LEICESTER are odds on for the visit of Birmingham in the Championship this evening but those tuning into Sky Sports 2 at 7.45 will see the home side flop again.
I’ve seen some poor odds in my time but Leicester’s have to be up there with the worst. They are currently trading at around the 1.74 mark having won just one of their last dozen matches and propping up the form table for the last six fixtures.
After looking like automatic promotion candidates for most of the season, Nigel Pearson’s men have been woeful since the start of February. Following on from completing five wins on the spin on the last day of January, the Foxes have dropped like a stone courtesy of seven points from a possible 36, and they are now outside of the play-off places with just five games to go.
They have lost their last two at the King Power Stadium without scoring a goal and while they were reduced to 10 men early on against Millwall, there were no excuses for the defeat to the struggling Sheffield Wednesday. Prior to that it took a last-minute equaliser against Leeds to secure a point and the West Yorkshire outfit have been dire on the road this term.
Birmingham have had a poor campaign themselves as after missing out in the play-offs last season they have been struggling at the wrong end of the table for most of this one. Things have looked brighter in recent weeks though as the Blues have put an impressive run together and climbed to 13th place, only seven points behind tonight’s opponents.
Lee Clark’s side have lost just three of their last 15 in the league and during the month of March won three on the trot – beating Derby at home and then recording excellent victories at Middlesbrough and Crystal Palace.
They have since had two disappointing results at St Andrews – losing to Wolves and being held by Millwall but I’m expecting them to improve now they’re back on the road where the pressure is off.
Leicester may very well end up winning but betting is all about value and they are one of the worst value bets I’ve seen – win or lose. That’s why, at around the 1.74 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Leicester v Birmingham @ 1.74
Milesey (Betfair)
In December 2020 we sadly 
LA LIGA PREVIEW
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Real Betis v Sevilla
Friday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports Xtra)
Betis 2.68 Sevilla 2.86 draw 3.6
Sevilla won the derby 5-1 in November.
Betis have a more recent 5-1 of their own to crow about – from last week’s trip to Granada – and get the chance to reassert themselves at the Benito Villamarin on Friday night.
Pepe Mel’s hosts are slight favourites, but we wonder if they shouldn’t be more strongly fancied. Sevilla have taken one point from 15 on the road under Unai Emery and this time they’re missing central defender Fernando Navarro, who was sent off a week ago.
Jesus Navas’ return raises the prospect of an away goal, but top-scorer Alvaro Negredo tends not to thrive on big occasions – the city derby definitely counts as one – and in Opta’s world he’s missed as many ‘big chances’ as anyone in Europe’s top five leagues this season. Away from home, he’s scored once in seven games.
Both teams to score is keenly priced at 1.67 so, with Betis conceding only twice in six home games, we’ll taken them on an Asian Handicap instead.
Recommended Bet
Back Betis -0 @ 1.9
Espanyol v Valencia
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 3)
Espanyol 3.2 Valencia 2.46 draw 3.4
Javier Aguirre is unbeaten in eight home games since taking charge of Espanyol (W5-D3-L0).
Valencia have lost only once in seven away matches.
Draw?
Well, no one’s finished more games all-square than Espanyol this season (9/30).
Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.4
Malaga v Osasuna
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 3)
Malaga 2.06 Osasuna 4.1 draw 3.6
Malaga are W1-D3-L2 at home recently and their mood hasn’t been improved by Tuesday’s late exit from the Champions League.
The Anchovies have scored only four times in those six outings at La Rosaleda, which is (not) enough to suggest they will struggle against an Osasuna side that has scored eight in five on the road.
Malaga are barred from Europe next season, leaving them with little to play for, while Jose Luis Mendilibar’s visitors are spurred on by the threat of relegation. Expect Osasuna to take at least a small step towards safety on Saturday.
Recommended Bet
Back Osasuna +0.5 @ 1.95
Atletico Madrid v Granada
Sunday 16:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Atletico 1.36 Granada 11.5 draw 5.4
Granada are on a winless streak of seven. Until last weekend’s 5-1 collapse at home to Betis, they were at least not getting beaten by much.
The goals have dried up for Atletico and, with playmaker in chief Arda Turan out injured, for them this could be a seventh straight game of Under 2.5 Goals.
In which case Falcao, who has claimed both of the two goals Atletico have scored at the Vicente Calderon in the last two months, is an idea for First Goalscorer.
That’s what he’s been on seven occasions already this season.
Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.12
Real Zaragoza v Barcelona
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 2)
Zaragoza 7.6 Barcelona 1.51 draw 4.8
Zaragoza are winless in 2013. The streak is 13 in total.
Finally a stroke of luck: Lionel Messi is likely to sit out the game in preparation for the stiffer challenge of Bayern Munich.
Barcelona’s Liga results have not suffered in the aftermath of Champions League games: they’re W8-D1-L0 immediately following European assignments this season, and the draw was at home to Real Madrid.
But their away form has dipped recently (W1-D2-L2), Messi’s absence is a concern and the most consistent trend is for both teams to score: that’s what’s happened in 13/15 of Barca’s road games so far this term.
Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.75
Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 2)
Athletic 7.4 Real 1.53 draw 4.5
Real Madrid’s results have not obviously suffered for their ongoing Champions League campaign: Los Blancos have won 7/9 after playing midweek in Europe.
Anytime, anywhere, they’ve won 7/8 in La Liga, but their away form is not quite so conclusive. Mourinho’s men have won by two or more only twice in 11 since a Clasico in October. We’d be against them, if only Athletic weren’t so eminently capable of imploding – and if only they weren’t so short on eligible players.
Marcelo Bielsa has four players out suspended and perhaps another five absent injured. He’s been tinkering with defensive systems recently and, so long as Xabi Alonso and Ronaldo start, we’ll take the away win.
Both teams to score also makes some appeal – it’s paid out in each of Real’s last six Liga games – but looks sharply priced at 1.65.
Recommended Bet
Back Real Madrid @ 1.53
Real Mallorca v Celta Vigo
Monday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 3)
Mallorca 2.14 Celta 4.0 draw 3.6
Bottom entertains second-bottom on Monday night. Together they should entertain even the casual viewer.
Eight of Mallorca’s ten games under Gregorio Manzano, including each of the last six, have gone Over 2.5 Goals and so have five of Celta Vigo’s six games since Abel Resino took over.
Iago Aspas is still suspended for the visitors, but an odds-against price means we’re ready to punt.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.06
Milesey
BET OF THE DAY
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DENMARK 5.30 K/O
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 in Silkeborg v AGF ** WINNER **
Milesey
SINGLE OF THE DAY
FRANCE: Ligue 2
7.OO K/O
Niort V Angers
Angers @ 2.56 ** LOST **
BET OF THE DAY
DENMARK 5.30 K/O
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 in Silkeborg v AGF ** WINNER **
LAY OF THE DAY
Lay Leicester v Birmingham @ 1.74 ** WINNER **
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IRELAND: Premier League
7.45 K/O
UC Dublin V St. Patricks
OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.0 ** LOST **
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SPAIN: Primera Division
9.00 K/O
Betis V Sevilla
OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 1.83 ** WINNER **
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AUSTRIA: Erste Liga
5.30 K/O
FC Lustenau V Grodig
GRODIG @ 2.03 ** WINNER **
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CZECH REPUBLIC: Gambrinus liga
7.15 K/0
Brno V Sigma Olomouc
SIGMA @ 2.0 ** LOST **
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TOP TREBLE
SIGMA @ 2.0 ** LOST **
GRODIG @ 2.03 ** WINNER **
Betis V Sevilla
OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 1.83 ** WINNER **
5.86/1
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Milesey
Nice Call on Leicester btw even tho the brummies left it a tad late ;-) and spot on about the value analogy m8
1plus2, Burke’s goal saved me a bob or two. Hope a few were on him to score at 5-1 or even 6-1 in places.