Old Trafford, Monday, 8pm, live on Sky Sports
IT'S not often you get the chance to back Manchester United at odds against playing at home this season and on price alone I feel duty bound to make them a recommended bet for this Monday night special.
Yes, City are their nearest opponents in the league and this is a derby match. But records don’t get much stronger than United’s at Old Trafford with 14 wins from 15 games and I don’t buy the argument City will win because they are the more motivated side.
Had Sir Alex Ferguson’s team won in the FA Cup at Chelsea on Easter Monday they could possibly have been excused a reserved performance from a weaker than expected line-up with Fergie looking to safeguard his best players for a potential double.
They didn’t though and there’s no reason to think Sir Alex will not field his best XI, and massively motivated for a fixture with nothing but pride at stake.
Successful betting is built on taking value prices and, at 2.34 to win, United are just that.
Old Trafford has been criticised for lacking atmosphere in recent times but there will be no lack of passion from a full house tonight.
The capacity crowd and those watching at home will be expecting a cracking game from two of the most talented attacks in English football but I feel it will be defences to the fore.
Opta stats back that up: City have kept the most clean sheets in the league this year (14) and United are next on the list with 11. David de Gea has not had to pick the ball out of his net in the last six league games.
With those stats on board I’m happy to take a chance on under 2.5 goals at odds against. There have been plenty of goals in this game but the equivalent fixture around this time last year finished 1-0 to City. Bold punters might take a chance on either team winning 1-0 10.0 for United and 13.0 for City.
Vincent Kompany scored the winner that night at the Etihad and his return is big for City. He scored against Newcastle as City romped to a 4-0 win and just having the captain back – both on the pitch and in the dressing room – will be huge.
That just makes a tight game more likely and I don’t think his return will be enough to steer City to victory. Robin van Persie may have gone cold – not that I find that of any great concern – and I fancy United to hold sway over their Noisy Neighbours by the odd goal.
Recommended Bets
Back United to win @ 2.34
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
2 each draw
F ING SHITY !
0-0 H/T all was going well, looking for a nice 1 nil man utd to scrape it……… oh well.
UNITED V CITY
Back United to win @ 2.34
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16
Milesey
Manchester City were matched at a high of 5.6 before getting the better of their bitter rivals in tonight’s Manchester derby.
United went into the fixture with a 15 point lead at the top of the table and the Premier League title virtually assured whatever the outcome, though the last thing Sir Alex Ferguson would have wanted was another home defeat at the hands of the ‘noisy neighbours’ following last season’s 1-6 mauling.
But it was City who arguably had the better of the proceedings in a relatively dull first half, though neither side could make the breakthrough and the half ended goalless.
In a much better second half it was City that took the lead thanks to James Milner, who smashed the ball home via a Phil Jones deflection on 51 minutes. The City midfielder was matched at 38.0 in the First Goalscorer market.
It didn’t take long for United to reply however, a Robin van Persie free-kick was headed back across goal by Jones before striking the back of Vincent Kompany and finding its way into the net.
Both sides threatened to go on and win the game but it was a moment of pure genius from Sergio Aguero that eventually stole the points for City. The Argentinian received the ball on the edge of United’s box before darting from left to right, beating all before him, before smashing home a high shot past the despairing David De Gea.
The 1-2 Correct Score was matched at a high of 26.0 In-Play, while the James Milner/1-2 Scorecast was matched at a massive 250.0.
The result means United’s lead at the top of the table is cut to 12 points with seven games remaining, but as far as the title is concerned it’s still as good as over according to Betfair‘s Premier League Winner market – United are available to back at 1.02 with City at 44.0.
Milesey ( betfair )
Everyman and there dog betting one team in a competitive game of footy man city ain’t turning up to get beat 1-0 there turning up to win
Gonna be a high scoring game game tonight… The title is out of city’s reach and they got nothing to lose… 3-2 either way or maybe even 4-2 great value in 4-2 so might be tempted on a couple of quid both ways… Like Craig said they ain’t turning up to Lose 1-0…
Craig- well said m8
Defo bts, over 2.5 goals.
Fair enough 6/5 is a good price for utd at home,but think people are goin over board.utd are no way invincible.city are a very talented team and tevez to score and city to win at 5/1 is unreal value.
Why are the odds on United still going up?
Tommy, only one reason – punters must be backing City. As both Milesey and myself had said it’s a really hard call and 5-2 City isn’t a price you’ll get very often.
Same with United, you can’t find such odds on them @home.
This game cld finish 0-0 like any other, every one was saying chelsea man utd btts and overs and it ended up 1-0 chelsea, both teams could easily cancel each oyher out. I’m just hoping it’ll be a decent game…wi carrick getting motm 16/1 :) yaya good shout too but only 8/1 wi Ladbrokes
We all wait all morning for the ‘expert’ to put some inspirational tip up,and he says united win
Lol.good1.bored of this site now.
Seriously something wrong with you ?
What do you want me to say, city will win ? what are you actually expecting ? you want to make money or be a complete loser all your life.
OKAY a tip just for you, JOE HART 1ST GOAL SCORER, get your money on that TIP OF THE DAY !
Milesey
Milesey, we’ve had a couple of crackers today. Probably won’t realise your Hart tip’s a joke.
Rick, we’re bored with you to. If you’re so good give us some tips instead of moaning at the people who have tipped it. It’s not an easy call which is probably why we’re being cautious. This is a free tipping site, if you have demands go and pay someone to do them for you.
He wants a 100-1 winner everyday, nothing less will do ;)
Milesey
Milesey, expectations are too high sometimes. You and I and everyone else who contributes to this site have day jobs and a limited amount of time to devote to it. If we didn’t have jobs and were full-time on the site we’d be charging at least a tenner a week for access.
If i have a day to look, i still couldn’t find him a 100-1 winner anyway, if he wants to pay me a tenner to find him one i am sure i could though, a 100-1 shot, not a winner ;)
Milesey
Malaga are 100/1 to win the Champions League Milesey ;)
And the Grand National winner was 100/1 I think. Shame on all of us for not getting on it :p
It was before coming in to 66/1, not exactly sure what it was betfair sp, someone told me 236.00 on the exchange, but not had alook myself yet.
Milesey
@ RICK TURD,,,Paul/Milesy…surely the ‘tips’ that you put up, (without charging, as many do,) are ‘opinions’ from people who are involved in betting on a day to day basis.
We can either follow them or disregard them,,your opinions/our choice weather to back them, I dont think you can get fairer than that. Personally i think its a great site with good tips, good comps. and generally good banter…So Rick,,take yer baw n go hame,,,I suppose you winge to the unfortunate woman who puts up with you that its mr F n Milesy’s fault that you keep getting beat,,,awe wee shame !!!! keep up the good work lads
SilentJoe, well said. Much more erudite than Muzza!
Mr F I have a degree in English Language but I like to br precise and to the point! :-)
On the way back from United game, stuck in traffic on M6 – not likely to be home before 2am and have a 6:30 meeting in Peterborough – oh the joy of being a football fan!
I take it you didn’t get on Milesey’s Atalanta tip (I did at 9/2 :D) [chaotic game] or any of Mr. F’s/Milesey’s numerous winners this week?
Aye Ricky get on Nial Quinn to score first, buying money
Honestly, don’t mean to spark off a lengthy argument on here , but there are a minority of complete imbeciles on this site.
Dean, Patrick, cheers for the support. Honestly, we all do our best and put in a lot of time and effort and I’ve seen a lot worse sites and a lot worse tipsters who charge plenty.
I know one site, not naming names, where the person/people involved give tips on 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 shots and loses half the time!
MRS FIXIT ?
Milesey
Patrick, if you tip 1-3, 1-4, and 1-5s you have to get them right at least 9 out of 10. Nothing wrong with those tips if your market audience are playing with high stakes.
A winning tip is a good tip for sure, no matter the odds but that site’s record is abysmal, I’m taking 50-60% win ratio at best with odds in the 1/3 region which is just not good enough.
Now fair play to the person running the site for having the guts to be seen with these tips but my main point is that this particular site does trump many others.
Patriick,its a pity you missed Guido onn here friday night tipping up the Grand National winner at 133/1 on betfair,he advised an eachway punt which i did, i then advised him to do an Irish double on crusaders @ 21/20 and Sligo Rovers @ 3/4 which also came in,yesterday if you look back you will see me advising those having a punt on the scots cup game between Partick and QOS to look at QOS last 3 rounds stats that went to xtra time or pens,i addvised having a punt on either team for this at 11/1 for 1 of them to win in xtra time and 12/1 for a win for either on pens,these represent the rubbish tips you mention on here then in past 2 days???Show me where you find free tips better than these and ill come and join you.
Patrick, I edited it.
@ Rick Lund – what a complete helmet you are
here is a tip for you change your surname from lund to Turd
Boo C, that’s got to be the tip of the day. And probably a 100-1 shot too.
Well I think this is a great site… I work 50 hours a week and have just had a beautiful baby boy 7 weeks ago I like a bet cuz it’s fun and its its nice to win a few quid every now and again… I only spend 20 to 30 quid a week and if I lose I lose I don’t go out much and have bills to pay like all of you, I’m guilty of always goin for the bigger wins but that’s wat I do… Half the time if I listened to mr f and milsey I’d make a lot more so keep up the good work guys… Great site
Daleboi, congrats on the new arrival. I’m glad you like the site, anyone who doesn’t shouldn’t read the tips.
3 TEAMS FOR THIS WEEK
Manchester Utd v Manchester City {MON}
Manchester Utd @ 11/8
West Ham U21 v Tottenham Hotspur U21 {MON}
Tottenham Hotspur U21 @ 6/5
FC Basel v Tottenham {THURS,Bet Of The Week!}
Fc Basel @ 8/5
Cant ignore the great odds for a man united team that have won 14 losing only 1
from 15 homes this season.
Tottenham u21 stand head and soulders above the rest in the
u21 prem lg elite division,they are 10 pts ahead of 2nd placed man united
and have won 9 of last 11 games losing only once,scoring 33 goals in last 10 games
West ham havent won in last 6 and sit 2nd bottom with 9 points from 9 games.
FC Basel ive posted about before,this price is huge for a team not to be underestimated
having beaten both Man united and Bayern munich at home last year.
Home form is very strong
winning 10 and drawing 3 from 13,scoring 28 and conceding only 6.
They showed their qualities in the 1st half at white hart lane
and i cant see a spurs team minus bale getting anything from this.
All represent good value bets as singles
For those interested in a treble a £10 stake at above odds
available from skybet returns £135.85.
am with you on basle sean, looked at them yday and decent odds especially wi bale and lennon out and avb may want to concentrate on that 4th champs league place instead of europa success, prefer to be on them to qualfy as a safety tho
Vincent Kompany. First player booked 16/1
I’ll be on Utd 2-0,2-1 and 3-1
City have only managed 2 goals in their last 4 league aways at Stoke,QPR,Southampton,Villa and Everton
Utd have scored 9 in last 4 home PL games
Man Utd should be too strong and are too good too ignore at the prices being quoted
Man.C. will score against that defence tho.
City win tonite … tevez 1-0 (40/1 skybet )
Tevez 1st goal 2-1 (60/1 skybet )
You heard it here 1st .. (life long City fan) lol
Too many who gets coming too these pages nowadays. If these who gets were any good themselves they wouldn’t need help from sites like this.
Dry yer eyes lads and take the losses like a man, sweetie wives the lot eh yous
Whingers not who gets!!!!! Anybody wantin too buy a freshly smashed Iphone5????
Predictive text will be the death of me
Manchester United
01 De Gea
02 Rafael
03 Evra
04 Jones
05 Ferdinand
11 Giggs
16 Carrick
18 Young
10 Rooney
19 Welbeck
20 Van Persie
Substitutes
13 Lindegaard
28 Buttner
07 Valencia
17 Nani
23 Cleverley
26 Kagawa
14 Hernandez
Manchester City
01 Hart
02 Zabaleta
04 Kompany
22 Clichy
33 Nastasic
07 Milner
08 Nasri
18 Barry
21 Silva
42 Y Toure
32 Tevez
Substitutes
30 Pantilimon
06 Lescott
13 Kolarov
28 K Toure
14 Garcia
10 Dzeko
16 Aguero
Milesey
Wellbeck, Young, Rooney and RVP!! Fergie going for goals!! Gotta be goals tonight. I went for utd win but also stuck a fiver each on RVP 1-0, 2-0 + 2-1 but think this could be a goal fest now. Really looking forward to it now.
Also went for your top treble Paul – fingers crossed! Good luck everyone :)
Great tips guys. Keep up the good work. Shame about ungrateful twats ruining your great advice.
PRICK LUND – THAT IS ALL!!!