We've invited our very own Greg Browning to tell us his secrets when it comes to betting on corners and profiting from this niche market.
I’ve written a few betting guides over the years and it’s great to be back with a guide on probably one of my favourite betting markets, namely Team Corners. Betting on corners isn’t anything new but, with data much more readily available from a host of different platforms it’s a market that the bookies often struggle to price.
Punters can (and do) often take advantage of that. Team corners has become a massive favourite of mine and has probably been one of my most profitable markets over the last 12 months. Here I'm going to explain why and how you can benefit.
Part 1: Why you should start betting on corners
For the reasons mentioned above, you get some terrific value if you look hard enough and know what you are looking for.
Corner stats to look out for
My checklist includes:
- A side who are underdogs to the win the match
- They regularly hit 4-5 corners a game
- The side they are playing against concede corners regularly
- They're in good form coming into the game
Historic case study: Aberdeen 0-0 Hamilton (6th March 2021)
Hamilton were 6/1 outsiders, but had been on a positive run of results and were hitting some really good numbers in terms of corners (5/9/6/8 in their last four and a high % of their games had seen 4+ corners this season)
They were also playing an Aberdeen side who were really toiling, but the visitors were still priced as big as 6/4 to hit over 3.5 corners
It was a terrific price for a really low corner line and when the bookies priced this, they weren’t factoring in Hamilton’s corners, and instead went by the 1×2 odds.
A high-priced team usually means a generous corners line. By that, I mean odds of around evens for a relatively low number of corners e.g. over 3.5.
Part 2: Sources of information for corners betting
Exploring corners markets and finding data
There are various data sources available but sites such as The Stats Don't Lie are the bar here. They provide a terrific set of stats for each of:
- Total corners for
- Total corners against
- Total match corners
- A corners league table
- Avg per game
- All split by home and away
The holy grail, however, is that you can go into each team and it will show you all of their matches and shows:
- Corners for and against
- Split by first half /second half/total
- Split by home / away / total
It’s not just team corners though, there are a number of other markets outside of the obvious over and under.
- Most corners
- Total corners each half
- Handicap -1 -2
Top tip: You can always look at the clubs that are hitting big numbers, teams like Man City, Rangers etc. but their markets are set ridiculously high, you need 8-9 corners just to get an even-money shot.
I much prefer finding a side that just need to hit 3-4 corners for us to get evens. After all, just about any side has the ability to hit 4 corners in a match.
Part 3: The Science Behind Betting on Corners
Of course, you still need a bit of luck when betting on corners. And like every other betting market, stats and trends are usually a good indicator of which bets to consider. Yet, there are other factors you should investigate when betting on corners.
Team formation/playing style
How a team sets up can have a huge bearing on its corner count. For example, teams that prefer to utilise wingers and smash in crosses from the by-line can produce high corner counts. Looking at heatmaps where available can certainly help.
Look for trends in text commentary
Similarly, teams that do well from set-pieces, with players getting on to balls into the opposition box, tend to do well with corners too. After all, there's no better opportunity to win a corner than from a corner!
Single-goal winning margins with less than 5 mins to play can often produce this scenario, as defending becomes more fraught for the winning side, so there is certainly an in-play avenue to explore.
Study attacking xG
Shots-on-goal stats, as a crucial part of forming a team's xG figure, can also be a good indicator. It stands to reason that the more shots a team has per game the more shots will be deflected or parried away for a corner. As such, look out for teams that buck the trend of having more shots than their league position implies.
