MAN UTD appear to be coasting towards the end of the season and a more motivated Villa side might just offer the chance of an unlikely win at huge odds.
Stats, form, years of Premier League history and just simple common sense point to a home win on Monday night as Manchester United host Aston Villa.
It's no surprise to see the champions-elect trading at 1.27 to beat their fellow Premier League ever-presents in the last fixture of this gameweek.
Paul Lambert's struggling outfit are an enormous 13.0 to win at Old Trafford with the draw way out there too at 7.0.
So what is it that is pulling me towards a seemingly crazy back of the relegation-threatened Midlanders?!
Motivation and desire is definitely part of it. Villa's need for points far exceeds United's and that counts for so much at this time of the season – witness Wigan's outlandish victories over United and Arsenal at a similar time last season. Witness, too, Villa suddenly discovering form in the last few weeks.
United have thrown in some lacklustre performances of late and the feeling is they have started to coast as the season comes to its end, content to have done enough in the league but disappointed at the way things turned out in Europe and FA Cup. What could have been a truly memorable year will end with a solitary league title.
An energetic Villa side will latch on to any sluggishness from the home team and it wouldn't surprise me to see the visitors score first. The claret and blue frontline is in decent nick with Christian Benteke and Gabriel Agbonlahor – the last Villa player to score a winning goal against United way back in 2009 – both among the goals recently.
Manchester City and West Ham have both put two past David de Gea in recent games and the United defence seems to have lost a touch of its impregnable sheen.
If Villa can score first, their current win odds of 13.0 will collapse. And that takes us into cash out or back-to-lay territory which is the way I'd play it – building a profit on all sides so whether it's a Villa win, defeat or draw you make money.
Let's face it, if Lambert's men do take an unlikely lead it will only serve to wake United up! That's exactly what happened in the previous fixture between the two this season when Villa went into a 2-0 lead only to lose 3-2. A repeat on Monday night would be just the trick.
Betting is all about the price and big odds do come in from time to time, so you have to take a chance on outsiders occasionally. I imagine at least 90 per cent of you will be in disagreement and for those looking to pile into the home side I end this preview with a smattering of the best options.
United/United in the halftime/fulltime market @ 1.81
United win to nil @ 2.1
In-form Robin van Persie to score first @ 5.5
.. but, me, I'll be chasing the big win with an outlandish bet on Villa.
Recommended Bet
Back to lay Aston Villa @ 13.0 (lay @ 3.0 or cash out should Villa lead)
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
hi,
what do we mean by LAY VILLA @ 13
Here we go :
Take alittle punt say a tenner at 13.0, 12/1, thats the bet we have Villa to win @ 13.0, £10, they take a lead and their odds cut into anything around the 3.0 and under mark, then at this stage we put in our LAY, laying villa @ 3.0. or of cause if your betting with betfair then you can cash out….. we need villa to take a lead in order for this play, but as i say it’s worth a tenner Punt.
Milesey
Greening-Up In-Play Example
Chelsea are playing a home league fixture against Aston Villa and their odds to win the game settle in a betting exchange at 1.29 just before kick-off. They are heavy favourites at home to beat Villa, who have been on a bad run of results due to many squad injuries and a new manager settling in, although many of their injured players are returning to full match fitness at the time of this fixture.
Backing Chelsea in an exchange with 100 units at this price would see a profit of just 29 units (gross of commission) if they win or, a total loss of the 100 unit stake if they lose or draw. From a purely numerical perspective, the chance of winning the bet on the home win is one in three.
Chelsea’s form has been disastrous in their previous six or seven games but, playing at home, they are traditionally difficult to beat…
Laying Chelsea (effectively backing them not to win) means backing two of the three total outcomes (laying the home team means backing the draw and the away win), which is exactly the same principle as a bookmaker’s ‘double chance’ bet.
With a lay bet the liability (risk) is reversed and on the basis of the same 100 units stake and 1.29 odds the risk (loss) is just 29 units should Chelsea win the match; of course, the possible profit from laying Chelsea is now the stake of 100 units (gross of commission) should they draw or lose. Before the game kicks off, Aston Villa’s price to win the match reaches 14.5, with the draw at 6.2.
Okay, choosing Chelsea’s dominance in home fixtures, we are seeking to back them to win the match with a stake of 100 units. Not so many games have a goal in the first few minutes and usually the price rises a little as each minute ticks by. Waiting five minutes before placing a bet of this nature is always a good strategy and by the time we place the bet Chelsea’s price to win has risen three points from 1.29 to 1.32.
Shortly afterwards, Chelsea score. Just twelve minutes are on the clock but now is the time to think about hedging the bet.
With a goal already in the bag, Chelsea’s price is now at a very thin 1.16 to win the match but, there is still a large portion of it left to be played. As their price to win has dropped by 50%, this is an ideal situation to ‘lay’ them not to win for instant guaranteed profit from this event.
Using a lay stake of 115 units at a lay price of 1.16, the potential win is obviously 115 units (gross of commission). The 100 unit stake is at risk from the first bet which promises 29 units (gross) should it win. Ideally, the lay bet stake should be calculated to recover the back bet stake plus half of the potential back bet winnings so that the same amount is won regardless of whether the match finishes in a home win (back bet) or draw or away win (lay bet).
Thus, the lay bet stake of 115 units recovers the 100 unit back bet stake plus 15 units on top of that (roughly half of the 29 units that could be won if Chelsea hold on for victory)…
Milesey
The lay bet was duly placed and matched (accepted). Therefore, guaranteed profit was made regardless of the final outcome (in this way the event is said to be, “greened-up”). Not a bad effort with just 15 minutes of the game elapsed.
This is a scenario which actually transpired with our bets as described and the result of the game was a hard fought 3-3 draw.
Of course, another option would have been to ‘lay’ the favourite Chelsea at the start and then back them later in the match as soon as their price hit an acceptable level. This would rely on Chelsea either losing the first goal or, being held to a draw for a significant period of time to allow their odds to rise.
However, you should ideally decide the direction of your bet from a statistical perspective and then only bet if the selection contains ‘value’.
Looking purely at league statistics from most European and World leagues, laying the favourite is better done when they are playing away from home.
For example, in the English Premier League approximately 25% of games end in away wins, season after season and so, laying a favourite playing away becomes more statistically viable. Most favourites are the home team in each fixture and home wins tend to float in the region of 45-50% per league, per season.
Hedging on the difference between prices can also be successfully accomplished before a game even starts and is the modus operandi of arbitrage bettors.
Cutting your Losses
Equally important is knowing when to cut your losses if things are not going so well. With homework, experience and gut feeling, our success rate in predicting outcomes on the bets that we select averages out at around 70-75%. Of course, we wish to surrender as little of our hard-earned profit as possible on the other 25-30%.
Therefore, never be afraid to back-out of a bet even if it means losing a little on all of the possible outcomes. Use exactly the same method as described but instead of optimising the winnings between the outcomes, the loss minimisation exercise is all about equalising the losses so that they are the same no matter what the outcome is.
When doing this, always maintain your discipline and never hedge the losses in favour of one result or another. If the situation is going against you it is always best to back-out with grace, take it on the chin, level out the loss, and move onto the next arena.
If you do decide to hedge the loss and hope that a result changing in your favour will justify stacking heavier amounts of the potential total loss against the other outcomes, then please be realistic with yourself. This is pure gambling with no skill involved at all. If this is your mentality then I am afraid that we cannot help improve your technique until you accept that chasing losses is absolutely the worst characteristic a bettor can possess. You are meat and drink to the gambling industry if you feel the compulsion to win back your losses as quickly as possible.
Milesey
The ability to ‘lay’ an outcome is the major advantage of a betting exchange. If the outcome of a particular event is ‘layed’, you are betting on it not to win. For example, the result of a football match can be a home win, away win or a draw. By placing a single lay bet against one of these three outcomes not to win you are actually ‘backing’ the other two to win, providing in numerical terms (not actual probabilities) a two in three chance of success.
For the full-time home, draw and away market this is the betting exchange equivalent of a bookmaker’s ‘double chance’ bet.
However, a ‘lay’ bet is more useful in event markets where there are numerous outcome possibilities (e.g. half-time or full-time correct score markets, half-time/full-time result combination bet, etc.). For example, the half-time/full-time market has nine possibilities and laying one of these would mean winning the bet if any of the other eight possible outcomes were to happen.
Of course, if the outcome you have ‘layed’ wins, then the bet is lost.
Because of the application of a commission charge on winnings, the back prices found in betting exchanges are higher in order to compete with bookmakers. If this were not the case, then there would be no compulsion for anyone to use a betting exchange ante post (i.e. placing a bet before the event). It is the customers who decide the prices they are willing to buy (back) and sell (lay), not the betting exchange.
Traders or arbitrage bettors profit from price changes either before an event has started or whilst it is in-play.
When a goal is scored or another major event potentially affecting the outcome of a game occurs (e.g. a sending-off, penalty award, etc.), the betting exchange prices are temporarily ‘frozen’. The market is then said to be ‘suspended’.
The market switches ‘live’ again once the goal or other occurrence has been confirmed as a permanent event in the match. At this point prices will have dramatically altered allowing profitable trading situations for those currently in a winning position. For those on the other side of the coin, trading out of a losing position for profit is not possible but, of course, they can consider trading out for a loss in order to cut their overall potential loss.
Trading in-play is available for the entire duration of a game. Extra time, if applicable, is treated as a separate event.
When a bet is placed, the credit in a user’s account is reduced by the amount of the potential liability (even if it is not yet matched). Only the unmatched portion of any bet can be cancelled by the bettor at any time and the applicable stake/liability is immediately credited back to his account balance.
When a match is finished the betting exchange automatically credits the winning bettors. Some exchanges credit winnings as soon as the bet is won, which might be at any point in a match if, for example, an over 2.5 goals bet is selected and the third goal is scored.
Betting exchanges offer a far more ‘exciting’ interactive experience than live, in-play betting with a bookmaker where selections are limited to back bets only.
Milesey
( betfair )
At some stage, after extensive paper exercises and calculations everyone will reach the phase where testing a system or strategy with real money is necessary.
However watertight the system seems on paper, if it includes laying at high odds, the risk of depleting the betting bank quickly is also high if complying with Betfair’s minimum stake of 2 € / £2 on all bets.
However, there is a way to bypass the minimum ensuring you can play with stakes as small as you wish.
This is not a technical error or a ‘cheat’ as the trick has existed since the beginning of Betfair.
So, how does it work?
Back Bets
Step 1:
Select the desired bet and ask for odds that will not immediately get matched, Stake the minimum amount of 2 units – of course, the bet will not be matched:
Step 2:
After the bet is not matched, go to “My Bets” and change the stake to whatever amount you want to have plus 2 (the minimum stake).
Step 3:
Betfair will accept this new stake but also not match it and both stakes will remain technically separated: One bet for the original 2 € / £2 stake and another for the additional 0.10 € / £0.10:
Now, cancel the original bet of 2 € / £2 (simply click the red cross on the left) and change the odds for the remaining stake of 0.10 € / £0.10 to the market odds. Submit this bet.
the 2 € / £2 bet was cancelled and the 0.10 € / £0.10 bet placed at the new (market)
Instead of the minimum amount of 2 € / £2 there is now just 0.10 € / £0.10 placed on over 2.5 goals:
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For lay bets the procedure is exactly the same but instead of choosing ridiculously high odds to start off with, set the lay price to 1.01 to ensure no immediate match. After the minimum amount of 2 € / £2 for this bet has been processed the stake needs to be changed to the desired amount (risk), and the original 2 € / £2 needs to be cancelled so that only the smaller amount with the desired odds remains.
Betting below Betfair’s minimum stake is exploited particularly by ‘bots’, which can perform the mechanics of the process at the touch of a button rather than manually following each of the steps described above. If you’re not into bots then the manual method sounds more complicated than it is but we assure you it’s fairly straight forward once you get the hang of it. It certainly helps to test systems with real money, but reduced risk.
As we update this article in June 2012, rumours are beginning to circulate that Betfair is closing the accounts of customers who regularly flout their minimum stake requirements. Whether this is true or not remains unconfirmed.
Lastly, another of Betfair’s features we find very handy for testing purposes is the opportunity to register several accounts under different user names but retaining your usual address and real identity. This opens the door to testing different ideas in different accounts to keep everything neat and simple.
Milesey
Backing and Laying of Sports Bets
With a traditional bookmaker one bets on the outcome of an event (e.g. football team A is to win) and the tipster receives a reward according to the odds, plus his stake money returned, if the required result happens.
The opposite of this concept is the ‘Lay’ of an outcome using a betting exchange. In this case, one acts as a bookmaker and offers to another bettor in the same betting exchange a sports bet to purchase (e.g. football team A is to win). Once one’s offer is taken (i.e. the bet is ‘matched’), the ‘Lay’ will be won if football team A doesn’t win (i.e. it draws or loses). However, if team A does win, the bet is lost and one’s liability is won by the matched party who backed team A to win.
So, with a betting exchange one can ‘Back’ an outcome and also bet against it with a ‘Lay’ bet; with a traditional bookmaker one can only ‘Back’
Milesey
Asian Handicap Betting
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Handicap betting is not only popular with American football, but also basketball, baseball, rugby, ice hockey and even football where it is most commonly referred to as Asian handicap betting.
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Let’s take a look at the different kinds of Asian Handicaps available for football betting.
1. The -0.5 or +0.5 Handicap
Team A (-0,5) vs Team B (+0,5).
Team A in this example is considered the favourite to win, which is reflected in Team B’s +0.5 advantage. +0.5 simply means that Team B is rewarded half a goal at the conclusion of the match.
If the match is a draw, Team B will then be the winner since they end the match with half a goal more than Team A.
If you put your money on Team B you will benefit from two possible outcomes: Team B win or draws, you win. Another way of expressing this is Team A needs to win for your bet to lose.
2. No Time For Ego
When two teams are likely to draw, the 0 handicap express that if your team wins, so does your bet. Asian Handicaps were largely created to eliminate a draw as an available option, so if the match is a draw, your stake is returned just as if the bet never happened.
3. The 1 Handicap
This handicap works just like a 0.5 handicap. But when the handicap is 1 it means one of the teams is given a 1 goal advantage.
Team A is in this case a bigger favourite thus rewarded a -1 handicap.
If your money is on Team B, Team A needs to win by two goals or more for you to lose. Remember that a 1-0 win to Team A equals a draw, which is still a result in your favour since a defeat with just one goal means you get your stake refunded.
When you bet on Team B (+1) the possible outcomes look like this:
Team B wins
You win.
Team B draws
You win (the kicker is the 1 goal handicap advantage.)
Team B loses by one goal
Your stake is refunded
Team B loses by more than one goal
You lose the bet
4. The 1.5 Handicap
Betting on Team B, the handicap is this time +1.5:
Team B wins
You win
Team B draws
You win
Team B loses by one
You win
Team B loses by two or more
You lose
5. Split Asian Handicaps / Quarter Asian Handicaps
Compared to other sports, soccer is a relatively low-scoring affair. Thus it didn’t take the bookies long to diversify the available handicaps even more, and offer split bets, that are also known as “quarter Asians”.
If you bet on these handicaps, your initial stake is divided equally among two Asian handicaps.
Bets will for example be expressed in this manner:
Team B +0 and +0.5.
In this example, half your stake is placed on the +0 option, and the other on +0.5. Thus your returns depending on the end result look like this:
Team B wins
your whole bet wins.
Team B draws
half of your stake is refunded (the +0 part), the other half is returned as a winning bet.
Thus you win half of what you would have won if Team B actually had won the match.
Team B loses
you lose your whole stake.
Often the +0/+0.5 betting option is referred to as +0.25, as this is straight in the middle of both values. That’s why bets like these are also called “quarter Asians.”.
There is another variant of this, like the Team B -0.25 option (equalling -0 and -0.5). In this case the different outcomes play out like this for your bet:
Team B wins
your whole bet wins.
Team B draws
you lose half your stake.
Team B loses
you lose your whole stake.
As you can see, there are many layers of complexity to Asian handicap betting that can make it both an exciting and intriguing way to bet.
Milesey
In-Play Betting
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With the rise of the internet, came the rise of In-Play betting. Although it hasn’t quite reached its peak yet in terms of global popularity, it has quickly ascended within Europe with many professional punters in the UK now operating as full-time ‘traders’, much like stock brokers playing the stock exchange.
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1. How does In-Play betting work?
Traders will bet in and out of the market while a match is in running. Many will study the tendencies of particular teams to determine at what stage of the match they should bet on them and what stage of the match they should bet on their opposition. As goals or points are scored, the odds on who will win the match change. Typically betting is suspended and all bets are cleared once a score takes place. Then once play resumes, betting recommences and the traders will trade their position, looking to sure up profit no matter what the outcome.
2. Where can you bet on sports In-Play?
In-play betting is perhaps most popular on the betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq. However with its increased popularity, most bookmakers now offer some form of in-play wagering and do so on a wide range of sports, with football, tennis and cricket being perhaps the three most popular sports to bet on in-play.
3. Things to consider before becoming an In-Play bettor
It should be noted however, that in-play betting isn’t something for those just starting out in betting. It takes a great deal of experience with those particular markets in order to be successful long-term. But if you have rich insight into a particular sport it can be tremendously rewarding.
A way of approaching the discipline is starting out with small stakes. Even if you have some expertise in betting it is recommended that you start out slow.
Also keep in mind that betting on real time or live events might sound like you are betting on events that are taking place right now. But some broadcasts are transmitted with a small delay. This means that someone physically present at an event can have a huge advantage because they actually see things before you do. E.g. a person standing at the horse track sees that the favourite has suddenly fallen way behind will in some cases have four seconds to sell bets in the time gap before the TV signal reaches your telly. Therefore you may want to start out betting on events that are not subject to make or break incidents.
Lastly, a common mistake made by In play betting rookies is forgetting to withdraw bet offers. If no one matches your bet, make an immediately retreat. Leaving an unmatched bet on the market will mean easy money for someone else since the market sometimes moves very quickly, leaving your bet up for grabs.
In-Play betting is a new and exciting way of betting. If you’re a sharp experienced bettor, it’s a great way of make consistent and frequent profits.
Milesey
But how can we as punters know if something will or will not have any make or break incidents? I’m very interested in the In Play markets and do as much research as i can but obviously there are no guarantees when doing it, so can you explain that a bit more please Milesey
Well……….. something like inplay on the Grand National is in my book a no no, for it’s an event where anything could happen, as shown this year…. Jump racing i tend not to do inplay, i tend to put LAYS in on some of the short favourites before the start, but never go back in play. Hurdle races i will go in on, but very hard to get in quick and get a bet placed when you see a horse coming through the field, with the delay it takes to get the bet on, so the best way i find to get that matched is to go in as low as possible, what you can not do on sites such as bet365, you see an oppurtunity of a goal in a game, such as a free kick etc…. you can’t get that bet on for trying to get it through is impossible, but on the exchange you can put that bet in as low as you want, i hit them at 101 to makesure they get on, you don’t have to go that low though.
This is what a make or break decision is, same as in play on something like Formula one, anything can happen, the car could conk out, a wheel could come off, it’s all about keeping your risk down to a minimum. As has been shown on this site, look for the games where the stats show lots of goals, corners, and inplay you can make some nice money by backing the overs.
Milesey
I do try and find some In Play tips on the net but i don’t think there are many tips you can give punters apart from, as you say, looking at stats from other punters
Look out for Bounty Punter on here, does well with the overs inplay, on the goals market and also the corners market.
Milesey
Hi all, as some of you might know im a huge Villa fan and have a feel like the script has already been written for this. Benteke to score first and shock the expectant crowd then we become our usual crumbling self against fergies lot and lose about 3-1.
Im on that scorecast @ 145/1 (willhill)
Also covering the same scorer with 2-1, 4-1, 3-2, 4-2.
Good luck all
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