunition. In fact, Opta reveal, the hosts are without a win in six against their opponents. However, with Northampton’s home record, it is hard to argue against them. Under 2.5 goals at 1.84 is an even stronger fancy, given Northampton do not like conceding at home. A 1-0 home win is value at @ 8.2 as a back to cashout at least.
Recommended Bet
Back Northampton @ 2.3
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.84
Back 1-0 Northampton @ 8.2
Milesey
( betfair )
RESULT – FULL TIME
——————-
ENGLAND: Championship
Millwall 0-0 Crystal Palace
Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 5/2 Bet365
Milesey
I have a question; I backed anytime no goalscorer in the Millwall Palace game as it was the same odds as 0-0. 19/2. Should it not of paid out?!?
Josh, of course it should have. Game finished 0-0. Do you mean first scorer no scorer though.
Exactly what I thought. I backed the draw. That obviously paid out. And also bet on; “anytime goalscorer – 90mins no goalscorer”. I’m a little confused…
Josh, I’m confused too because anytime no scorer is the same bet as first scorer no scorer which is the usual wording. I’d check with the bookie about this but either way the bet’s up as it’s ended 0-0.
Well at least your on my side. My accounts with Betvictor… It’s really got me scratching my head this one!!!