GRAND NATIONAL: HOW TO PICK THE WINNER

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FEW races are as rich in history as the Aintree Grand National. And few races have the vast array of stats and trends that surrounds this, the most famous in the world.

Every year I try to use those historical pointers to narrow the field of 40 runners to a handful of serious contenders all based on the characteristics of previous winners. For me it’s as good a method as any when trying to pick the winner of the Grand National.

So here goes with a statistical dissection of the field to find the one horse that I’ll be lumping on…

WEIGHT

The first qualifying criteria to consider is the weight the horse will be carrying. 2010 winner Don’t Push It is the only horse in the last 28 years to carry more than 11-1 to victory. All other winners over that period have carried between 10-0 & 11-1, including Ballabriggs last year (11-0), and I’m happy to stay with that trend so that means we can discount a large section of the field including the likes of last year’s winner Ballabriggs and favourite Synchronised, AP McCoy's mount who is carrying a whopping 11-10. Also falling at this hurdle are Weird Al, Calgary Bay, Neptune Collonges, Alfa Beat, Planet of Sound, Black Apalachi, Deep Purple and Junior – all of whom are carrying more than 11-1.

AGE

The next statistic to be negotiated is age. 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 9 or 10 although broadly speaking the favoured age band is 8 – 12. Anything under 8 and the horse is deemed too inexperienced, whereas anything over 12 and it’s quite simply too old to be expected to compete against some of the younger guns.

So horses ruled out on the basis of being outwith the 8 – 12 age band include are Viking Blond, Tharawaat, Hello Bud and Organisedconfusion.

CLASS

All winners in the last 19 years were officially rated between 136 & 155 in the Class bands. This kinda makes sense, as anything rated under 136 shouldn’t be good enough to win the race. But why not anything above 155? I’m not sure. If a horse is above that rating then why can’t it win?

So that I don’t exclude any horses that are rated above 155, I’m just going to discard those that are under 136.

Only one of the remaining field is under is 136 and that's In Compliance so he's crossed off the list.

DISTANCE

National winners have generally already proven their staying power in previous races. Although the Grand National is another step up, every winner since 1988, with the one exception of Monty’s Pass, have won a chase over at least 3m 1f prior to running in the Grand National.

The pace out there on the course is relentless and it’s highly unlikely that a horse that’s yet to win over a significant distance will do so for the first time on the big day.

So this time it’s horses that have yet to win over 3 miles that are eliminated. Becauseicouldntsee, Quiscover Fontaine, Seabass and Tatenen are ruled out.

BIG RACE WINS

In the past 19 years all but one of the winners had won a race worth at least £19,000 prior to arriving at Aintree. Even the one that hadn’t, Party Politics, had finished 2nd twice in events worth £23,000 and £37,000. This is a good indicator of big race experience – something that’s vital if you’re going to win the National.

Of the remaining 19 runners, All but 3 of them have previously won races worth in excess of £20,000. Goodbye Midnight Haze, Postmaster and Swing Bill.

FORM

Form is always important in assessing any race and none more so that the Grand National. All winners since 1988 have won previously in either January, February, March or April. That being the case, there are 7 horses that have yet to register a win this season so they fall at this obstacle; Chicago Grey, Rare Bob, Mon Mome, The Midnight Club, Arbor Supreme, State of Play and Vic Venturi.

That leaves us 10 in contention and it’s getting really difficult to seperate them now. They are According to Pete, Shakalakaboomboom, West End Rocker, On His Own, Always Right, Cappa Bleu, Treacle, Sunnyhillboy, Killyglen and Giles Cross.

JUMPING ABILITY

Only three horses have yet to fall in their entire career and there’s no doubting you’ve got to know your way over a fence or two to complete the gruelling intree course. Those are West End Rocker, On His Own and Shakalakaboomboom and those are my final three picks to win the Grand National.

If push comes to shove I'll side with West End Rocker since he's the only one of the three that falls bang in the middle of the preferred 9-10 age range.

GRAND NATIONAL TIPS

1. West End Rocker 14-1 (888Sport, blueSq)
2. Shakalakaboomboom 20-1 (Betfred, BetVictor)
3. On His Own 16-1 (Blue Sq, William Hill)
4. Killyglen 18-1 (Skybet)

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