Manchester City v Manchester United
Premier League. Kick-Off 4.30pm. Live on Sky Sports
SO when was the last time Manchester United were 8/1 (Betfair) to win a Premier League match? Never is the short answer. And it's surprising to see such a huge price for a fixture that they actually have a precent decent record in of late.
United have won 3 of their last five (W3 D1 L1) visits to the Etihad. They overcame the 7/2 odds back in April, coming back from two goals down to stun their rivals and win 3-2 thanks to two Paul Pogba goals and a winner from Chris Smalling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf0zt-e-KaU
On the overall head-to-head City have won this fixture just twice in the last ten meetings (W2 D2 L6).
The clash of Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho always provides a fascinating sub-plot whenever their team's clash. They've faced each other 21 times with the Catalan having the upper hand. Pep can lay claim to 10 victories versus Jose's five. It's a rivalry that has featured matches between Barcelona v Real Madrid, Barcelona v Inter Milan, Bayern Munich v Chelsea and of course Man Utd v Man City.
City's recent form has been irresistable. They top just about every chart possible. Top of the table. Unbeaten (W9, D2). Best home attack (24 goals scored). Best attack overall (33). And best defence (four conceded). They're also unbeaten in a remarkable 53 Premier League matches against sides starting the game outside the top four (W44, D9).
Man Utd fall firmly in to that category as they find themselves eighth in the table. The Red Devils' last two matches have shown there's life in the old dog yet though. They've come from behind in each to win, scoring late winners, reminiscent of so many victories under Sir Alex Ferguson.
Jose Mourinho has been at his prickly best this season. He's been a man under pressure and to be fair to him he's come out fighting. He'll love the prospect of going in to the lion's den today and those huge odds are gnawing away at me. For all their flaws, and for all of City's brilliance, Mourinho's men are never 8/1 shots.
I can't be backing City at 2/5. It's a ridiculous price so the value has to be with the red half of the city. I wouldn't talk you out of a small stake interest on the United win but I'm keener on getting with United on the Asian Handicap markets.
You can have better than even money (2.350 – 27/20) on them with a goal of a start. That means you'd get you money back if Man City win by a single goal, and a win if it's a draw or a United win.
For that bet to land I think it'll be crucial for United to keep City at bay in the first period of the game. It's a concern that United have kept just one clean sheet in theleague this season but Jose is famous for parking the bus and I don't think they'll be too adventurous early on. I'll be backing no goal before 24:00 mins at 5/6.
Recommended Bet
- Man Utd +1.0 on the Asian Handicap 27/20 Bet365
- No goal before 24:00 mins 5/6 Bet365
