Rochdale 2.5 v Plymouth 3.1; The Draw 3.35
JOHN SHERIDAN is pleased Plymouth have their destiny in their own hands to avoid relegation. Victory at Rochdale would do it and is a stronger possibility than the odds suggest.
Keith Hill's men might have only lost once in seven but the signs are their good form has dried up, knowing they are safe. George Donnelly, Opta point out, has failed to score in the last three having netted five in seven games.
Plymouth, meanwhile, know they still have work to do and will draw on winning two out of the last four away games, at Southend and, more surprisingly, Chesterfield.
Four clean sheets in nine games, with more than one goal conceded just once, will also boost confidence against a side who have drawn the last three at home.
It's a thriling day at the bottom of League Two with two from seven being relegated but Plymouth just want to get the job done and stay out of the equation.
Recommended Bet
Back Plymouth @ 3.1
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
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SERIE A – 2PM KICKOFFS SUNDAY
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Torino v Juventus
The 136th Turin derby in Serie A could be particularly decisive: if Napoli fail to beat Pescara on Saturday night, then Juve could be crowned champions with a victory. If results don’t go the Old Lady’s way, though, it will simply be a delay of the inevitable. Juve WILL hold onto the Scudetto, and will be strong favourites next season to make it three in a row.
Torino were involved in yet another thriller last weekend against Fiorentina, showing immense spirit to come back from three goals down, only to throw away a 3-3 draw in the dying embers of the game. That result did well for this column and it reinforced the idea that Torino are determined to entertain us right until the end of the season. Their last four games have now produced 22 goals, and yet we are able to back Over 2.5 Goals in this one at 2.1. I can see a bit of the reasoning for that, but still find it an astonishing price.
The theory will go that Juve will strangle Torino and that we won’t see the kind of buccaneering end-to-end games that Torino were involved in at the Artemio Franchi, but look at Torino’s results against the rest of the top four when they played them at home. Milan (2-4), Fiorentina (2-2) and Napoli (3-5) all ended up involved in free-flowing games and I don’t see why Juve should be any similar.
I could throw in the fact that Juve won 3-0 in the reverse fixture just to cement the case, but I hardly need to. The Turin derby seems guaranteed to produce goals, and, given Torino’s recent displays, over 2.5 seems like a conservative recommendation.
Recommendation: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1
Sampdoria v Fiorentina
Fiorentina’s march to fourth place in Serie A has proved to be something of a rollercoaster ride and that continued last weekend when they seemed set to throw away a certain three points against Torino, only for Romulo to rescue them late on. La Viola head to Genoa next, where they face a Sampdoria side who haven’t won in six in Serie A, and have lost their last two at home.
Fiorentina are 2.08 for the win, and after winning five of their last seven, that seems a justifiable price.
Fiorentina have now scored in each of their last nine Serie A fixtures, and no one has scored more goals in the first half of games than Vincenzo Montella’s team. They often start matches well, although nerves can take over as they did last week. Stefan Jovetic seems certain to start on Sunday, which takes the goalscoring burden off Adem Llajic.
With Sampdoria seemingly cruising to a mid-table finish, and not overly bothered by results, the only thing standing in the way of a Fiorentina victory would seem to be the presence of Delio Rossi in the Samp dugout. It will be a chance for Rossi to throw his former employers a curveball, and plenty of animosity lingers between Rossi and La Viola (Rossi was, you may remember, sacked by Fiorentina for punching Adem Llajic, a marvellous incident that you can see again here).
I respect (and slightly fear) Rossi enough to swerve Fiorentina here, and focus instead on the Both Teams to Score market. That outcome has occurred in Samp’s last three, and in four of Fiorentina’s last five. I think that a price of 1.9 for Both Teams to Score here is generous, and that is the bet.
Recommendation: Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.9
Milesey
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Aston Villa v Sunderland (Monday, 20:00, Sky Sports 1)
Sunderland have lost just one of their last five Premier League trips to Villa Park (W2 D2 L1)
This fixture is so crunch you can almost hear the sound it would make, something like biting into a pork scratching possibly? Under their new knee-sliding, arm-waving Italian, Sunderland’s survival chances have suddenly taken on a much rosier tint following consecutive Premier League victories for only the third time all season. Aston Villa meanwhile have let their own purple patch of three league wins in four turn into three in seven ahead of hosting the Black Cats. The midlanders prevailed by just a solitary goal at the Stadium of Light earlier in the season and, with so much at stake, you’d expect another tight one.
Recommended Bet: Back the draw @ 3.45
Villa have conceded in their last 18 Premier League games, the longest such run of the season
Clearly one of Aston Villa’s major weaknesses is their inexperienced defence which has leaked goals like a colander this season. Although they again have Ron Vlaar adding a wiser head to their fledgling back four, the likes of Ciaran Clark, Nathan Baker, Joe Bennett and Matthew Lowton – all 23 or younger – have too often been left to marshal themselves. Still, at least Paul Lambert’s side have been able to find the net regularly since the turn of the year. In their last 12 Premier League outings, only the two Manchester clubs have prevented Villa from finding the back of the opposition net.
Best Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.79
There have been five red cards in the last eight Barclays Premier League meetings between Sunderland and Aston Villa
Although this fixture does not immediately spring to mind as one of the tastier in the Premier League calendar, the stats don’t lie. The meeting at the Stadium of Light earlier in the season was no exception. The game may have been shy of goals but it did contain its fair share of yellow cards, five to be precise. Former Villa employee Craig Gardner saw red in this exact fixture last season and, when you throw in the tensions of relegation worry, especially for the home team, you have a potentially volatile situation.
Recommended Bet: Back there to be a sending off @ 5.0
Milesey
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MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY
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River Plate v Quilmes AC – 00:15 K/0
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River Plate have had a little wobble, but Lanús’s spate of draws and Newell’s battling on both fronts has allowed them back in to the title race.
Just two points off the joint-leaders, Ramón Diaz’s men are most certainly in with a shout, and can consider themselves lucky that their notoriously fruitful academy has chucked another gem off the conveyor belt.
An enormous list of injuries, and long-term ones at that, in defence had threatened to derail River’s season but instead it could end in another financial boost for the club.
Centre-back Éder Balanta is just 20 but plays with a maturity far beyond his years. The Colombian is also an incredible physical specimen; fit, strong and quick off the mark, enabling him to deal with virtually everything the Argentine Primera has to throw at him.
Two man of the match performances in just three starts for the club speaks volumes about how key he has been, and is especially impressive when you consider that River’s defensive shield – and Argentine international midfielder – Leonardo Ponzio has been out injured too.
Quilmes, their visitors this week, have had injury problems of their own. Long-term absentee Miguel Caneo was their key playmaker last season, but despite being welcomed back recently after a lengthly spell on the sidelines, he has quickly experienced a recurrence of his injury and won’t feature this weekend.
Martin Cauteruccio’s goals still manage to keep the Brewers in contention but a dip in form has seen them slink into mid-table and a respectable position and adding to their total in the average points (relegation) table is what yo-yoing Quilmes must now focus on.
The visitors will have been disappointed to see River exit the Copa Argentina in embarrassing circumstances in midweek, and they now must face a slightly angered giant, keen to reassert their dominance on the pitch and push the top two.
Match odds
River are understandable odds-on favourites based on form and the wealth of talent at their disposal, while Quilmes would undoubtedly be content with a point.
This weekend more than others it is worth considering what effect future fixtures will have on the game. Sometimes cited as a weakness, it is very much up for debate how much impact the looming Superclasico will have on players.
On one hand, all River players will be concerned about getting injured ahead of the big game at La Bombonera next weekend? but at the same time, it is important to put in a performance if you want to be starting in the biggest game of the year – and for this game we are not foreseeing it as an issue.
Therefore, we are backing River at 1.84.
Goals
Quilmes’ games have one of the highest goal averages in the league, with 2.9 goals per game and seven of their matches going over 2.5.
River have been more unpredictable, with their games averaging 2.2, but the price of 2.42 for over 2.5 goals seems to suggest this game is a cut and dried low-scorer.
The stats don’t agree and therefore the value lies in the overs.
Other bets
River’s lineup for this game looks very impressive, and with Quilmes missing some key names you have to be backing the hosts, but there is also half an eye on Draw/River in the HT/FT market.
The Millionarios have led at half time in just one of their last six, so 4.7 for them to overcome a stalemate at the break and take all three points looks like value.
Recommended Bets
Recommended bet: Back River to win @ 1.84
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Milesey