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IT'S that time of year when the form book tends to take a back seat to that lifeblood of early-season punting. Step forward, the power of gossip.
Unfortunately, rumour tends to be the bookmakers’ friend more often than not. So as a general rule punters should bet with their eyes open and their ears closed. If it is possible to close or shut your lugholes, of course.
But I must admit that my ears did prick up when listening to William Haggas being interviewed by Oli Bell on RUK recently, when his enthusiasm for Lady Nouf certainly didn’t go unnoticed chez Calvin.
Now, William was in playful mood throughout an excellent and informative stable interview, pulling up the recently returned-from-Australia Bell on his pronunciation on the afore-mentioned horse, but his serious enthusiasm in the filly was plain to see.
So I can’t help feeling that at around 10.0 on Betfair that the once-raced filly is worth chancing in the Nell Gwyn at 4.05 at Newmarket.
Now, don’t get me wrong, this selection has rather more substance to it than just me noting the twinkle in Mr Haggas’ eyes when talking about the horse. Or the fact he said he hadn’t been able to get the filly off the bridle in her homework this spring, though he went on to add“I haven’t tried too hard, admittedly.”
But Haggas is the kind of trainer who tends to know what he has on his hands before he gets to the racecourse – he is a great placer of horses, as his strike rate is testament to, and has again started the season in top form – and there was a good deal to like about Lady Nouf’s win in a Leicester maiden last season.
She may need further than 7f to excel in time, but didn’t look short of pace at Leicester and the form of that maiden worked out really well, with the second and third home both winning next time.
Timeform reckon that she only has 10lb to find with Sky Lantern on that run and, at the price, I’ll take my chances that the gap is bridgeable here. She rates a win and place bet.
I was over in Santa Anita when Richard Hughes had to sit and suffer when getting no run on Sky Lantern in the Breeders’ Cup Juveniles Fillies Turf, and you had to think she would have gone close with a clear passage there.
Richard Hannon Jr was another in bullish mood when talking about this filly on ATR earlier in the week. Apparently she has wintered exceptionally well – “the best any of our fillies have done for years” – and is in rip-roaring form, rating a worthy favourite for the Nell Gwyn. But she has a 3lb penalty for her earlier Group 1 Moyglare win and being drawn 14 of 14 could prove a negative, too.
There was a time when the Newmarket Craven meeting was screened live on Channel 4 but it has to be said the likes of the Free Handicap and the Fielden Stakes have increasingly become an irrelevance when it comes to pointers for the 2000 Guineas and Derby respectively. So the no-show is understandable.
Recommended Bets
Back Lady Nouf win and place in the Nell Gwyn (4.05pm)
Milesey (Betfair)
Four horses in the Free Handicap at 15:30 hold Guineas entries, with the unexposed Garswood arguably the most interesting of them, but this could just go to the one that boasts a fitness edge having narrowly been denied in a listed race at Lingfield last month, namely Emell. The three-year-old landed a Salisbury maiden last term prior to finishing second at Doncaster over six furlongs, shaping as though a step up in trip would be right up his street. His return this year, over seven furlongs at Lingfield, was a promising one, conceding first run to the eventual winner, and with that run under his belt he could take some stopping as he takes to handicaps on a realistic mark.
Back Emell @ 4.7 in the 15:30 at Newmarket
Milesey ( betfair )
Back Emell @ 4.7 in the 15:30 at Newmarket ** 2ND **
RESULT
15:30 Newmarket
1st 4. Garswood
2nd 10. Emell
3rd 9. Lucky Beggar
Milesey