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NOTATION (4.10) overcame a 391-day absence to score at Southwell last Tuesday and a follow up is on the cards at Redcar.
Mark Johnston has the happy knack of improving his middle-distance three-year-olds and Notation can make up for lost time under a 6lb penalty. She ran third on the turf at Nottingham last October, so the soft surface shouldn't present a problem. Top hurdler Cornerstone Lad wasn't knocked about on comeback behind Ben Lilly over course and distance and should strip a good bit sharper on his favoured deep ground.
STEALING SILK (7.15) looks well-handicapped at Newcastle. Nigel Tinkler's filly stepped up on previous efforts when posting a fine third to Twisted Dreams over course and distance in early October. The winner came out to beat in-form Traveller (runs 6.45), so the form stacks up well.
Interest bets for Melbourne cup.
Persan 33-1 ew 7 places (skybet)
16-1 bet365 ew extra 10 places 1/4 odds.
Not good enough to win but in form and low weight could see a top 10.
——————————————–
Stratum Albion 33-1 ew 7 places (skybet)
14-1 bet365 ew extra 10 places 1/4 odds.
Again won’t win as lacks speed of these but Mullins won’t have sent him here for a suntan so again might stay on.
Persan 5th so 2 nice returns on that and wee drift to 40-1 on the sp?.
Mullins horse ran like skippy☹️.
Didn’t even notice Elvis we’ll done
Well done Elvis, nice pick. however price drift won’t mean anything with skybet, no BOG.
Indeed wn.
They don’t offer 7 places for nowt ?
Tiger Moth beat off a 28/1 was that ??
??
While I’m up n all I’m spending today with Breeders cup coming up…
£4.26 on…
Embolden…12.40
Bravesmegame…1.55
Double pays 2.6/1 Bet365
Add Alan’s Notation for £1 treble at 15/1
GL all
Was a good race but the run of Prince of arran the most unluckiest runner in the race no where to go with that ride finishing the best horse in the race having to go so wide
Any bankers today bud
Real shame last night rip AVD never nice to see, sir dragonet got my place though so a happy boy.
2.25 greenatan 2/1 competitive race but defiantly the right fav imo 2pts from me on this
3:33 lord of the glen to place 10/11 Nap/nb 5 pts on this for me
Double is just under 5/1 so a point on this
And a double on both winning at 12/1 also 1 point
9 points stacked.
Some really nice football tonight for goals as well, and just incase anyone hasn’t noticed the legend that is JB regularly posts nfl tips on the site just use the search bar he’s been doing well sure that will come as no surprise to many of you.
Also hope your doing better now Mr F all the best stay safe all and good luck.
Well done with Greenatan hope the second comes in for you
Thanks there loading up and lotg has drifted 5/1 I really don’t understand why guess I’m about to find out lol
Blew the start still won I’m bemused by the betting there almost started questioning if I’d missed something.
All the best everyone who still has a bet on I may have a dabble on one more
Well done on the double ! Sadly I was nt on but still deserved recognition. Yeah I would of been worried about the drift haha but more money for you happy days
Runners declared for the Breeders cup with Bet365 NRNB
Tough races but some crackers!
Campanella at 7/2 for the Juvenile Fillies Turf,Gamine at a skinny 6/4 for the filly and mares sprint and Franks Rockette Ew at 12/1 for the sprint look my best bets.
Few others been on my tracker for a while and i think I’ll forgive Tiz the Laws last run and stick with him for the Classic. Currently JF at 5/2. ??
Get the thinking cap on later can anyone mind JohnBs other are tip?
One was Girl Daddy in the Juvenile Fillies which is 8/1
Yeah I forgot his other tip as well and was going to ask
Morning all well done winners yesterday
Glen forsa 2.25e 10-1
Young John 2.33s 8-1
Dark defender 2.40r 20-1
Honey gg 3.03s 6-1
Archimedes 3.33s 17-2
Ew singles & ew lucky31☘️☘️Gl all
– 8.5
Southwell 14:03 halfway to the moon 11/4 2pt win
Southwell 15:33 arcavallo 4/1 1pt win
Forecast 1st arcavallo
2nd lord of the glen
0.5
-9.5
Sorry stupid phone it’s -9.8
13:10 Redcar – Real Smooth 5.00 1pt
16:07 Newcastle – Howzer Black 15.00 1pt
16:07 Newcastle – Alfred Richardson 9.00 1pt
16:10 Redcar – Jackamundo 9.00 1pt
17:15 Newcastle – Sugar Angel 81.00 1pt
17:45 Newcastle – Stonegarth 7.00 1pt
13:10 Redcar – Real Smooth 5.00 1pt – LOSE
16:07 Newcastle – Howzer Black 15.00 1pt – LOSE
16:07 Newcastle – Alfred Richardson 9.00 1pt – LOSE
16:10 Redcar – Jackamundo 9.00 1pt – LOSE
17:15 Newcastle – Sugar Angel 81.00 1pt – LOSE
17:45 Newcastle – Stonegarth 7.00 1pt – NR
DAY PROFIT: – 5.00 pt
ALL PROFIT: + 15.50 pt
kakamora 12.55 walkers point 1.15 emir de rots 2.15 ew running skeard 3.15 le boizelo 3.25 Well done all winners yesterday
Afternoon All..
EXETER
13.25. .Noble Behast. .11/2. .E/W
15.25. . Killer Clown. .15/2. .E/W
15.55. .Tronada. .4/1
16.25. .Luckys Dream. .13/2. .E/W
GL ALL
Me database lol now that does show how you think. That is funny though
ROG confused by your comments
But you are correct if you dont keep accurate accounts you are just fooling yourself exactly what i was saying about not being honest about points so thanks for agreeing.
you mention being upfront again exactly what i said about being honest about points .Put correct totals up and be upfront so we agree again
you call my remarks snide ???. How is being honest snide ??? .
I study my horses put them on here like other guys do and thats it .Up to others if they even look at them .
Just think like you people should be upfront and honest .
GL
My comments go at top but others alloewd to reply WEIRD
Don’t know what you mean.
insider/database not cry.ing over 0.3 this happens all the time .Which if people need a guide as you say would be unfair as the points are wrong so misguiding these people
you obviously know nothing about betting who would do 3 horses as singles without putting an accumalator on .
anyway carry on aftertiming thats what your good at
you’re replying to the wrong thread thats why your post go ”at the top”, i opened a facebook page with around 2 months of daily tips and a royal ascot week you can go look at if you want, i dont aftertime, if theres been a winner from a duo i rate, i may say to others there a good pairing, as for other’s tips, i respect all here, if capeland for example didnt fall and pisses it then i can only have a negative impact by posting pre race, at least surmising the horse’s form after the race allows casuals an insight into where there money went and may lead to it being spent more wisely who knows, tipsters may also wanna shut me up and studying for an extra hour :D
on a side note theres a youtube channel which does the end of each race, for every meeting and could be a useful tool, its called the racing channel, has like 618 subs, some clips maybe a bit short but still handy
Peoples points total not accurate. People putting points up without totals dosent make sense to me its should be about helping each other not egos.
Bus can u do a nap again. I never no which is ur strongest bet. Gl
As I’ve said before points are a good indicator of form and confidence in a bet.
Nothing to do with ego in my opinion. Also better than putting up stakes which can be reckless.
So why not put up honest totals if not ego ?
That I can’t answer. If totals are wrong it’s not good but probably a mistake rather than ego.
mistakes well one guy in particular makes the same mistake every day then
I Will leave it Mr F but its so unfair and misleading to anyone who follows .
If someone makes a mistake feel free to flag it up but I maintain points works for most if accurate.
If it’s mine, mine was and honest mistake trying to type with freezing cold hand and put rugs on the horses is not ideal : but you are correct mines is -9.8 pts
all them horse names typed correct all those times typed correct all them prices etc typed correct .Pity it was just the points you got wrong.
? have already apologised once database that’s enough for one day enjoy your racing instead
With all due respect busstop I believe the reason you dont advertise even 1pt level stakes is because you ,over the long term make a loss . Its nothing to do with ego . 1pt level stake is a true indication of someone’s worth . For you to belittle that is detrimental to yourself , who are you trying to impress ? If you win , log em , if you dont keep accurate accounts you are just fooling yourself. Whatever is of no importance to me but dont have a go at others who are trying to be upfront. If theres a mistake tell them.
busstop crying over a 0.3pt typo???? i still remember when he claimed his 3 singles as a 3 figure treble. as Mr F says, points are there for an indication, typically of recent form, be grateful that people are actually tracking on a free site?? for new visitors on this site, or people who dont use it daily, points is a must, with so many tipsters and so many selections, it’s hard for a new person to make the most of this page so if they have points to guide them that’s only a bonus, monthly stats are fine too, if pom was +100 2 years ago it doesn’t mean anything today does it, as you said, post your horses, have a discussion, stop worrying about who has an ego, it only seems to be you
Breeders Cup 2020
Keeneland is the venue for the 2020 Breeders Cup on the 6th and 7th November, Keeneland has a one mile and one-sixteenth main dirt oval track and 7 1/2-furlong turf course, the turf track is one of the best turf tracks in the United States,
Championships Race Order
If having a bet please check for NON RUNNER NO BET (NRNB)
The first Championship races on “Future Stars Friday” will be the
$1 million Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (20:12)
$1 million Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (20:52)
$2million Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (21:32)
$1 million Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (22:12)
$2 million Breeders Cup Juvenile (23:03)
Championship Saturday begins with three undercard races followed by the
$1 million Breeders Cup Fillies and Mares Sprint (18:55)
$1 million Breeders Cup Turf Sprint (19:33)
$1 million Breeders Cup Dirt Mile (20:10)
$2 million Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf (20:54)
$2 million Breeders Cup Sprint (21:36)
$2 million Breeders Cup Mile (22:20)
$2 million Breeders Cup Distaff (23:00)
$4 million Breeders Cup Turf (23:40)
$6 million Breeders Cup Classic (00:44)
BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC 2020
• Only five of the last 20 editions of the Classic were won by post-time favorites, ranging from 7/10 odds for American Pharoah in 2015 to 2.80/1 for Zenyatta in 2009. However, 11 of the last 20 Breeders’ Cup Classic winners prevailed at odds of 5.2/1 or less and 14 of the last 20 scored at 7/1 odds or less.
• Recent history has been even less promising for longshot seekers as the last seven winners went off at 6.10/1 odds or less and five of the seven were won by the favorite or second betting choice.
• Six of the last 20 Classic winners paid $20 or more for a $2 win bet: Tiznow ($20.40, 2000), Volponi ($89, 2002), Pleasantly Perfect ($30,40, 2003), Raven’s Pass ($29, 2008), Drosselmeyer ($31.60, 2011), and Fort Larned ($20.80, 2012).
• Looking closer at the $20 winners over the past 20 years, three of the six profiled as closer or closer/stalker types.
• Not surprisingly, the two runners who did not enter the Classic as established Grade 1 winners – Volponi in 2002 and Pleasantly Perfect in 2003 – came from this group of longshots.
• Only one of the six $20 winners came out of a Grade/Group 1 win, and that was European invader Raven’s Pass who won the Classic on a synthetic main track. Two of the others came out of Grade 2 wins and the other three finished in the top three but did not win their final prep.
• The six $20 winners did not boast as strong recent form as other winners, combining to win nine of 23 starts from June through their final prep for a 39.2% strike rate compared with 58.7% for the group as a whole. But they were consistently very good, having run in the top three in 21 of 23 starts (91.3%) during this timeframe.
• Seven horses who preferred to race on or near the lead have won in the last 20 editions of the Classic with four dedicated closers winning during that span.
• Along those lines, the median position of the Classic winner has been fourth/fifth (4.5) and about three lengths back after the opening quarter-mile and fourth/fifth and about 3 ¾ lengths back after a half-mile.
• The deep closers skewed the averages only a bit with the average winner sitting a little better than fifth (4.8) and about four to 4 ¼ lengths back after the first quarter and almost exactly 4 ¼ lengths back on average after a half-mile.
• By early stretch, however, the winner was by median a half-length in front and on average between one-quarter of a length and a half-length in front.
• Six of the last 20 Classic winners were 3-year-olds taking on older horses, and two of those six (Tiznow in 2000, Raven’s Pass in 2008) came from the group of six $20 winners since 2000.
• None of the last 20 Classic winners was older than 5. In fact, the Classic has never been won by a horse older than 5 years old. Zenyatta came the closest when a head short to Blame during her 6-year-old season in 2010.
• Seventeen of the 20 made their final prep race in either New York or Southern California, with 11 Classic winners coming out of a New York prep, five prepping in the Awesome Again (formerly Goodwood) Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Zenyatta won a Grade 1 (Lady’s Secret Stakes) against females at Santa Anita.
• The average winning Equibase Speed Figure for the Breeders’ Cup Classic from 2000 through 2019 was 121.35 with a median of 122. The winning figure ranged from a 113 for Bayern in 2014 to a 130 for Gun Runner in 2017.
• Five of the last 20 editions of the Classic were decided by a neck or less with three decided by a nose (Tiznow over Sakhee in 2001; Mucho Macho Man over Will Take Charge in 2013; and Bayern over Toast of New York in 2014).
• Sixteen of the last 20 Classic winners were bred in Kentucky with two bred in California, one in Florida, and the other in Argentina.
Odds 10/3
TIZ THE LAW 3yo
Pedigree: Constitution – Tizfiz, by Tiznow
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Owner: Sackatoga Stable
Career record: 8 starts – 6 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $2,615,300
Earnings per start: $326,913
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 117
LAST 5 RACES:
2-1-1-1-1
Tiz The Law has a reasonable chance of winning the Classic, he won the Belmont Stakes and enters the Breeders Cup Classic as a contender as his best Equibase Speed Figures make him competitive with Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat, as well as winning the Belmont he has won the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, he was 2nd to Authentic in the Kentucky Derby but was still two lengths clear of third and was running well through the homestretch.
Look for him to stalk the early leaders in fourth or fifth under regular rider Manny Franco, not too far back and outside of horses, before making his move in the far turn.
Odds 10/3
IMPROBABLE 4yo
Pedigree: City Zip – Rare Event, by A.P. Indy
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Career record: 14 starts – 7 wins – 3 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $1,709,520
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 120
LAST 5 RACES:
1-1-1-2-5
Improbable is challenging for favouritism in the Classic, he has had three consecutive Grade 1 victories, starting with a 3 ¼-length win over Higher Power in the Hollywood Gold Cup in June. That was followed by a two-length win over By My Standards and Tom’s d’Etat in the Whitney Stakes in August, and then most recently a visually impressive, off-the-pace 4 ½-length win over Maximum Security in the Awesome Again Stakes on Sept. 26.
He has already beaten the top older horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he should be sitting just off the pace early, ready to pick of the horses in front down the home straight, Big chance
Odds 5/1
MAXIMUM SECURITY 4yo
Pedigree: New Year’s Day – Lil Indy, by Anasheed
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Career record: 13 starts – 10 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $12,251,900
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 123
LAST 5 RACES:
2-1-1-1-1
Maximum Security is the most accomplished horse in the Breeders Cup Classic, he won his first two starts of 2020 for new trainer Bob Baffert in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap and the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic, he was soundly defeated by stablemate Improbable in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes in late September, losing by 4 ½ lengths. since then he has run three good workouts,
He’s 2-for-2 at a mile and a quarter if you count his first-place finish in the 2019 Kentucky Deby that he was disqualified from, and has to be considered as a leading win candidate based on his body of work, Maximum Security should be challenging for the early lead.
Odds 6/1
AUTHENTIC 3yo
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Flawless, by Mr. Greeley
Trainer:Bob Baffert
Career record: 7 starts – 5 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $3,071,200
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 113
LAST 5 RACES:
2-2-1-1-1
Authentic can set the pace or press the pace, he was 6/4 favourite when winning the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Preakness Stakes when beat by Swiss Skydiver, there were doubts about whether he would get distances longer than a mile and an eighth, which was a question mark for him prior to his Derby triumph.
Authentic wont get it all his own way for the early lead as horses like Global Campaign and especially Maximum Security will be challenging him early,
As seen in the Derby and Preakness Authentic has shown he’s a fighter in the stretch.
Odds 7/1
TOM’S D’ETAT 7yo
Pedigree: Smart Strike – Julia Tuttle, by Giant’s Causeway
Trainer: Al Stall Jr.
Career record: 19 starts – 11 wins – 2 seconds – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $1,702,272
Earnings per start: $89,593
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 118
LAST 5 RACES:
3-1-1-1-1
Tom’s d’Etat could be running his last race here, he was a graded stakes winner in 2019 and 2020, and this summer he was briefly the top-ranked Breeders’ Cup Classic contender after his 4 ¼-length rout in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes. In his next start, Tom’s d’Etat was the even-money favorite in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes on Aug. 1 at Saratoga, but stumbled at the break and spotted several lengths to the rest of the field. He rallied in the stretch to secure third behind Improbable and By My Standards in an admirable effort and hasn’t raced since.
On the plus side he has beat Improbable before, he also has a win at Keeneland and has a decent chance at decent odds
Odds 11/1
SWISS SKYDIVER 3yo
Pedigree: Daredevil – Expo Gold, by Johannesburg
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Career record: 11 starts – 6 wins – 3 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $1,792,980
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 109
LAST 5 RACES:
1-1-2-1-1
Swiss Skydiver has the Breeders’ Cup Distaff as her first preference on Nov. 7, but she’s also pre-entered in the Classic, with a final decision to come in the next several days.
She outbattled Kentucky Derby winner Authentic in her most recent start, becoming the sixth filly to win the Preakness Stakes, and overall has amassed an impressive 5-for-9 record this year, if she runs in the Classic she would probably make another aggressive bid for the lead in the backstretch if the opportunity presents itself and has a better chance than most of the field to win this
Odds 20/1
GLOBAL CAMPAIGN 4yo
Pedigree: Curlin – Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy
Trainer: Stanley Hough
Career record: 9 starts – 6 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $781,080
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 109
LAST 5 RACES:
1-1-1-3-1
Global Campaign likes to set the pace or press the pace, he won a grade 3 race as a 3yo last year
In 2020 he has won three out of four starts and scoring back-to-back graded stakes wins heading into the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
He won the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup Stakes in July and then leading at every point of call and drawing clear in the stretch to defeat Tacitus in the Grade 1 Woodward Handicap in early September, he should be looking to set the early pace along with Authentic and Maximum Security in the Classic but others prefered for the win
Odds 25/1
BY MY STANDARDS 4yo
Pedigree: Goldencents – A Jealous Woman, by Muqtarib
Trainer: Bret Calhoun
Career record: 12 starts – 6 wins – 4 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $1,764,430
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 118
LAST 5 RACES:
1-2-2-1-1
By My Standards prefers to stalk the leaders, he has won three Grade 2 stakes races at three different tracks and also finished second in two marquee races, 2nd behind Improbable in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes and runner-up to Tom’s d’Etat in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes. In his latest race, he easily won the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs in September, the Breeders Cup Classic should be run to suit his stalking running style
Odds 33/1
TACITUS 4yo
Pedigree: Tapit – Close Hatches, by First Defence
Trainer: Bill Mott
Career record: 14 starts – 4 wins – 4 seconds – 3 thirds
Career earnings: $2,947,500
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 110
LAST 5 RACES:
3-2-1-4-5
Tacitus has nearly passed $3 million in earnings but is yet to win a Grade 1 race, He is a very consistent racehorse after being placed in the first three in 11 of his 14 starts,
Tacitus is a one-paced runner with plenty of stamina, and if jockey Jose Ortiz keeps enough of that stamina in reserve this well-bred colt could get into contension for a place in the stretch but would be a shock if he wins
Odds 66/1
HIGHER POWER 5yo
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Alternate, by Seattle Slew
Trainer: John Sadler
Career record: 19 starts – 5 wins – 2 seconds – 7 thirds
Career earnings: $1,534,648
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 115
LAST 5 RACES:
3-4-3-4-3
Higher Power won last year’s TVG Pacific Classic but hasn’t won in six starts since then,
He finished third in last year’s Classic but was 8½ lengths behind the winner Vino Rosso,
Look for him to sit near the back of the field through the first mile and then methodically grind into gear with the goal of picking off some horses in the stretch. Stamina is not an issue for Higher Power in this 1 ¼-mile race, but his lack of finishing speed definitely is
Odds 100/1
TITLE READY 5yo
Pedigree: More Than Ready – Title Seeker, by Monarchos
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Career record: 22 starts – 4 wins – 6 seconds – 4 thirds
Career earnings: $514,180
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 114
Pedigree: More Than Ready – Title Seeker, by Monarchos
LAST 5 RACES:
3-5-1-3-2
Title Ready has mostly been running in the Grade 2 and Grade 3 races with a few allowance-optional claiming races mixed in, and he’s amassed more than $500,000 in earnings without winning a stakes race. He faces the biggest test of his career by far here and his only real chance is if they go off too fast as he is a good closer but he would need to put in a career best performance which i cant see happening, even if he has won at Keeneland before
My Prediction
It’s hard to find fault in improbable, He’s 3-for-3 since June, he has the versatility to press or stalk the pace, Improbable should be tough to beat and the most likely favorite.
1st Improbable 10/3
2nd Maximum Security 5/1
3rd Tom’s d’Etat 7/1
2020 Breeders Cup MAIN BETS
BETS ALREADY ADVISED
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies
GIRL DADDY 7/1 bet365
E/W 1/5 odds 3 places
Breeders Cup Juvenile
SITTIN ON GO 10/1 various bookies (now 9/1)
E/W 1/5 odds 3 places
Southwell race1
Beat the heat to win 5l or more 5/1 888
Brutal! About furlong back to 3rd. No more tips from me, the odd one I put up gets turned over! Keep following only.
Breeders Cup Juvenile
* Only four favorites have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in the last 20 years: War Pass (2007), Uncle Mo (2010), Shanghai Bobby (2012), and Game Winner (2018).
* While there have also been five winners between 7-2 and 5-1, that leaves quite a few longshot winners, including eight who crossed the finish line first at 10.50-1 or higher.
* That has helped boost the average odds of the Juvenile winner to 11.53-1 with a median of 6.7-1
* Of the eight double-digit winners, four were higher than 25-1 odds: Action This Day 26.80-1 in 2003; Wilko 28.30-1 in 2004; Vale of York 30.60-1 in 2009; and Storm The Court 45.90-1 in 2019.
* Adding Storm the Court to the fold for this year’s analysis didn’t really skew the data as he replaced 30.30-1 winner Anees from 1999 in the 20-race sample.
* Let’s take a closer look at the double-digit winners, but we’ll start by eliminating from the equation Vale of York, who shipped in from Italy and posted a shocking upset on a synthetic main track.
* All of the other seven double-digit longshots (not counting Vale of York) finished in the top three in their final prep race, but only two won and both of those winners came out of a maiden special weight race score.
* Four of the seven ran third and were beaten by open lengths, with three running third in Grade 1 races and Wilko coming out of a Group 2 race in Europe. So, it might be worth looking closer at the horses who finished 2nd and 3rd in key prep races knowing 2-year-olds can improve dramatically at this time of year.
* Storm the Court inherited an uncontested pace after 9-10 favourite Dennis Moment stumbled badly at the start last year, but the other six longshot winners profiled as stalkers or closers and four of them were eighth or worse after the first quarter-mile and half-mile. (Note: Storm the Court also profiled as a stalker entering the race.)
* These seven double-digit longshot winners (not counting Vale of York) were on average more than 6 ¾ lengths back after a half-mile, but that dramatically changed by early stretch as on average the seven were about a head in front, which to me indicates an explosive turn of foot among this group.
* Six of the seven had only one win to their credit entering the Juvenile. Wilko had two wins from 10 starts, but the other six longshots we are looking at averaged just under three starts (2.83) with a median of three races.
* Six of the seven had posted an Equibase Speed Figure of at least 106 with an average of 107.1 and a median of 108.5.
* look for lightly raced prospects who were either competitive against elite stakes competition or coming off a maiden win. It also helps if they have shown the ability to race off the pace and make a sustained late run.
* four winning favorites War Pass (2007), Uncle Mo (2010), Shanghai Bobby (2012), and Game Winner (2018) – combined for 12 starts before the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and won them all.
* All four capped unbeaten, Eclipse Award-winning campaigns in the Juvenile.
* All four came out of Grade 1 wins and three came out of a victory in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.
* The only one of the four who did not lead from start to finish was Game Winner, who profiled as a stalker entering the 2018 Juvenile. He raced four lengths back in sixth after a half-mile and was within a head of the lead in early stretch.
* Three of the four won by 2 ¼ lengths or more; only Shanghai Bobby, who won by a head in 2012, was seriously challenged in the stretch.
* Only one of the four had previous experience in two-turn races.
* The five winners in the 7-2 to 5-1 range all had different running styles, but all five had a graded stakes win to his credit. Four of the five entered the Juvenile off a graded stakes win – Vindication (2002), Stevie Wonderboy (2005), Nyquist (2015), and Classic Empire (2016) – with the other, Midshipman in 2008, coming off a runner-up finish by less than a length in a Grade 1.
* The five winners in the 7-2 to 5-1 range has won 14 of their 18 lifetime starts entering the Juvenile. Four of the five had a career-best 109 Equibase Speed Figure or better and four of them had experience in two-turn races.
* Eight of the 20 winners came out of a final prep race in California and four came out of the Champagne Stakes.
* All 20 winners were third or better in their final prep race.
* Eighteen of the 20 won or were within three lengths of the winner in their final prep race with only Texas Red (third by 4 ¾ lengths behind American Pharoah in the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes) and Storm the Court (third by 8 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes) serving as exceptions.
* Only two winners were not stakes winners or graded stakes-placed entering the race and they both entered off maiden special wight wins.
* Eighteen of the 20 winners had their final prep race within six weeks of the Breeders’ Cup.
* Nine of the 20 winners had already won a Grade 1 race.
* Running style is not especially important as stalkers/closers have won the majority of the 20 races but six winners profiled as pace/press-the-pace types.
* In 2015, which was the lone previous Breeders’ Cup held at Keeneland, the top two finishers (Nyquist and Swipe) shipped in from Southern California off a top-two finish in the FrontRunner Stakes. The top two from the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (Brody’s Cause and Exaggerator) at Keeneland finished third and fourth, respectively, in the Juvenile.
* The top three finishers in the 2015 Juvenile at Keeneland all were eighth or worse after the first half-mile despite a moderate pace of :47.62.
* 19 of the 20 were bred in Kentucky with Irish-bred Vale of York the lone exception in 2009.
My Prediction
1st SITTIN ON GO 10/1 (Already Advised as a main bet at 10/1)
2nd ROMBAUER 25/1
3rd JACKIES WARRIOR 13/8
Superb JohnB m8,thanks for the info. ??
Just one thing Tiz the Law was 2nd last run mate not 1st.
Only know as I was on at 4/5 then in again like a twat on holiday in Portugal at 4/6. Beers were taken obviously.
Had him in a double with Gamine who was a let down but they should be ripe for the weekend.
Was on Jackies Warrior a few weeks ago and is in my tracker as impressive and Rushing Fall has done me a good few turns I think he’s going for 5 in a row at 3/1?
I’ll get through all that later and could probably figure out your thoughts but I’ll just ask..
Any thoughts on Ascot winner Campanella with Dettori on board again and the brits Kameko and Golden Pal?
Cheers
Not yet gone through everything I wrote again but he was 2nd to Authentic last time out in the Kentucky Derby, if I wrote different it’s an error by me, if it’s the last 5 races part the latest race is on the left, thanks
I like Campanelle and Kamiko
Yeah it’s last 5 races bit. No problem just to get it spot on ,sure the rest is.
Glad you like Kameko I seen an interview on ATR and jockeys very confident after last win.
Campanella is probably my best bet at 7\2 after his last win,flying machine!
Cheers John
Espirit Du Large Exeter 14.25 7/1
Jersey Bean Exeter 15.25 8/1
Twisted Dreams Newcastle 18.45 7/2
E/W Treble
Dawson city 3-25 Exeter 33-1 ew extra 7 places (80-1 sp).
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Update
Anyone who backed Girl Daddy when I advised will still get 3 places each-way even though we are now down to 7 runners
Been a good night and day and I don’t fancy giving the bookies there’s money back despite seeing some good bets at Newcastle so a place Acca for intrest
4:07 toro dorado 8/11 4 places looks decent to me
6:15 fighter pilot 10/11 2 places
6:45 rum runner 5/6 3 places Nap
7:15 stealing silk I fancy to win but a place will do not being greedy 1/4 5 places
8:15 star cracker 15/8 5 places NB
20/1 1 point
1 point on Alan’s double
And 2 points e/w star cracker
So I believe around 20+ points today
4 more staked and the rest straight in the Xmas kitty best of luck all
Just thought I’d mention with SB changes there rules on BoG if they offer extra places they are now clearly offering more places in many races so the place market could have some real value between now and when they inevitably change this ruling back because this wasn’t a very intelligent move on there part.
GL GUYS
Starfighter Newcastle 18.45 9/1 E/W
Well done all winners today.
Great right up on the breeders cup JohnB
I’ll be following
Well done all winners today.
Great right up on the breeders cup JohnB
I’ll be following
Navajo Spring 5:45
11/4
Stealing Silk looked to have activated the nitrous oxide in the last couple of furlongs there. Amazing run. Nice one Alan.
Katelli 7-45 Newcastle 16-1 bet365 ew extra 5 places (40-1 sp)
4th ?
Good work as always ?
Newcastle- 8:15 herons nest 12/1 e/w good luck all
Star cracker 8-15 Newcastle 16-1 bet365 ew extra 6 places 1/4 odds
Not a fan of these quick races but it’s off my tracker which I’ve gave it a big thumbs up and at 5/2 Bet365 while 11/10 on Skybet?
I think it’s worth a bet…
Zia Park – R3 Mountain Rainbow.. 5/2(***}
GL all as it’s onto the football
Quick as a grey hound race ha
Well done getting 5/2 not a bad bet in the end